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Thursday, 30 July 2020

Pontefract Racing Tips & Lay Bets (31st July)

PONTEFRACT 1.25 

A race with a few lightly raced sorts and it doesn't look a race to be getting too heavily involved in betting wise, I will look to lay (*Magical Effect + Musharrif + Six Strings) as for finding the winner I've narrowed it down to 4 and I think I will be dutching them all, THE ARMED MAN 25/1 (EW) is only 4th top-rated but could be the one to set the pace and with an easy lead could pinch the race from the front so has to be an each-way bet at the price, FIRMDECISIONS 33/1 (EW) is 3rd top on 2020 times and on overall times so has to have a chance so another big enough to back each way, KINDLY 4/1 is 3rd best on 2020 times but is top-rated overall but that figure is only 2lbs higher than *FINAL FRONTIER 16/1 (EW) who’s best time was recorded this year which has to count for something and has to be the 3rd horse to be worth backing each way. 

*NR

Kindly 4/1 2nd (-1pt)
Firmdecisions 33/1 4th (-2pts)
The Armed Man 25/1 8th (-2pts)

Lay best: Musharrif +1pt, Six Strings +1pt

Total: -3pts

GOODWOOD 3.15 

A shame there's only 7 runners and to be honest, it looks like a one horserace and I expect BATTAASH 1/3f will be an odds on favourite, it ought to win cosily according to my speed figures and if pushed I would go with backing the 3-year-old Liberty Beach for the forecast. 

Battaash 1/3 1st 
Liberty Beach 5/1 4th 

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.35

Save the best till last, I do prefer the AW racing as I seem to be able to see the overall picture much more easily, I will look to lay (Our Man In Havana + Awsaaf + Creek Harbour + Eastern Star + Kingsman Spirit + Where Next Jo) Cameatchoo is top-rated on just 2020 times and this 3yo could still improve, Pushkin Museum would be in the frame if reproducing its best time but that was back in 2018 and hasn't been at that level for a while now, Perfect Symphony would be in the mix as long as the early pace isn't too fast but that might not happen with Peachey Carnehan in the races this one likes to set the pace and could do enough from the front to stay in the frame so maybe an each-way bet, my money will be riding on FANTASY JUSTIFIER 14/1 (EW) who will be held up for a late run here and is big enough in price to be worth an each-way punt.

Fantasy Justifier 28/1 Unp (-2pts)

Lay bets: Our Man In Havana +1pt, Awsaaf +1pt, Creek Harbour +1pt, Eastern Star +1pt, Kingsman Spirit +1pt, Where Next Jo +1pt

Total: +4pts

Total on the day:  0pts

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