2:00 Thirsk Racing Tips (6th May)

THIRSK 2.00 

A class 4 sprint with 16 runners but just 1 known front runner in the shape of Cooperation 10/1 coming out of stall 8 and if heads across to the rails those drawn higher could get squeezed out but i doubt it can lead all the way, As If By Chance 7/1 produces high ratings but in lower class races than this one. Run This Way hasn't been in good form lately but is capable on its day, Bay Breeze will be to the fore in the betting after winning last time out on soft ground and could run well again here and could follow up with another win, it's really a hard race to analyse and it looks competitive for a class 4 race but I am going to take a punt on one I think will be an outsider in this race and that is ABOLISH 12/1 (EW) who is often held up for a late run but here its drawn in stall 7 so it could get a good tow across towards the rails but the horse drawn just inside of it and therefore gain a good position from which to attack nearing the finish and I think/hope it will be an each way price. 

Abolish 25/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWMARKET 2.50 

I must be mad trying to analyse a 23 runner class 2 sprint where they could run as 1 group or split into 2 or possibly 3 groups and on this course when that happens its hard to predict which side will prove to have the faster going. One that could set the pace to the race is Equiano Springs 40/1 who is drawn in stall 17 and could be dangerous if the better ground favours those drawn high but the betting says its not really fancied, I doubt many will be a single figure price in this race but I am going to hope that those drawn low have just as much or even better chance of winning as I will be backing TANAMAWWY 7/1 who finished 2nd in a race 15 days ago so is in good form, it is also my top rated while the trainer has a 21% win ratio on this course with their older horses and the jockey has an overall strike-rate of 21% for the stable it moves up to 28% on the stables older horses. 

Tanamawwy 7/1 Unp -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWMARKET 4.00

Another big field but this time 17 for a Group 3 dash where 9 of the runners have been known to lead before, *Mountain Peak and Korker would be my 2 top rated horses using a class 2 sprint at Haydock last year both may need this run for fitness and I doubt they are up to winning at this level, I doubt there will be many at a single figure price so I doubt I can find a value lay for the race. Manaccan is a front running type drawn in stall 1 so if the low numbers have an advantage it could go well and has the legend Frankie Dettori riding it but this one might need this for fitness and has to prove itself at this level but has won in Listed class and a Group 3 win in Ireland on the All-Weather surface at Dundalk. My money will be riding on RAASEL 12/1 (EW) who looks capable of winning at this level but the trainers record of 1-29 at this course is a bit off-putting but the stable have switched back to James Doyle as their jockey and he has a 31% win ratio for the stable and at the price has to be given as an each way wager. 

*NR

Raasel 12/1 4th -2pts 

Total -2pts

DONCASTER 6.55 

A field of 9 for this class 3 sprint with a couple of known front running types one of them is Aberama Gold 5/1 who comes out 5th top on my figures but has poorish trainer/jockey stats so might be worth laying, Woven 14/1 hasn't won a race since 2020 which doesn't inspire confidence and it will most likely need this run for fitness so I will look to lay this one but not at that price, Treacherous 8/1 is capable of good ratings but is another that hasn't won since 2020 but it could run well here but well enough to win I'm not sure one way or the other, Fast And Furious 7/2 is another that looks likely to need this run for fitness, so there is 4 that I could lay for one reason or another but they all have decent speed ratings but I will be backing DANZAN 7/1 who is the other known front running type in the race and as this one had a run just under a month ago i hope that got it back to full fitness and it can lead all the way.

Danzan 15/2 4th -1pt

Lay bets: Woven -3.5pts, Aberama Gold +1pt 

Total -3.5pts

Total on the day -8.5pts

2:45 Hamilton Racing Tips (3rd June)

HAMILTON 2.45 

With 11 runners and a couple that have been known to lead before it should be a true run race, I will look to lay Illusionist 5/1 if a single figure price as it might be too far for it with a fast early pace, it is quite competitive at the top of my figures and Call Me Ginger, Embour and Manigordo could all go well in this race but I think the trainer Tim Easterby could hold the key to this race as both of his horses are two known to show the early pace, he jockey onEquiano Springs is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics but DANZAN 4/1 has a time from 2019 that would make it my top rated and the apprentice has a good 24% win ratio for the stable and I'm hoping it can get away quickly and lead from start to finish. 

Danzan 4/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

HAMILTON 4.30

If the going is good to firm then I will look to lay Ey Up Its Mick 4/1 who seems to prefer good or softer ground, Hart Stopper is 4th on my figures and should run its usual consistent race and could make the frame if others falter, Picks Pinta is 3rd best but hasn't shown much time wise since 2019, MR WAGYU 7/2 is my 2nd top rated but is the only known front runner in the race so could be more than dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I do have NUBOUGH 5/1 rated higher and this one usually runs on strongly at the finish and I will have to back them both to cover the angles. 

Mr Wagyu 7/2 1st +3.5pts (Betfair sp - )

Nubough 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total +2.5pts

HAMILTON 5.05 

With 6 runners its still not an easy race to analyse, Major Pusey may need this run for fitness and I think it might go from the front and then tire in the closing stages, Latin Five may need further to show its best and has only won once from 17 races, there is very little between Lady Celia, Buniann and Ventura Flame and any or all could go well but top rated is BALLYARE 5/1 but this one hasn't won in 9 previous attempts and only placed once plus it has poor, 0-5 Trainer and 0-7 jockey stats so maybe this race is best left alone and I will only bet if there is any value, 6/1 or above. 

Ballyare 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt

THIRSK 5.45 

A field of 13 with 3, Good Night Mr Tom, Quick Look and Kolossus, known front running types, I'm not sure the first 2 really like good to firm ground so maybe the latter will do best of the pacesetters and it does come out joint 4th top rated so could go well with an easy lead, Ice Age is top using a time from 2019 but isn't in my top 6 on recent 2020/21 times and has poor trainer/jockey stats, Highjacked has been in good form lately and I expect it could go well again here but it is a step up in class and I doubt it will be of value to take the risk, Mutanaaseq could be staying on at the finish but maybe not quick enough to get there in time to win the race, I will be having a small wager on DICK DATCHERY 10/1 who can track the leaders or be held up for a late run, it is a competitive race and my stakes will be kept low. 

Dick Datchery 10/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

Only 5 runners for this class 3 race, I'm not sure Araifjan is quite up to this class of race, Top Breeze hasn't really shown much time wise since 2018, top weight Ivetheengine also needs to improve time wise to win this race which leaves me with POWER OVER ME 11/4 who is one of 2 known front runners in the race and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and I expect it to be the favourite but if CORINTHIA KNIGHT 11/2 can reproduce its best time from Kempton at this course it could possibly catch the leader and looks the value call in the race but I will do them both to cover the angles.

Corinthia Knight 17/2 3rd -1pt 

Power Over Me 11/4 4th -1pt

Total on the day -2.5pts

1:50 Goodwood Racing Tips & Lay Bets (1st August)

GOODWOOD 1.50 

This is the consolation race for the Stewards Cup but that race has got 28 runners so the draw could sway the results so I will leave the main race alone. I have found a few to lay here (Saluti + Music Society + Dark Shot + Dream Today) I expect most will be big priced lays but if they lose the price is irrelevant, Treacherous, The Lamplighter and Highly Sprung could all run well in this race but I will be backing REWAAYAT 3/1 who I expect will be the favourite but as long it's 3/1 or bigger it might be worth backing if priced under that I would leave it alone. 

Rewaayat 3/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Saluti +1pt, Music Society +1pt, Dark Shot +1pt, Dream Today +1pt

Total: +3pts 

HAMILTON 5.30 

I am taking a bit of a gamble and hoping the going will be good or better here so please check before betting, this is a competitive race for its class and i will only lay (Jordan Electrics 15/2) who won for me last time out but this 2 step rise in class will most likely find it out and if priced 10/1 or under will be worth taking on, theres at least 4 in this race that have been known to lead before so those who struggle to stay 6 furlongs will not have the race run to suit their needs, Galloway Hills is my 2nd top rated overall using a 2019 time from Doncaster but the trainers 0-13 at this course and all its wins have come on relatively faltcourses so the undulations of this course most likely wont suit it, Medicine Jack has the fastest time from just 2020 but that speed figure is only good enough for 4th overall but we know its in form so it could go well but my pennies will be riding on the topweighted DANZAN 6/1 who is a frontrunning type and top rated overall plus the trainer has a decent 20% win ratio at this course and is dropped in class from its previous 3 runs this year. 

*NR 

Danzan 11/1 2nd (-1pt)

Toal: -1pt 

HAMILTON 6.40 

Only 6 runners in this class 3 conditions race, I am not quite sure what to expect from Keep Busy and Istanbul, the two 3yo in the race but the betting seems to think, like myself, that they will need to improve some to win here, the other four all appear to be on downward spirals in their careers so it's maybe not a race to be getting too involved in betting wise but connections appear to have found a very good opportunity for EL ASTRONAUTE 13/8 to get back to winning ways but looking at the tissue prices it's predicted to be the favourite, I am not usually a fan of backing favourites but with a prize fund of nearly 10k to the winner I expect they will all be on the ball. 

El Astronaute 5/2 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CHEPSTOW 7.30 

With four 3yo in the race who could prove troublesome, Gold Zabeel is predicted to be one of the favourites and with this being its handicap debut they could have been keeping something in hand, its 3 runs have all been over 7 furlongs where its faded inside the final furlong so this drop to 6 furlongs might seem a good move but they might go too fast for it and it could get outpaced but im not 100% sure of that, the other predicted favourite is Intrepid Italian who has won twice over thsi distance at Lingfield on the AW surface but both times were well poor so would need to improve on the clock to win this race but never say never, i will look to lay (Iconic Knight 13/2 ) who looks a much better horse over shorter distances, my money will be riding on a horse that likes g/f going and if the going is suitable then i think they have found an ideal opportunity for HANDYTALK 16/1 (EW) to get back to winning ways and the trainer does well at this course, a 20% strike rate, with its older horses and as usual when its a big price i would go with an each way wager.

Handytalk 16/1 4th (-2pts)

Lay bet: iconic 13/2 (-6.5pts)

Total: -8.5pts

Total on the day: -7.5pts 

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips and Lay Bets (11th July)

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

A strange race for a class 3 affair but there are 3 known frontrunners so it should be a true run race, I can only find 1 horse to lay (Athollblair Boy) who might find itself outclassed as it has never won in this class before, the main strange thing about this race is STAXTON 9/2 and DANZAN 22/1 both are capable of winning this race but they are both from the same stable and have completely different racing tactics, Danzan is known to lead so stall 3 should be fine while its stablemate Staxton is drawn in stall 4 so should get a good tow into the race, on times alone I would side with Staxton but although the usual stable jockey rides it here Danzan’s jockey has a 22% win ratio when riding the stables older horses, I cannot split them so will back them both to cover the angles but theres another horse I have to mention and that is Exchequer 18/1 who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and could stay on to make the frame but it does have to bounce back to form. 

Danzan 50/1 4th (-1pt)

Staxton 9/2 6th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Atholblair Boy +1pt

Total: -1pt

  

NEWCASTLE 7.30

There's 5 known front-running types in this race so it should be a fast and furious dash, as for lay bets I can only find (The Armed Man) who has been out of form lately and may need further to shine, of the frontrunners, You're Cool and Eeh Bah Gum could do best and could possibly make the frame from stall 1 Primos Comet should get a clear run and then stay on at the end of the race and contest others to make the frame, my money in this race will be riding on TABAAHY 12/1 who can track the leaders or be held up for a late run and this race looks likely to be run to suit its style and the jockey is 1-10 for the stable on the AW tracks and more importantly he is 1-2 on the stables older horses.

Tabaahy 12/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bet: The Armed Man +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day: -1pt

6:40 Kempton Racing Tips (9th October)

KEMPTON 6.40 

Only 6 runners with 1 natural front running type plus 1 that has been known to lead if nothing else wants to and even then there's only 2 that I don't think can win this race, Tropics is 2nd top rated on c/d times from 2018 but only 1lb behind DANZAN 10/1 who looks the most likely pacesetter in this race and with an easy lead this one could go really well, Unabated is rated 2lbs better but that's using its best time from Chelmsford which is the same surface as here but top-rated using its Chelmsford time is ROYAL BIRTH 11/4 but this ones best time here is quite a few pounds lower, so as you can see the waters are fairly muddy and my stakes will not be at full strength and the betting may be the final decider on what I do with this race and that may even be leaving it alone altogether. 

Royal Birth 11/2 2nd 
Danzan 10/1 4th 

NEWCASTLE 7.25 

This class 4 race looks good for the grade with 3 known frontrunners in the field of 14, I will stick with my top 4 ratings, Bowson Fred is 4th top but is on a long losing run of 39, this frontrunner could make the frame but not one I could back to win, Archimedes is my 3rd top-rated and I've given this as a selection twice fairly recently and it won both times, its another frontrunner and if allowed an easy lead it could go very well again here, my 2nd top-rated is Henley who races as though further would suit it better but with a fast early pace its stamina could come into effect but my top rated is TATHMEEN 10/1 who is another that stays on strongly at the end of the race and with the make-up of this race it could play into its hands or hooves in this case.

Tathmeen 10/1 8th