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Showing posts with label Bellagio Man. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bellagio Man. Show all posts

Sunday, 4 June 2023

7:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (5th June)

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div I

A class 4 sprint with 9 runners of which 4 have been known to lead before but it looks likely they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. Secret Moment, like a visit to spinning vegas casino, might be a better prospect over further while the top weight Twilight Madness will need to improve time wise to win this race, Gold Medal is my 3rd top rated and could be the one to set the pace to this race and could make the frame, Tyger Bay is my 2nd top rated and is usually either held up in midfield or at the rear of the field before trying to stay on strongly nearing the finish and my top rated horse Bellagio Man is another hold up type and this race should provide the fast early pace this one likes to aim at. 

Each Way Bet: BELLAGIO MAN 14/1 8th (-2pts) , Bet GOLD MEDAL 9/2 6th (-1pt)

Lay TWILIGHT MADNESS 5/1 (+1pt) + SECRET MOMENT 3/1 (-3.33pts)

Total -5.33pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 Div II

I can see 3 known front running types in this 2nd division but in the make-up of this race it could be won from the front, Brasil Power may be better when racing over a longer distance and the same might apply to Rich Rhythm, like top online casino games, while Mohi seems to do its best when racing on the Polytrack surface. A Sure Welcome and Obtain my 3rd and 2nd top rated horses both like to track the leaders and could then stay on to make the frame so might be worth backing each way but if Aberama Gold can reproduce its best from the front it ought to lead all the way here and from stall 2 it should be able gain control of the rails which will help its cause. 

Bet: ABERAMA GOLD 4/1 1st +4pts 

Lay MOHI 4/1 (+1pt) + BRASIL POWER 9/4 (+1pt)

Total +6pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00 

The 3rd of 3 sprints at this course today but this time I can only see 2 possible pacesetters in the shape of Peachey Carnehan but stall 11 isn't really ideal or Dark Design who can lead but is versatile with its racing tactics but being drawn in stall 1 it could be a good opportunity to try and win from the front but both would need to improve time wise to win this race. If May Remain is of value I would look to lay it as it seems better over a shorter distance, while Danzart hasn't made the frame in 6 previous runs on an artificial surface so another potential lay. Tantastic is my 3rd top rated but can struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace but might be ok in this race, Admirable Lad likes to track the leaders and is my 2nd top rated, Red Alert hasn't been in the best of form recently but recorded a rating over this course and distance last year that would see it winning this race with a bit too spare. 

Small Each Way Bet: RED ALERT 100/1  Unp (-2pts)

Lay MAY REMAIN 7/1 (NA) + DANZART 9/4 (-1.625pts)

Total -3.625pts

Total on the day -2.95pts

Monday, 13 March 2023

7:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (14th March)

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

A class 6 sprint with 9 runners and a couple of known front running types although I think Two Summers only leads when nothing else wants to and it can then set its own slightly slower pace and wont be allowed that luxury here and might need this run for fitness. Storm Master may need further to shine and will be a lay if a single figure price, while the top weight Slainte may prefer a slower surface but if the surface is riding on the slow side then it could have a chance as the slower going is a great leveller so I have to hope the surface rides normal. DEPUTISE 8/1 is my top rated using a Wolverhampton rating from 2022 but hasn't won a race since 2018 which is off-putting but could get back to winning ways here but because of the amount of time since its last win it cannot be my sole bet in this race, MERRY SECRET 12/1 usually stays on at the business end of races over this distance and is 2nd top on my figures but this one might need this run for fitness as it usually needs a run or 2 to get fit again after a break, GUNNERSIDE 4/1 is only 3rd top but is the one i expect will set the pace to this race and I can see it leading all the way here and might well have been my sole bet and i might favour it stake wise when I place my bets.

Merry Secret 12/1 1st +12pts  
Gunnerside 4/1 2nd -1pt 
Deputise 20/1 6th -1pt 

Total +10pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

A full house of 14 for this class 4 sprint and theres 3, Royal Parade, Swayze and Westmorian, confirmed front running types amongst them and strangely i have them all marked down as horses I couldn't lay and might be hidden dangers so if you fancy any of the trio I wouldn't put you off backing it but to me it means my stakes will be kept to a minimum. Brazen Bolt 15/2 seems to need further to show its best and would be a lay if a single figure price near the off, The Green Man 11/2 won last time out at Kempton when the surface was riding slow so may have been flattered and would need to improve a good few spots on its best Tapeta rating from Southwell to win this race, Another Investment is my 4th top rated so might be worth a small each way bet, if of value to do so (you as an individual will have to decide what price you would want before backing each way). Fortamour runs as though further would suit it better so should be staying on strongly nearing the finish but maybe a little too late for the win but with a clear run it could make the frame. Straits Of Moyle sits in 2nd top spot and is usually held up in midfield or the rear of the field for a late run and its 4th place last time out might indicate a return to form but my money will be riding on BELLAGIO MAN 9/2 who won last time out 19 days ago and has been found a good opportunity to follow up in this race. 

Bellagio Man 8/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Brazen Bolt +1pt

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

Class 6 race with 11 runners with both Whiteandblue and Cool Lightning (now a non-runner) liking to lead but I doubt either can win the race they might even struggle to make the frame but you can never say never especially if one of them is allowed an easy lead but if a single figure price I would look to lay them. Blackjack is my 4th top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, I've got 3 horses all with the same rating at the top of my list, MY BOY JACK 9/2 who can deploy any tactics apart from setting the pace and is in tip top form having won last time out 18 days ago but the top class jockey is 0-3 when riding for the stable, IRELAND'S EYE 10/1 moves to joint top spot courtesy of the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim and likes to track the leaders, AUTUMN ANGEL 7/2 also won last time out so again is in tip top form and this one also moves to co-top spot courtesy of the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim. How I am meant to split this trio I have no idea, there's nothing particularly weak or strong in their trainer/jockey stats so I will have to dutch the trio.

My Boy Jack 9/2 2nd -1pt
Ireland's Eye 10/1 3rd -1pt
Autumn Angel 7/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Whiteandblue +1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day +8pts

Thursday, 1 December 2022

5:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (2nd December)

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

A nine runner class two conditions five furlong dash where the early pace might well be set by Fine Wine 14/1 but time wise this one would need to improve a good few spots but never say never if allowed an easy lead. Art Power 9/4 is dropped in class to run in this race but its best form has come over 6 furlongs and if a short price might be worth the risk of taking it on with a lay bet, Logo Hunter 7/4 is also dropped in class here and won in a fast time on Polytrack but hasn't run on this Tapeta surface before so not 100% sure what to expect here but if taking to the surface if could go very well indeed and this pair are forecast to be the front two in the betting. The only other horse forecast to be a single figure price is TONE THE BARONE 10/1 (EW) who is my top rated and if fit enough to do itself justice after a break of 146 days looks at least the value call and it has won before when coming back from a break so I'm hoping it fires on all cylinders in this race and of course at the price it has to be an each way wager. 

Tone The Barone 20/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bet Art Power +1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

A field of 13 for this sprint where both Count D’Orsay and Captains Bar have been known to lead if nothing else wanted to so I think the early pace will be set by Shallow Hal 9/2 but hasn't shown good form at this course since 2020, it won last time out at Chelmsford where it led but set a relatively slow pace but I don't think it will be allowed that luxury here so might be worth taking on if a short enough price, Pockley 7/1 ran well finishing 2nd 3 days ago and comes out 4th top rated in this race so could go well again here, Embour 4/1 who can be held up or track the leaders is my 3rd top rated but looks too short in the market, Ballyare 20/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but that's using a rating from 2021. My money will be riding on BELLAGIO MAN 5/1 who has been in the frame on all of its last 3 races winning one of them and has been found a good opportunity to add to its tally of wins in this race. 

Bellagio Man 10/1 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.45 Div I

A full house of 14 runners with the two at the top of the handicap having been known to lead before but I doubt either will prevail for the win. I will look to lay Al Suil Elle 5/1 who needs to improve time wise and might prefer a longer distance, Ischia is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and could make the frame and maybe an each way punt if a big price, at the bottom of the handicap is Kraken Power who is a hold up type and comes out 2nd top rated on my figures so could be another each way punt and I will also be taking a punt on DEPUTISE 7/1 (EW) who was a beaten favourite last time out and could remedy that here, it can be held up or track the leaders and its stall 12 draw is fine and the trainer has a 20% win ratio at this course but the stable hasn't been firing recently which is a little concerning but if an each way price all the better. 

Deputise 11/1 2nd +1.75pts 

Total +1.75pts

Total on the day -0.25pts

Thursday, 27 October 2022

5:45 Southwell Racing Tips (28th October)


SOUTHWELL 5.45 

MAMILLUS hasn't any form on this surface at this distance and is usually held up but I'm not sure it can win this race but I also couldn't lay it. 

SPARTAN FIGHTER wouldn't normally be well drawn in stall 12 but with no other known front runners in the race it could lead here but needs to improve time wise to win this race.

ARMY OF INDIA has won over this distance in a slow run race but can struggle to stay the distance with a decent early gallop but I doubt it will be of value to lay. 

ANOTHER INVESTMENT hasn't run on an artificial surface before but as its best times on turf were slow it would need to improve for the switch to win this race and might be worth laying.

GOLDEN APOLLO has the fastest time recorded here in this race since the switch to the Tapeta surface and has the stall one draw sp should be able to get a good early position.

SHOWTIME MAHOMES another making its AW debut and has only slow times on turf and may be better when racing over a shorter distance. 

SERGEANT TIBBS is 0-6 on an artificial surface and it races as though a longer distance would suit it better. 

BELLE FOURCHE won over today's course and distance in a relatively slow run race and usually likes to track the leaders and could possibly make the frame if others falter. 

KIND REVIEW has a time from Newcastle in 2021 that would make it top rated on this surface but has been well below that level since and has only poor recent form to its name. 

MEDIA GUEST looks as though a shorter distance suits it much better and may struggle here to stay and one to lay if of value to do so. 

*BELLAGIO MAN is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings and is my top rated using just 2022 ratings on this Tapeta surface but elsewhere. 

DARK SHOT has only won once from 19 races on the AW tracks also been in poor form recently and I expect it will be an outsider in this race. 

SUMMARY: I'm hoping that both Another Investment 15/2 and Media Guest 7/1 are of value to lay in this race (must be 9/1 and less sp) while I will be backing two horses in this race, GOLDEN APOLLO 4/1 in stall 1 can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and will hopefully be able to get a clear run along the rails while BELLAGIO MAN 6/1 from stall 3 is usually held up for a late run and with a clear passage should be thereabouts at the finish.

*NR 

Golden Apollo 4/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Another Investment +1pt, Media Guest +1pt

Total on the day 0pts