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Saturday, 5 September 2020

2:00 York Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th September)

YORK 2.00 

A nice looking Listed race, the going is given as good but PLEASE check before betting, I would look to lay (Judicial 9/2 as it may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace which i expect here) of the front runners I think Mum's Tipple 14/1 may do best and could do enough to make the frame, Major Jumbo and Galadriel are the other two that have been known to lead before, my 2nd top rated is Aristocratic Lady who can be held up at the back or run in the middle of the pack and could stay on for a place but my money will be riding on the 3yo STARMAN 4/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a 21% win ratio for this stable. 

Starman 4/1 1st (+4pts) Betfair (6.2pts)

Lay bets: Judicial +1pt

Total: +5pts

MUSSELBURGH 2.55

I think this race could be won from the front and it looks set to be a fast and furious affair, I will look to lay (Indian Pursuit 9/2 + Amazing Alba 7/2 + Gorgeous Gobolina 5/1) as all 3 might need further to show their best form, if I go back to 2018 Bashiba would have every chance of winning this race but seems to be on a downward spiral at the age of nine, Henley is another that would do well on 2018 times but again going downhill aged eight and I would lay this one if in a single figures price, the same applies again to Lydiate Lady aged eight, the 3yo Maybelline 25/1 could go well and maybe worth an each way punt but I'm not confident enough to put it forward as such, my money will be riding on THE DEFIANT 9/2 who is a front runner and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.

The Defiant 9/2 Unp (-1pts)

Lay bets: Amazing Alba (Betfair -7.6pts), Indian Pursuit +1pt, Gorgeous Gobolina +1pt 

Total: -5.6pts

MUSSELBURGH 3.30

I was going to leave this race alone until something caught my eye, the one I will be having a small bet on doesn't want fast ground so good going should be ideal but it was the price that swayed me to take the risk so I will have a small each way wager on ECONOMIC CRISIS 22/1 (EW) although the jockeys 0-18 record for the stable is off-putting.

Economic Crisis 22/1 2nd (+4.5pts) 

Total: +4.5pts

Total +3.9pts 

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