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Thursday 27 October 2022

5:45 Southwell Racing Tips (28th October)


MAMILLUS hasn't any form on this surface at this distance and is usually held up but I'm not sure it can win this race but I also couldn't lay it. 

SPARTAN FIGHTER wouldn't normally be well drawn in stall 12 but with no other known front runners in the race it could lead here but needs to improve time wise to win this race.

ARMY OF INDIA has won over this distance in a slow run race but can struggle to stay the distance with a decent early gallop but I doubt it will be of value to lay. 

ANOTHER INVESTMENT hasn't run on an artificial surface before but as its best times on turf were slow it would need to improve for the switch to win this race and might be worth laying.

GOLDEN APOLLO has the fastest time recorded here in this race since the switch to the Tapeta surface and has the stall one draw sp should be able to get a good early position.

SHOWTIME MAHOMES another making its AW debut and has only slow times on turf and may be better when racing over a shorter distance. 

SERGEANT TIBBS is 0-6 on an artificial surface and it races as though a longer distance would suit it better. 

BELLE FOURCHE won over today's course and distance in a relatively slow run race and usually likes to track the leaders and could possibly make the frame if others falter. 

KIND REVIEW has a time from Newcastle in 2021 that would make it top rated on this surface but has been well below that level since and has only poor recent form to its name. 

MEDIA GUEST looks as though a shorter distance suits it much better and may struggle here to stay and one to lay if of value to do so. 

*BELLAGIO MAN is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings and is my top rated using just 2022 ratings on this Tapeta surface but elsewhere. 

DARK SHOT has only won once from 19 races on the AW tracks also been in poor form recently and I expect it will be an outsider in this race. 

SUMMARY: I'm hoping that both Another Investment 15/2 and Media Guest 7/1 are of value to lay in this race (must be 9/1 and less sp) while I will be backing two horses in this race, GOLDEN APOLLO 4/1 in stall 1 can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and will hopefully be able to get a clear run along the rails while BELLAGIO MAN 6/1 from stall 3 is usually held up for a late run and with a clear passage should be thereabouts at the finish.


Golden Apollo 4/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Another Investment +1pt, Media Guest +1pt

Total on the day 0pts

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