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Friday, 31 July 2020

1:50 Goodwood Racing Tips & Lay Bets (1st August)

GOODWOOD 1.50 

This is the consolation race for the Stewards Cup but that race has got 28 runners so the draw could sway the results so I will leave the main race alone. I have found a few to lay here (Saluti + Music Society + Dark Shot + Dream Today) I expect most will be big priced lays but if they lose the price is irrelevant, Treacherous, The Lamplighter and Highly Sprung could all run well in this race but I will be backing REWAAYAT 3/1 who I expect will be the favourite but as long it's 3/1 or bigger it might be worth backing if priced under that I would leave it alone. 

Rewaayat 3/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Saluti +1pt, Music Society +1pt, Dark Shot +1pt, Dream Today +1pt

Total: +3pts 

HAMILTON 5.30 

I am taking a bit of a gamble and hoping the going will be good or better here so please check before betting, this is a competitive race for its class and i will only lay (Jordan Electrics 15/2) who won for me last time out but this 2 step rise in class will most likely find it out and if priced 10/1 or under will be worth taking on, theres at least 4 in this race that have been known to lead before so those who struggle to stay 6 furlongs will not have the race run to suit their needs, Galloway Hills is my 2nd top rated overall using a 2019 time from Doncaster but the trainers 0-13 at this course and all its wins have come on relatively faltcourses so the undulations of this course most likely wont suit it, Medicine Jack has the fastest time from just 2020 but that speed figure is only good enough for 4th overall but we know its in form so it could go well but my pennies will be riding on the topweighted DANZAN 6/1 who is a frontrunning type and top rated overall plus the trainer has a decent 20% win ratio at this course and is dropped in class from its previous 3 runs this year. 

*NR 

Danzan 11/1 2nd (-1pt)

Toal: -1pt 

HAMILTON 6.40 

Only 6 runners in this class 3 conditions race, I am not quite sure what to expect from Keep Busy and Istanbul, the two 3yo in the race but the betting seems to think, like myself, that they will need to improve some to win here, the other four all appear to be on downward spirals in their careers so it's maybe not a race to be getting too involved in betting wise but connections appear to have found a very good opportunity for EL ASTRONAUTE 13/8 to get back to winning ways but looking at the tissue prices it's predicted to be the favourite, I am not usually a fan of backing favourites but with a prize fund of nearly 10k to the winner I expect they will all be on the ball. 

El Astronaute 5/2 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CHEPSTOW 7.30 

With four 3yo in the race who could prove troublesome, Gold Zabeel is predicted to be one of the favourites and with this being its handicap debut they could have been keeping something in hand, its 3 runs have all been over 7 furlongs where its faded inside the final furlong so this drop to 6 furlongs might seem a good move but they might go too fast for it and it could get outpaced but im not 100% sure of that, the other predicted favourite is Intrepid Italian who has won twice over thsi distance at Lingfield on the AW surface but both times were well poor so would need to improve on the clock to win this race but never say never, i will look to lay (Iconic Knight 13/2 ) who looks a much better horse over shorter distances, my money will be riding on a horse that likes g/f going and if the going is suitable then i think they have found an ideal opportunity for HANDYTALK 16/1 (EW) to get back to winning ways and the trainer does well at this course, a 20% strike rate, with its older horses and as usual when its a big price i would go with an each way wager.

Handytalk 16/1 4th (-2pts)

Lay bet: iconic 13/2 (-6.5pts)

Total: -8.5pts

Total on the day: -7.5pts 

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