4:10 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (8th October)

SOUTHWELL 4.10 

There's a maximum field of 14 runners 6 of them having been known to lead before and most of my top rated horses are front running sorts, the 2 that might do best of those coming from off the pace are Undercover Brother and Queen Of Kalahari, Sommer Katze and Red Stripes are 2 front runners that have times that would put them in the mix but I will be taking a bit of a punt on CROSSE FIRE 28/1 (EW) who admittedly hasn't shown much so far this year but has a time from 2019 that makes it my top rated, its draw in stall 2 is nearly perfect and I hope it gets away smartly and gains control of the rails and then prove hard to catch, I'm also hoping the tissue prices are right as its forecast to be a twenty to one shot so worth an each way gamble. 

Crosse Fire 28/1 2nd (+6pts) 

Total: +6pts

SOUTHWELL 5.40

This is the 2nd division of this race and the 1st division hasn't much data to work with so looks best left alone, I will look to lay (Onebaba + Northern Charm) as I'm not sure they will like this surface, I will be concentrating on the pair at the top of the handicap, Global Melody is 2nd top rated using just 2020 c/d times but has a time from 2019 that would make it top rated overall, Puchita is top rated on just this years times which is always a bonus and I will go with an each way bet on GLOBAL MELODY 10/1 (EW) and a win bet on PUCHITA 10/3 to cover both angles. 

Global Melody 10/1 1st (+12pts) Betfair SP (9.7) 

Puchita 10/3 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Onebab +1pt, Northern Charm +1pt

Total: +13pts

CHELMSFORD 7.00

This is a cracking looking class 3 dash and half the field of 12 have been known to lead before so it will be fast and furious, I cannot find anything of value to lay but that's maybe to be expected when dealing with better class animals, of the front runners maybe Mercenary Rose and Benny And The Jets will do best and are my 3rd and 4th top rated horses on overall figures, Daschas comes out 2nd top but I did have to go back to 2018 to find that time so I leave this one alone until it shows signs of a revival, I'm hoping the front runners really do go mad at the off and then tire nearing the finish which could play into the hands of JACK THE TRUTH 9/2 who is a hold up type and has been found a good chance of completing its hattrick.

Jack The Truth 5/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day:  +18pts

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th February)

SOUTHWELL 2.00 

The bottom four in the handicap hasn’t shown anything worthwhile and would normally be lays but two of them are 3yo which can improve without warning and this race will not take much winning, Eesha Says is my 3rd top-rated and the most likely pacesetter in the race so could go well if allowed an easy lead, Amazing Amaya is in 2nd top spot but I will have a small bet on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 2/1 hoping it can break its AW duck at the 4th attempt after finishing 2nd twice in 2 of its 3 previous goes but I have to say I hate backing favourites mainly because they represent poor value.

Sambucca Spirit 15/2 6th 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.40

Only 6 runners where I can lay (Top Boy + Grayboy) both Six Strings and Sandridge Lad need to improve timewise to win this race but I cannot split GLOBAL MELODY 6/1 and AL SUIT ELLE 5/1 as there is only 2lbs between them on my figures and there's nothing in the trainer/jockey stats to point me to one or the other so I will be backing them both. 

Global Melody 14/1 3rd 
Al Suit Elle 5/1 5th 

Lay bets: Top Boy (+1pt) Grayboy (+1pt) 

Total 0

CHELMSFORD 6.15

This looks and is a competitive affair where I can only find (Tone The Bartone) to lay and I will be dutching 3 of the 8 runners, ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 5/2 is the top-rated using just 2019/20 c/d times, SOMETHING LUCKY 5/1 is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to 2nd top overall, *EQUALLY FAST 7/2 hasn't any form at this course but its best time from Lingfield this year would make it top-rated overall, my stakes won't be at full strength in such a tricky race and the prices don't represent much value but I do my work two days in advance so I don't know the prices and let it influence my analysis. 

Roundabout Magic 6/1 6th 
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd 

Lay bets: Tone The Bartone (- 2pts)

*NR 

Total -4pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

There is nothing in this race I can put up as a lay although I am not sure what to expect from the topweight Irene May who hasn't run at this course before but could possibly find this surface plenty fast enough compared to its best speed figure from Wolverhampton, nearly every other horse in the race has some chance of making the frame, Kath's Lustre is my 2nd top-rated taking into account the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, Alicia Darcy is my original 2nd top-rated on a Lingfield time with only one poor run at this c/d to its name, my money will be riding on my top-rated FANTASTIC FLYER 9/1 who is moved even further clear with its apprentice jockey taking 5lbs off its back and has a good win ratio for this stable. 

Fantastic Flyer 9/1 1st 

Total +9pts

CHELMSFORD 7.45 

Div 1 Not too bad for a class 6 affair of the 12 runners I will look to lay (Black Isle Boy + Krazy Paving + *Caso Do Lago + Compton Abbey) Bahamian Heights would be on my list of potential winners on its best time from 2017 which would make it 2nd top-rated but has been well out of form lately, the topweight Broughton Excels has good trainer/jockey stats and is my 4th top-rated so could go well here but no value at 7/4, Spennys Lass is my 3rd top-rated but is on a losing run of 25 which isn't in its favour, I will be having a bet in this race but my stakes will be kept on the low side but I am taking a punt in hoping that DREAMBOAT ANNIE 16/1 attempts to make all the running as it has done before and at the price I have to have a bet on it. 

Dreamboat Annie 20/1 7th 

Lay bets: Krazy Paving (-7pts) Black Isle Boy (+1pt) Compton Abbey (+1pt) 

*NR 

Total -6pts 

CHELMSFORD 8.15  

Div 2 In this 2nd division, I will look to lay (Under Curfew + Jorvik Prince + Ghost Buy + Indian Affair) Englishman who won its last race is my 3rd top-rated and itis on a c/d time from 2019, sitting in 2nd top spot I have got Kyllukey but this ones losing streak has just reached double figures but it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without warning the same can be said about the one I will back in the race, INVISIBLE STORM 6/1 is on a losing run of 15 but its 4th place finish on its last run I am hoping is a sign that its ready to get back to winning ways. 

Invisible Storm 8/1 Unp (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Under Curfew (+1pt) Jorvik Prince (+1pt) Ghost Buy (+1pt) Indian Affair (+1pt)

Total +3pts

Total on Day +1pt 

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (19th December)

SOUTHWELL 1.30 

I am still debating whether or not to bother with this race as I've only got one horse with a time fast enough to register on my graphs so I think the betting will decide for me if the three-year-old CHAMPAGNE MONDAYS 17/2 can reproduce its best figure it would be worth backing so I'm hoping for about 8/1 to be of value for me to bet. 

Champagne Mondays 12/1 Unp

SOUTHWELL 4.30 

Only 8 runners and four of them look to have very little chance of winning this race, Napping could be a bit of a hidden danger having won on g/s ground before but it hasn't won in 15 previous 15 races but none over this c/d, GLOBAL MELODY 11/2 is my top rated but this will be the apprentices first ride for the stable and its losing run of 12 are not ideal so have planted a seed of doubt in my mind while only Liamba 10/1 looks capable of pushing it but its a poor price in my opinion 

Global Melody 11/2 2nd  

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

There's only a couple that looks out of their depth in this race and maybe four that I'm not sure what to expect of, Storm Over is my 3rd top-rated but its losing run of 10 does put me off somewhat while its record on AW tracks is quite good with 2 wins and 2 places from just 5 runs, the 3yo With Caution comes out 2nd top and it likes to track the leaders this one AW record of 3 wins and 3 places from 7 runs is quite impressive but my money will be riding on another 3yo in the shape of WHISPER ALOUD 15/2 who also has a decent record on AW tracks, the impressive 21% win rate of the trainer at this course and the jockeys 32% win rate of the jockey for this stable and if things go as I hope then it will be able to lead all the way. 

Whisper Aloud 15/2 9th 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 

To be honest, this is one of the most competitive class 4 handicaps I have seen in quite a long time and I haven't got a major negative against any of them, with 4 frontrunning types in the race it should be a fast and furious affair, Zapper Class is my 4th top-rated and will be staying on at the business end of the race, I've got joint 2nd top-rated horses in Canford Bay who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and Tan who’s the best time came from 2018, my stake won't be at full strength but I will b backing TATHMEEN 9/2 who is another that will be staying on resolutely at the finish and I'm hoping the booked jockeys 1-3 win rate for this stable is a positive move and they are expecting a big run here. 

Tathmeen 9/2 3rd 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

This looks decent for a class 6 race with just one known frontrunner who will probably set the pace from a stall 3 draw, Mansfield is 4th top-rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish and could run into a place, Brockey Rise comes out 3rd best but its losing streak of 12 races isn't confidence-inspiring, Billyoakes is a hold-up type of horse and comes out 2nd top on my figures but I will be putting my faith in SANTAFIORA 6/1 who likes to track the leaders so from stall 2 could get a good tow into the race and the jockey has an overall win ratio of 15% for this stable but it rises to 20% when riding the stables older horses.

Santafiora 6/1 8th

Related post: Remember When Eric Slapped the Arse of Bookies with this Outrageous Tip?