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Showing posts with label Under Curfew. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Under Curfew. Show all posts

Wednesday, 24 May 2023

3:20 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (25th May)

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.20

A class 6 sprint with 13 runners and 3 natural front running types amongst them, I will look to lay Squeezebox and Show Compassion, if they are value to do so, Another Angel has been in good form recently and is a front running type and my 4th top rated so could go well, Della Mare is another front running type and my joint 2nd top rated alongside Eldeyaar who likes to track the leaders before staying on resolutely at the finish, my money will be on PORFIN (EW) who is a hold up type and likes to have a fast pace to aim at so this race should suit it well. 

Each Way Bet PORFIN 11/1 Unp -2pts
Lay SQUEEZEBOX 5/1 +1pt 

Total 0pts

HAYDOCK 4.00

A class 4 dash where half the field have been known to lead before and looking at the make-up of this race it could be won from the front, Street Life is capable of recording a good time but hasn't won before at this level, Dandy Dinmont might be better over a longer distance so these 2 might be lays if of value. Birkenhead is my 4th top rated and is a hold up type, Catch Cunningham comes out as 3rd top and likes to track the leaders, my money will be riding on SO SMART who should prove hard to catch if it gets its head in front. 

Bet SO SMART 4/1 6th -1pt
Lay DANDY DINMONT 6/1 + STREET LIFE 8/1 +1pt 

Total 0pts

CHELMSFORD 6.22 

A 7 runner class 5 dash where I will be looking to lay Blue Flame who might be better when racing over a longer distance, Dark Side Prince is the one I expect will set the pace to the race and being my 4th top rated it could go well, Saaheq and Street Parade are my joint 2nd top rated and both like to track the leaders, my money will be riding on SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD who likes a fast pace to aim at and this race could be run to suit it with 2 or 3 that like to track the pacesetters so making sure its a fast early gallop.

Bet SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 13/2 7th -1pt 
Lay BLUE FLAME 4/1 +1pt 

Total 0pts

CHELMSFORD 8.22 

A class 6 sprint with just 7 runners so there cant be any each way bets, where Jungle Run my 3rd top rated could set the pace, Josies Kid might prefer a shorter distance while Laertes might prefer further and I will look to lay both of them if of value to do so, Show Me A Sunset can struggle to stay the distance if there's a really fast early pace but in this race it comes out 2nd top on my figures so could go well but my money will be riding on UNDER CURFEW who usually races in midfield before staying on the stronger at the finish. 

Bet UNDER CURFEW 11/1 3rd -1pt 
Lay JOSIES KID 7/1 + LAERTES 7/1 +2pts

Total +1pt 

Total on the day +1pt

Tuesday, 10 August 2021

1:00 Yarmouth Racing Tips (11th August)

YARMOUTH 1.00 

TROUSER THE CASH 5/2 has only slow times on turf over this distance and is 0-4 on turf it might be a bit too short for it on good to firm ground but it does have a fast time from on the AW at Chelmsford and usually races in midfield, the trainer is 0-12 in the last 2 weeks which doesn't inspire confidence so maybe worth laying at the price.

BREEZYANDBRIGHT 7/4 won quite nicely last time out but that was in a relatively slow run race and will need to improve to pick up the front runners in this race, it does have good trainer/jockey stats but this horse was the stables only winner in the past fortnight and is poor value in my opinion and might be worth laying as you lose very little if it does win. 

ARZAAK 4/1 one of two possible pacesetters in this race and it has the best time for just 2021 but that is relatively slow compared to overall times from last year and even 2019, its best time from last year makes it my top rated but the trainer is 1-65 at this course and hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks. 

TILSWORTH ROSE 10/1 the 2nd of the known front running types in this race, the trainer is 0-15 in the past fortnight and is 1-92 at this course, it hasn't run on good to firm ground so far this year but its best from 2020 would make it competitive.

SWELL SONG 10/1 hasn't shown much time wise so far this year while its best times from 2020 and 2019 would put it in the mix, it has average trainer/jockey stats and he is 2-22 in the last two weeks. 

KELINDA DICE 12/1 hasn't any recent form over this trip on good to firm ground and I am of the opinion it might do better when raced over a longer distance, not sure about the jockey booking, 0-1 while the trainer has a poorish 7% win ratio at this course. 

SWEET NOTHING 14/1 is a 3yo who is making its handicap debut in this race but it would need to improve dramatically on what its shown so far to win this race. 

CONCLUSION: I am not filled with confidence in my selection for this race because of the trainers poor record, see above, but ARZAAK 4/1 is top rated on both this years and last years figures and is one of only 2 front running types in the race so if getting to the front it could be hard to catch. 

Arzaak 10/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Breezyandbright +1pt

Total 0pts 

SALISBURY 3.05 

ADDITIONAL 5/1 this ones trainer has been in good form lately with a 3-8 record and the jockey booking also looks as though it could be a positive, a 19% win ratio, but time wise it needs to improve and I think its better when raced over further but will be staying on at the finish.

DELEGATE THIS LORD 11/4 this one hasn't any course and distance form to its name since 2019 where its best time would make it my top rated but only by 1lb and another that should be staying on at the finish, the jockey booking, 1-13 does put me off a little.

NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND 6/1 the trainer is in decent form with a 3-15 in the last 2 weeks and has a 2-8 record at this course but is 0-2 with their older horses and the jockey is 0-3 again on the stables older horses and time wise is my 4th top rated but there is only 4lbs between 4th and 1st top rated. 

NEFARIOUS 8/1 has poor trainer, 0-5 and jockey, 0-6, with the stables older horses, it hasn't got any recent distance form since 2018 mainly due to it looking like it needs a longer distance to show its true worth so I will look to lay it. 

UNDER CURFEW 15/8 this ones jockey has a decent 19% win ratio with the stables older horses at this course and the trainer is 5-63 in the last 2 weeks plus its best time was recorded this year at Leicester so this course should suit it, it is the only known front runner in the field plus its only 1lb off top spot.

SENECA CHIEF 15/2 the trainers recent form, 3-9, is very good and is my 3rd top rated just 1lb below my 2nd top rated so it could be close nearing the finish, the trainer is 0-2 at this course though and the jockey 0-3 on the stables older horses. 

CONCLUSION: I will look to lay Nefarious 8/1 who might want further than this distance to shine but should be trying to stay on at the finish, I am hoping that UNDER CURFEW 15/8 who is my top rated on just 2021 times can lead from start to finish and hopefully the jockey booking shows the stable expect it to run well here.

Under Curfew 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Nefarious +1pt

Total on the day 0pts

Underlined - Lay 
Bold - Bet