6:20 Southwell Racing Tips (6th December)

SOUTHWELL 6.20 Div I

An 11 runner class 6 sprint with just 2 front running types Sir Rodneyredblood is one of them but sits just outside my top 4 ratings so I doubt it can hold on for the win but never say never, Carlton and Co 5/1 is still a maiden after 8 runs but has made the frame 3 times but would need to improve on its best course and distance rating to win this race. Dark Shot my 4th top rated won the time before its last run which was a poor effort and likes to track the leaders, Show Me A Sunset who usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish is my 3rd top rated with Sir Gregory sitting in 2nd top spot, RATTLING 5/2 has never run at this course but has won 3 times on this surface at Wolverhampton and its the other possible pacesetter and from stall 2 it should be able to gain control of the rails and once hitting the front it ought to prove too hard to catch. 

Rattling 6/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 6.50 Div II

This division by far looks the better race on paper but with only Pepsi Cat having been known to lead it might not be the fastest of races, Brazen Idol 3/1 has been in good form lately but its win at Wolverhampton was a slow time and it might be a better prospect on the Polytrack surface so might be worth risking a lay on it, especially if it is to the fore in the betting. Kath's Toyboy likes to track the leaders and is my 3rd top rated, Starsong is my 2nd top rated on times from either Wolverhampton or Newcastle and also on just course and distance ratings and that also applies to my top rated horse as it comes out in top spot on both sets of figures,CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 who won nicely when I backed it last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up here. 

Captain Vallo 4/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet brazen Idol +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.20 

What should be a nice class 3 dash only spoilt by having half of the 10 runner field being 3yo’s who could still improve with experience, there are 3 known front running types in the race which always helps with analysing the race. Of the 3 front running types, Papa Dont Preach, Mustaffiz and Khabib the latter could be the one to do best of them as its my 4th top rated, if Dusky Prince 10/1 is a single figure price near the off its one that I would look to lay as it might be outclassed at this level, I think that Silky Wilkie 4/1 is a better horse over a longer distance and is only 3rd top rated on course and distance times and has only a slow time recorded on this Tapeta surface at Newcastle so might be worth the risk to lay it if the early tissue prices are to be believed. Stone Of Destiny is my 3rd top rated with So Smart sitting in 2nd top spot although this ones figures were recorded in lower class races and hasnt won from 5 previous runs on an artificial surface. My money will be riding on ALLIGATOR ALLEY 11/4 who has had 5 runs on an artificial surface (AW) and has been placed in 3 of them and this looks an ideal opportunity for it to register its 1st AW win, since the new surface was laid here the trainer has had a 19% win ration and the jockey an 18% win ratio and has been running in higher class races lately so this drop in class might be the catalyst to it getting rid of its AW maiden tag.

Alligator Alley 11/4 1st +2.75pts

Total +2.75pts 

Total on the day +1.75pts

6:25 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (28th November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.25 Div I

The first division of a 6 furlong class 5 race with eleven runners where four of them have been known to lead before so that should ensure its a true run race, one of them Ahlawi 6/1 hasn't any distance form on this surface apart from Southwell but its best rating came on the Polytrack surface so may be worth opposing, two others Bare Necessity and Ooh Is It both need to improve time wise to win this race so Bezzas Lad 33/1 may do best of the front runners but hasn't been in good form lately but if leading might make the frame but it would be a risk to even back it . Alcazan 6/1 is outside my top four ratings and looks as though further would suit it better so might also be worth taking on. Dark Shot recorded a time at Southwell which could make it competitive and this is a drop in class from four to five yet still carries bottom weight so cannot be dismissed easily. Algheed and Lilkian are my joint third top rated horses, the former is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and could possibly lead i nothing else wants to but from stall ten if pushed to try and lead could spend too much energy so i expect it will be held back in the early stages while the latter who likes to track the leaders is well drawn to do that from stall three. I will be putting my money on PORFIN 16/1 (EW) who is my top rated and is usually held up for a late run and with so many early speedsters in the race it could play into his hands so could make a decent each way prospect and a chance to win as well. 

Porfin 16/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.55 Div II 

Just ten runners in this second division but with just two known front running types and they have been drawn in stalls one and two so I expect it will be a fast run race for the class and surely nothing else will try to lead, Rebel Redemption isn't in my top four ratings so may have to give way at some point to RATTLING 7/1 who comes out in second top spot on my figures and if this one is allowed to set the pace before kicking from home in the straight it could prove very hard to catch the apprentice jockeys seven pound claim pushes it up to joint top spot and a front running horse is the easiest of rides for a less experienced jockey so it could lead all the way and this three year old has to be backed for that reason. So Grateful 9/2 hasn't any form at this course but is top rated using times recorded at Southwell but would need to improve on its best Newcastle rating to win this race but cannot be dismissed lightly. Sir Gregory is my fourth top rated and can be held up or track the leaders, Astro Jakk 7/1 comes out in third top spot and likes to track the leaders before trying to stay on at the finish so could make the frame but if EL HOMBRE 9/1 who is my top rated decides to put its best hoof forwards it could pick up the leader nearing the finish and hasn't been in bad form lately but has been known to spring back to form without warning previously so could repeat that here my main concern is the stall nine draw and the fact that the jockey is zero from seventeen when riding for the family,s stable. It is one of those races where I have to go with the two bets to cover the angles of a front running type and one that stays on strongly at the finish.

Rattling 15/2 1st +7.5pts

El Hombre 11/1 3rd -1pt 

Total +6.5pts

Total on the day  +4.5pts