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Thursday, 19 December 2019

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (19th December)


SOUTHWELL 1.30 

I am still debating whether or not to bother with this race as I've only got one horse with a time fast enough to register on my graphs so I think the betting will decide for me if the three-year-old CHAMPAGNE MONDAYS 17/2 can reproduce its best figure it would be worth backing so I'm hoping for about 8/1 to be of value for me to bet. 

Champagne Mondays 12/1 Unp

SOUTHWELL 4.30 

Only 8 runners and four of them look to have very little chance of winning this race, Napping could be a bit of a hidden danger having won on g/s ground before but it hasn't won in 15 previous 15 races but none over this c/d, GLOBAL MELODY 11/2 is my top rated but this will be the apprentices first ride for the stable and its losing run of 12 are not ideal so have planted a seed of doubt in my mind while only Liamba 10/1 looks capable of pushing it but its a poor price in my opinion 

Global Melody 11/2 2nd  

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

There's only a couple that looks out of their depth in this race and maybe four that I'm not sure what to expect of, Storm Over is my 3rd top-rated but its losing run of 10 does put me off somewhat while its record on AW tracks is quite good with 2 wins and 2 places from just 5 runs, the 3yo With Caution comes out 2nd top and it likes to track the leaders this one AW record of 3 wins and 3 places from 7 runs is quite impressive but my money will be riding on another 3yo in the shape of WHISPER ALOUD 15/2 who also has a decent record on AW tracks, the impressive 21% win rate of the trainer at this course and the jockeys 32% win rate of the jockey for this stable and if things go as I hope then it will be able to lead all the way. 

Whisper Aloud 15/2 9th 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 

To be honest, this is one of the most competitive class 4 handicaps I have seen in quite a long time and I haven't got a major negative against any of them, with 4 frontrunning types in the race it should be a fast and furious affair, Zapper Class is my 4th top-rated and will be staying on at the business end of the race, I've got joint 2nd top-rated horses in Canford Bay who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and Tan who’s the best time came from 2018, my stake won't be at full strength but I will b backing TATHMEEN 9/2 who is another that will be staying on resolutely at the finish and I'm hoping the booked jockeys 1-3 win rate for this stable is a positive move and they are expecting a big run here. 

Tathmeen 9/2 3rd 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

This looks decent for a class 6 race with just one known frontrunner who will probably set the pace from a stall 3 draw, Mansfield is 4th top-rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish and could run into a place, Brockey Rise comes out 3rd best but its losing streak of 12 races isn't confidence-inspiring, Billyoakes is a hold-up type of horse and comes out 2nd top on my figures but I will be putting my faith in SANTAFIORA 6/1 who likes to track the leaders so from stall 2 could get a good tow into the race and the jockey has an overall win ratio of 15% for this stable but it rises to 20% when riding the stables older horses.

Santafiora 6/1 8th

Related post: Remember When Eric Slapped the Arse of Bookies with this Outrageous Tip?