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Showing posts with label Wild flower. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wild flower. Show all posts

Thursday, 13 August 2020

2:50 Pontefract Racing Tips (14th August)


PONTEFRACT 2.50 

CHECK THE GOING BEFORE BETTING. 

In all reality, I should be leaving this race alone as there is too little form for me to be confident with any selection. However, there's one horse that stands out on those that I can analyse properly and it looks a stupidly big price on the tissue prices so I will be having a small and I do mean small, each way punt on *LADY OF ARAN at 33/1 (EW). 


*NR


CHESTER 3.40 

There's a few with limited form to work with which reduces the size of any stakes, the early pace could well be set by Jack The Truth and it could easily do enough from the front to hold on for a place and if allowed a soft lead it could possibly pinch the race but I will stick my pennies on FOX HILL 9/1 (EW) who will likely track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and being drawn next door to the probable frontrunner it should get a good tow into the race and worth an each-way bet at the price. 

Fox Hill 16/1 6th (-2pt)

Total -2pts 

CHESTER 4.10

This 2nd division has a few less unexposed sorts but its still a tricky looking race, there's 3 that have been known to lead before and maybe Alsvinder can do best of those racing to the fore and its best time from 2018 would make it my 2nd top-rated but its form since then hasn't been up to that level but I will be backing MUTBAAHY 4/1 who will be trying to run on strongly at the business end of the race and if reproducing its best time from Catterick this year would see it back in the winner's enclosure. 

Mutbaahy 11/2 6th 

Total -1pt


CHEPSTOW 7.05

There's only 5 runners and 2 of them like to set the pace, looking at the tissue prices I am surprised Zapper Cass is forecast to be the favourite as this distance sometimes looks to be on the short side for it, Secretfact is top-rated by 2lb’s using its 2019 time but hasn't been in good form so far this year and I am thinking that PINK FLAMINGO 2/1 could lead here and if doing so it could be very hard to catch. 

Pink Flamingo 85/40 4th (-1pt)

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 7.55

Will all 16 runners take part? I can see 3 that have been known to lead so it should be a true run race, looking at the lightly raced types in the race none seem fancied according to the tissue prices which leaves me with my top 4 ratings, WILD FLOWER 7/1 is 4th top rated the jockey is making their debut for the stable but the stable is 0-14 at this course, TILSWORTH ROSE 13/2 is in 3rd top spot and is one of the frontrunners it could go very well from the front BUT again its a jockey making their debut for the stable but the trainer's record is poor at 0-26, the topweight KATHERINE PLACE 5/1 is 2nd top rated in this instance the jockey is 0-2 for the stable but the trainer's record is 0-12 here at Lingfield, my top rated is DARK SIDE DREAM 10/1 and should be my selection, the trainer is 1-12 at this track but the jockey is 0-9, so as you can see my top 4 all have negatives against their names, I will probably go with dutching all 4 of them but slightly in favour of my top rating. 

Tilsworth Rose 13/2 1st Betfair SP (9.69) + EX £40.50
Katherine Place 5/1 2nd 
Wild Flower 15/2 5th 
Dark Side Dream 20/1 7th 

Total: +3.5pts 

Total on the day: -.5pts

Tuesday, 5 November 2019

2:00 Southwell Winning Racing Tips (5th November)


SOUTHWELL 2.00 

A full house of 14 taking part in this race but only 4 of them have done a time fast enough to register on my speed figures, Dandy Highwayman is my 4th top rated but it looks to be the only natural frontrunning type in the race and from stall 7 it could get across to the rail or very close to it and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch for most of these, First Excel who is on a losing streak of 16 comes out 3rd best on my figures but is in the widest stall so may need some luck, the 3year old Jill Rose is top rated on c/d times and 2nd top overall but the trainers 0-13 record at this course doesnt inspire confidence but it could go well, my top rated on overall figures is WILD FLOWER 5/1 but its best time did come from Lingfield and if going back to 2017 it had an even faster time from Wolverhampton, it has won on turf on good to soft ground so could easily take to this surface and if doing so could complete the hattrick. 

Wild Flower 14/1 Unp

SOUTHWELL 2.30 

This is a strange race and with seven 3-year-olds in the race it makes it very hard to analyse to a satisfactory conclusion and there's one even bigger reason why I'm going to leave this race alone is because I'm not sure of all the entrants preferred racing style so the make-up of this race is very muddled and best to save my money for another race. 

KEMPTON 6.40

Only 8 runners with just one known frontrunner in the race but Velvet Moon could be setting the race up for a finishing type, Excellent George comes out 4th best on c/d times but 2nd top if using its best Chelmsford time, Benny And The Jets is 3rd best on c/d times but that was from 2018 and may struggle to stay if there's a fast early pace, LAST PAGE 8/1 only produced a slow time when finishing 2nd over this c/d and could struggle a little if there's a really fast early pace but that may not happen here and the jockey booking looks a positive move, BIG LACHIE 7/1 has only slow times to its name over this c/d but a time from Lingfield this year would see it winning this race quite cosily but the jockeys 0-8 record for this stable is a little off-putting enough for me to have to go with 2 selections and I will split my stake between them both because they both look better value than I was expecting.

Last Page 8/1 1st 
Big Lachie 10/1 4th 

Wednesday, 4 September 2019

8:40 Chelmsford Racing Tips (5th September)


CHELMSFORD 8.40 

A maximum field of 14 here in this class 6 race where I can find negatives against most of the 8 runners with a time fast enough to register on my graphs, Prince Rock is still a maiden after 18 runs but has gone close a few times and hasnt been as good this year as last timewise, Spennys Lass has an 18 run losing streak to overcome and the jockey booking doesnt seem to be a positive booking, Good Business hasnt been in good form so far this year on the allweather tracks, the topweighted Englishman has a 15 run losing streak against its name and this will be its debut on the allweather and could be dangerous if taking to it but my money will split between the 2 horses in the field that have been known to set the pace, TARSEEKH 6/1 only has a slow time at this course but its best Lingfield time would put it in the mix, it can lead if allowed to set a slow pace but also looks as though further might suit it better, im not 100% sure what to expect here but it has been in decent form lately and that might make the difference, my other selection is WILD FLOWER 22/1 who hasnt shown much lately but even though its in stall 10 it could lead here and that could be crucial to its chances of winning and the connections have booked a good 3lb claiming apprentice taking their first ride for the stable but who could make it count and a small each way punt might pay dividends.

Tarseekh 6/1 4th 
Wild Flower 33/1 7th