3:35 Kempton Racing Tips (29th November)

KEMPTON 3.35 

This is a poor race where there isn't a lot to say about a lot of the runners and only five of the twelve runners have a recorded speed figure on my ratings and I think the other seven entrants will all be double figure price (I've got this piece wrong as I'm Mable has been made the 10/3 favourite who won last time out on grass but that win was over 5 furlongs and I am doubtful if it really wants the sixth furlong but in this race with no known front runners this race could possibly be run to suit it but if there is a fast early pace it may get found out but I couldn't say to back or lay it but it could possibly ruin my bets) and the winner might come from those with a speed figure, Kodi Gold is my 3rd top rated but that is using a time recorded on Tapeta at Newcastle and its sole run on this surface at Chelmsford didn't show it in a good light so maybe this surface doesn't suit it, Starter For Ten is 5th top rated on a time recorded over this c/d this year but its not won a race on an artificial surface from 14 attempts which is off putting but it has made the frame 4 of those races, Daring Guest is 4th top using a time from Lingfield recorded this year but its sole attempt over this c/d didn't register on my graphs, TOMSHALFBROTHER 10/1 (EW) sits in 2nd top spot using a time recorded at Chelmsford in 2020 and hasn't any surface distance form to its name for this year and the jockey is 1-3 on the stables older horses so it might be a positive booking, my top rated is IESHA 14/1 (EW) this time using a speed figure it recorded at Chelmsford this year and would probably have been my sole selection if it wasn't for the stables 0-5 for the last 2 weeks and it doesn't do particularly well at this course and is 0-11 with its 3yo’s at this course, my stakes won't be at full strength because there isn't any known front running types in the race but I am hoping they will both be each way prices then I will go with two small each way punts. 

Tomshalfbrother 10/1 2nd +1pt

Iesha 14/1 6th -2pts 

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00 

A poor turnout of just four runners for this class 3 race over the minimum distance, there's no known front runners amongst them but i have a feeling that the early pace might be set by Zapper Cass who is the stablemate of the 3yo NIGHT ON EARTH 8/11 who looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to follow up from its win last time out and a reproduction of that speed figure would see it winning this race a little cosily but I expect it will be the hot hot favourite to win this race.

Night On Earth 1st +0.72pts 

Total +0.72pts

Total on the day -0.28pts

5:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (26th May)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50 

INAAM 16/1 an 8yo who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, this trip might be a bit too short for it and I don't think this surface really suits it as its ran twice over this c/d and didn't run well on either occasion and one i would look to lay and the jockeys 0-4 for the stable doesn't inspire confidence.

BREAKING RECORDS 14/1 this 6yo looks as though a longer trip would suit it better and hasn't shown much in its latest runs, it would need to improve on its best turf distance time to win here and another one that i will possibly lay if of value plus the jockeys 3-144 win ratio is off-putting. 

SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 11/2 this 4yo led and won last time out at Chelmsford but the time would only make it my 5th top rated on overall figures but at least we know its in good heart, its best c/d time would see it even lower down on my figures plus the trainers record here is 1-42. 

DANA FOREVER 12/1 a 4yo who is versatile with its racing tactics and my 2nd top rated on recent (2020/21) c/d times but drops to 4th best on overall figures and it can struggle to stay this far with a fast early pace and i doubt it will be allowed to set a slightly slower pace in this race, while the 7lb claiming apprentice is 0-5 on the AW tracks for the trainer. 

GOOD EARTH 9/4 this 4yo is versatile with its racing tactics and could lead if nothing else wants to but I'm not 100% sure this surface suits it and also may be better when dropped back in distance but could be a danger if allowed an easy lead but I doubt that will happen here and at the price has to be of value to lay the win part. 

AL ASEF 4/1 this 6yo’s best c/d time would see it outside my top 3 ratings while its best time overall recorded at Chelmsford isn't good enough to make the top 3 again and hasn't won since its 2yo days back in 2017 so another i will look to lay. 

BYTHEBAY 9/1 a 4yo who is a maiden after 5 runs and hasn't run before over this distance and i think it might get outpaced in the early stages over this trip if there's a good early pace so may do better when tried again over a longer distance but the trainer has a 33% win ratio and the jockey is 31% so it looks like they are at least expecting a big run and if there is a fast early pace and the leaders fade it could play into this one’s hands. 

TOMSHALFBROTHER 12/1 a 5yo who comes out in top spot on my figures both for recent and overall times and it likes a decent target to aim at so with a clear run this race could well be run to suit it, the apprentice jockey has a 17% win ratio on the stables older horses which I'm hoping is a positive. 

GLORIOUS CHARMER 16/1 this 5 yo comes out 3rd top on recent figures but drops to 5th on overall figures and is usually held up in the rear or middle of the field and then runs on at the finish but hasn't won a race on the AW tracks from 12 attempts. 

SUMMARY: With Sir Rodneyredblood, Dana Forever and Good Earth all having led before this should be a true run affair of these 3 maybe Dana Forever will do best unless they push each other into going off too fast and then they all fade in the closing stages of the race which could play into the hands of TOMSHALFBROTHER 12/1 who is my top rated and likes a target to aim at in the home straight and it could also suit BYTHEBAY 9/1 who also stays on at this trip and would maybe be better off over a longer trip but this race might be run fast enough to suit it and this one has good trainer/jockey stats and I will be backing them both in this race.

Tomshalfbrother 12/1 2nd -1pt 

Bythebay 9/1 5th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

2:15 Catterick Racing Tips & Lay Bets (4th August)

CATTERICK 2.15

I think its a shame there's only 7 runners but hey ho there's nothing I can do about it, I would look to lay (Fox Hill + Mutabaahy + Jill Rose) Red Pike comes out 3rd top on it best 2019 time, Longroom likes to track the leaders and comes out 2nd top overall but I am hoping DAPPER MAN 14/1 can lead in this race and if getting to the front and reproducing its best Newmarket time from 2019 would have a few spots in hand and win cosily, I would love to put this up as an each-way bet but cannot with only 2 places up for grabs. 

Dapper Man 14/1 5th (-2pts)

Lay bets: Fox Hill +1pt, Mutabaahy +1pt, Jill Rose 0pt

BEVERLEY 2.30 

This is a race I would normally leave well alone, its a very poor class 6 affair with a lot of either 3yo’s or lightly races horses but the topweight QAARAAT 8/1 has become well handicapped recently and in this race, it's carrying the topweight against inferior horses and looks to have been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways and the price is a little more than I was expecting. 

Qaaraat 8/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CATTERICK 3.15 

A race where there's quite a few lightly raced sorts so my stakes won't be at full tilt maybe it's not really a race to be betting in and it's only after looking at the tissue prices have I decided to write up this race, Carlovian and Indian Pursuit should make sure there's a good early pace and either could do enough to make the frame, B Fifty Two could go well but doesn't like really fast going, the one to catch my eye is, of course, top-rated who is well weighted on its best tie from Doncaster last year but this one does want genuine good to firm ground to show its best so if the going is ideal I will back LUCKY BEGGAR 7/1. 

Lucky Beggar 11/1 8th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

LINGFIELD 6.15

I love my AW racing but this is a dire affair, of the 11 runners I could probably lay 7 of them and maybe the 3yo bottom-weight maybe should be added to the list, Bernies Boy is my 3rd top-rated but that's using a 2018 time and looks to be on a downward spiral but could get placed here as the race is that bad, Cappananty Con is 2nd top-rated on 2020 times and could go well but I will be backing TOMSHALFBROTHER 10/3 who is the top rate on this year's speed figures and the trainer has a 27% win ratio with their older horses on this course.

Tomshalfbrother 10/3 6th (-1pt)

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -3pts