Friday's Racing Tips (29th March)

2 sprints for me to analyse today (I'm only doing class 3 and above races nowadays because of the lack of consistency in the lower class races) 

NEWCASTLE 3.35 

A bit of a hard race to analyse and I was going to leave this race alone until something caught my eye. there doesn't seem to be much early paced types in this race and this stiff course might suit MISTY GREY 12/1 (EW) better than the rest of the field, this one races as though further would suit it better and this one could be the one to lead so I'm hoping it can set the pace and then stay on too strongly for the rest to catch it and at the price has to an each way punt. 

LINGFIELD 3.50 

A race with plenty of early pace and they could go off too fast and open the door for something coming from off the pace to pick them up in the closing stages. I can see some possible weaknesses in some of those fancied in the betting, Daamberdiplomat 11/4 would need to improve time wise to win this race but has only run in Ireland so could be anything but I'm not convinced its the best horse in the race. Prince Of Zenda 4/1 might be outclassed in this class 3 race, How Impressive 6/1 also may be outclassed at this level and they are the first three in the betting. I will take a punt on EXALTED ANGEL 14/1 (EW) who has been running in better class races without winning and is in this race rated 2lbs below what its won off before so has been given every chance and the trainer has a 23% strike rate at this course so I will be backing it each way.

6:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (26th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15 

EXALTED ANGEL only had one run over this course and distance in 2023 while its best rating from 2022 would make it my top rated but it hasn't been in the best of form this year while in its favour is the fact that's its dropped in class. INTERVENTION this frontrunning type has recorded a rating this year but it was 13lb below its best 2023 rating but could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead and has been in good form of late. WAY TO DUBAI races as though a longer distance would suit it better so might get outpaced here and timewise it needs to improve a good few spots. ROUSING ENCORE is another frontrunning type but its best rating is a few spots below some of the other entrants in this race. STREAMLINE hasn't won a race since 2021 and hasn't been in great form in its recent races and I expect it will the outsider of the race. JUST A SPARK is well weighted and is capable of producing a competitive rating but might find this class of horse too much to handle. 

SUMMARY:

Shame about the low turnout for this class 3 race but at the least the early pace should be good and result in a true run race, the 3 runners that won or finished 2nd last time out could well win this race but I'm prepared to take a punt with EXALTED ANGEL who hasn't been in the best of form but I'm hoping this drop in class is enough for it to be able to repeat its best rating which would be enough to win this race a shade cosily. PS I used the word punt because on the early tissue prices it was given as a 10/1 shot, yesterday afternoon it was down to 11/2 which I thought was still overpriced but got up this morning and its 7/2 so it ain't much of a punt now.

Exalted Angel 7/2 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

1:31 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (12th March)

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.31 

Four races to write about so just the essentials for each race, the betting will be the final decider but am hoping to lay Asadjumeirah 9/1 who might be outclassed at this class 2 level and Above 13/2 who has a good rating from 2020 but hasn't shown as much time wise since then and might need this run for fitness, it is quite a competitive handicap, Zarzyni could go well here but I will be backing the top weight EXALTED ANGEL 9/2 who has an the last twice in Listed races and is therefore dropped in class to run in this race and the trainer does well at this course and the jockey has a decent record when riding for the stable. 

Exalted Angel 13/2 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Asadjumeirah +1pt, Above +1pt 

Total +1pt

LINGFIELD 2.56 

I can see a couple, Eye Of The Water 4/1 and Glamorous Force 10/3 who I would look to lay the former because it might be the wrong going and the latter because it might be too far here where I think there will be a fast early pace to the race as my top 2 are both front running types and I am hoping that CREEK HARBOUR 7/1 who is drawn in stall 2 can lead and gain control of the rails and lead all the way for the win. 

Creek Harbour 15/2 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Eye Of The Water +1pt, Glamorous Force +1pt 

Total +1pt

KEMPTON 5.00 

I've tried very hard to make something from this race, maybe the bet should be The Defiant who won last time out and has been found a good chance to follow up here but the trainer is 0-14 at this course which is off-putting but the jockey is 2-9 for the stable, so conflicting positives and negatives, also if the price is as short as forecast, thirteen to eight, then it represents no value. 

KEMPTON 5.30 

A race where I will look to lay Airshow 11/2 who may need further to show its best form and this race might not be run to suit it with just the one known front running type in the shape of LUCKY AVA 7/2 who won last time out over this distance and on this surface but at Chelmsford and if capable of reproducing that rating at this course its been found a good opportunity to follow up in this race, the trainer has a 24% win ratio at this course and the jockey has an 18% win ratio for the stable so hopefully it all points to the horse winning again.

Lucky Ava 7/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Airshow +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day +2pts

1:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (26th February)

LINGFIELD 1.30 

EXALTED ANGEL has won in this class of race before and using a 2021 speed figure it recorded at Wolverhampton last year it comes out as my top rated. 

LORD RIDDIFORD looks the one most likely to set the pace to this race but would need to improve time wise to hold on for the win and might be worth laying. 

MONDAMMEJ hasn't any distance form on this surface while its best from Wolverhampton would make it my 3rd top rated.

ONE NIGHT STAND races as though a longer distance would suit it better and I doubt it can pick up the leader but will probably be the outsider in this race. 

STRONG POWER has been running well lately winning its last 3 races and comes out 2nd top on my figures so could run well again here.

TONE THE BARONE is one that can usually be relied upon to do its best and is another that could run well in this race. 

SUMMARY: Only 6 runners with Lord Riddiford 3/1 the one that looks most likely to lead in this race but I might look to lay it as it needs to improve time wise to win this race, all of the runners apart from one have been running in class 2 handicaps and probably deserve the chance to compete at this level but I will stick with the proven and back the only one that's proven in this class so my money will be riding on EXALTED ANGEL 3/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and does have good trainer/jockey stats. 

Exalted Angel 3/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Lord Riddiford +1pt

Total 0pts

LINGFIELD 3.10 

Another 6 runner race in class 2 this time and to be honest I'm not sure what to make of this race, I've got Soldiers Minute as my 4th top rated on a 2022 speed figure, Fizzy Feet a possible pacesetter as my 3rd top rated again using a 2022 rating, Crimson Sand comes out in 2nd top spot using a 2021 speed figure with Marks Bear in top spot again using a 2021 rating but it is very close between them and the other pair, If You Dare another possible front runner and Asadjumerah I have marked down as possible hidden dangers so I'm going to leave this race alone. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

To be honest this isn't a good race for a class 4 affair but at least Night Narcissus 6/1 will make sure there's a decent early pace but being my 4th top rated I doubt it can hold on for the win but could make the frame so maybe lay the win part is the way to go I think I can add Annie Rose 7/1 to my lay list as I think its better on the Polytrack surface, of the others Camerata, Pacifico and Sky Storm are lightly raced sorts and could be capable of improvement but I'm hoping its not in this race, ARAMIS GREY 11/2 is my 2nd top rated and its versatile with its racing tactics and that does include leading and as its drawn in stall 1 I think it will be ridden from the front and if it does get to the front it could be very hard to catch if it reproduces its best and I only have one horse INEVITABLE OUTCOME higher so I will be backing them both to cover the angles. 

Aramis Grey 11/2 4th -1pt 

Inevitable Outcome 15/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Night Narcissus -3.33pts, Annie Rose +1pt 

Total -4.33pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 

Back down to class 6 here with 3 known front running types in the race but none of them are in my top 4 rated so it looks something coming from off the pace will win this race, I have a couple that I could look to lay but the betting will as usual make the final decision, Porfin 9/2 may find this distance stretches its stamina with a fast early pace and with 3 front running types it should be fast run so one to lay along with Miss Bella Brand 8/1 who might not really like this Tapeta surface, Al Asef will be running on and comes out 4th best on my figures using Wolverhampton or Newcastle ratings and 2nd best when using a recent Southwell speed figure so could make the frame, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses firstly Red Alert 6/1 who could do enough to make the frame if it runs to its best but isn't what I consider an each way price, the other joint 2nd top rated is STEELRIVER 14/1 (EW) who is also my top rated on Southwell ratings, its usually held up for a late run and the booked jockey, Jamie Spencer is a master riding from off the pace and coming with a late rattle so will be carrying some of my money in an each way wager, the rest will be riding on DEPUTISE 3/1 who ran a good race in a fast time when finishing 2nd this year and has been found a chance to get back to winning ways.

Deputise 7/2 6th -1pt 

Steelriver 18/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bets: Porfin +1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -6.33pts