3:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (14th November)

LINGFIELD 3.40 6F LISTED 

What a cracking race, I might not be saying that after the race, there's 12 runners and 2 known front running types and Highland Dress from stall 1 could be the one to set the pace but I doubt it will stay there long enough to win the race unless it gets an uncontested lead and then it might do better than i think, i can only see two horses i would lay but I suspect they will be at least double figure prices, Good Effort, Soldiers Minute, Burmese Waltz, Sunday Star and Jovial could all go well here and i certainly wouldn't put anybody off backing any of them, the horse that is my top rated using a time from Chelmsford is SHIMMERING DAWN 11/1 (EW) it has never run at this course before but its best time at Kempton would also make it my top rated, this one has a trainers win stats of 21% while the jockey is 20% on anything from the stable it goes up to 36% when riding the stables older horses and hopefully from stall four it can get a good early position from which to attack late on and at a double figure price it has to be given as an each way punt. 

Shimmering Sea 16/1 8th (-2pts) 

Total: - 2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30 5F Class 5 

I can see 3 front running types in this dash and also 3 that I could lay but I think Bahuta Acha might be the only one of the 3 at a single figure price, there are a few that have some piece of form that would make them competitive, Secretfact isn't well drawn in stall 10 and may struggle to get a clear run, Klopp usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance and could possibly at least make the frame, the 3yo May The Sixth is top rated on just 202 c/d times but that time is quite a few spots below the ratings of others in the race from elsewhere, Shamshon is a possible pacesetter and could go quite well but its best time was from 2018, YOU'RE COOL 16/1 (EW) is my joint top rated and one of the possible front runners so it could prove hard to catch and it would be sole selection if it wasn't for the jockeys 1-29 record on the stables older horses, the bottom weight ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 14/1 (EW) is the other joint top rated admittedly that time was recorded in 2018 but it hasn't run over the c/d since that year, the trainer has an 18% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 2-4 for the stable which makes me think they are expecting a big run in this race both of them are double figure prices so i have to suggest backing them both each way.

You're Cool 16/1 3rd (+2.2pts)

Roundabout Magic 18/1 5th (-2pts)

Total: +0.2pts

Total on the day: -1.8pts

1:40 Chelmsford Racing Tips & Lay Bets (27th August)

CHELMSFORD 1.40 

With all the rain around I'm glad to see theses 3 AW races but they are not the greatest of affairs, Pushkin Museum is one of 2 in this race that have been known to lead, it hasn't shown much for quite a while now and its best from 2016 wouldn't be good enough to win this race, I would look to lay (*Pull Harder Con who might find this trip too far in the make-up of this race, the same applies to Toolatetodelegate, Badger Berry might not like this surface) Valley Belle has a time from 2018 that would make it competitive but i will be backing POPPY MAY 20/1 (EW) who is the other possible pacesetter and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it has to be advised as an each way wager. 

*NR

Poppy May 20/1 4th (-2pt)

Lay bets: Toolatetodeletegate +1pt, Badger Berry +1pt

Total 0pt 

CHELMSFORD 2.10 

The 3yo Comeatchoo has a time from Kempton which would make it my top rated as would its best time from Lingfield who both have this surface but its 2 runs over this c/d have been quite a lot lower speed figure wise and the jockey has a 0-32 record for this stable, I will look to lay (Alba Del Sole and Superiority as both may need further to shine) Bernie's Boy should be staying on at the finish and could make the frame but my money will be riding on ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 13/2 who has the plum stall 1 draw and its time that makes it my top rated was recorded this year, the only downside to this race is the lack of known early paced types.

Roundabout Magic 13/2 5th -1pt 

Lay Bets: Alba Del Sole +1pt, Superiority +1pt

Total: +1pt

LINGFIELD 7.00

Half of the 12 runners are 3yo’s so not usually a race I would be interested in and my stakes wont be at full strength, I will be hoping IMPART 14/1 (EW) can lead from start to finish and according to early tissue prices it will be an each way price and may be worth an each way punt at the price.

Impart 22/1 Unp (-2pt)

Total: -2pt 

Total on the day: -1pt

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th February)

SOUTHWELL 2.00 

The bottom four in the handicap hasn’t shown anything worthwhile and would normally be lays but two of them are 3yo which can improve without warning and this race will not take much winning, Eesha Says is my 3rd top-rated and the most likely pacesetter in the race so could go well if allowed an easy lead, Amazing Amaya is in 2nd top spot but I will have a small bet on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 2/1 hoping it can break its AW duck at the 4th attempt after finishing 2nd twice in 2 of its 3 previous goes but I have to say I hate backing favourites mainly because they represent poor value.

Sambucca Spirit 15/2 6th 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.40

Only 6 runners where I can lay (Top Boy + Grayboy) both Six Strings and Sandridge Lad need to improve timewise to win this race but I cannot split GLOBAL MELODY 6/1 and AL SUIT ELLE 5/1 as there is only 2lbs between them on my figures and there's nothing in the trainer/jockey stats to point me to one or the other so I will be backing them both. 

Global Melody 14/1 3rd 
Al Suit Elle 5/1 5th 

Lay bets: Top Boy (+1pt) Grayboy (+1pt) 

Total 0

CHELMSFORD 6.15

This looks and is a competitive affair where I can only find (Tone The Bartone) to lay and I will be dutching 3 of the 8 runners, ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 5/2 is the top-rated using just 2019/20 c/d times, SOMETHING LUCKY 5/1 is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to 2nd top overall, *EQUALLY FAST 7/2 hasn't any form at this course but its best time from Lingfield this year would make it top-rated overall, my stakes won't be at full strength in such a tricky race and the prices don't represent much value but I do my work two days in advance so I don't know the prices and let it influence my analysis. 

Roundabout Magic 6/1 6th 
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd 

Lay bets: Tone The Bartone (- 2pts)

*NR 

Total -4pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

There is nothing in this race I can put up as a lay although I am not sure what to expect from the topweight Irene May who hasn't run at this course before but could possibly find this surface plenty fast enough compared to its best speed figure from Wolverhampton, nearly every other horse in the race has some chance of making the frame, Kath's Lustre is my 2nd top-rated taking into account the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, Alicia Darcy is my original 2nd top-rated on a Lingfield time with only one poor run at this c/d to its name, my money will be riding on my top-rated FANTASTIC FLYER 9/1 who is moved even further clear with its apprentice jockey taking 5lbs off its back and has a good win ratio for this stable. 

Fantastic Flyer 9/1 1st 

Total +9pts

CHELMSFORD 7.45 

Div 1 Not too bad for a class 6 affair of the 12 runners I will look to lay (Black Isle Boy + Krazy Paving + *Caso Do Lago + Compton Abbey) Bahamian Heights would be on my list of potential winners on its best time from 2017 which would make it 2nd top-rated but has been well out of form lately, the topweight Broughton Excels has good trainer/jockey stats and is my 4th top-rated so could go well here but no value at 7/4, Spennys Lass is my 3rd top-rated but is on a losing run of 25 which isn't in its favour, I will be having a bet in this race but my stakes will be kept on the low side but I am taking a punt in hoping that DREAMBOAT ANNIE 16/1 attempts to make all the running as it has done before and at the price I have to have a bet on it. 

Dreamboat Annie 20/1 7th 

Lay bets: Krazy Paving (-7pts) Black Isle Boy (+1pt) Compton Abbey (+1pt) 

*NR 

Total -6pts 

CHELMSFORD 8.15  

Div 2 In this 2nd division, I will look to lay (Under Curfew + Jorvik Prince + Ghost Buy + Indian Affair) Englishman who won its last race is my 3rd top-rated and itis on a c/d time from 2019, sitting in 2nd top spot I have got Kyllukey but this ones losing streak has just reached double figures but it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without warning the same can be said about the one I will back in the race, INVISIBLE STORM 6/1 is on a losing run of 15 but its 4th place finish on its last run I am hoping is a sign that its ready to get back to winning ways. 

Invisible Storm 8/1 Unp (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Under Curfew (+1pt) Jorvik Prince (+1pt) Ghost Buy (+1pt) Indian Affair (+1pt)

Total +3pts

Total on Day +1pt 

12:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (31st December)

LINGFIELD 12.00 

MAN OF THE SEA is making its AW debut, it likes to track the leaders and has to be in the list of the potential winner.

ROUNDABOUT MAGIC is 3rd top-rated on just 2019 c/d times and 2nd top overall and a possible winner.

SUPERSEDED may not like this surface and hasn't been in form lately.

TERRI RULES would need to improve timewise to win here but one of only a few without a negative against its name so could make the frame.

FAREEQ will be trying to stay on at the finish but would need to bounce back to form and then could make the frame.

OH SO NICE hasn't any form on this surface and its best from elsewhere would leave it short of winning this race.

STARCHANT is a 13 runner maiden and generally, its form has been poor.

ASK THE GURU a potential frontrunner but not in form lately.

PHAROH JAKE another out of form beast and the jockeys 0-8 record for the stable doesn't make me think that it will bounce back to form here.

WANEEN on a losing run of 14 races and its best time would see it struggle to win.

SUMMARY: With many runners with negatives against their names it narrows it down to 4, 2 of the 4 I think may struggle timewise so I have it down to Man Of The Sea 7/2 who is making its AW debut and the one carrying my money ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 5/2 at the price there is very little value for a horse that's lost its last 20 races. 

Roundabout Magic 5/2 1st

See Eric's Secret Tip 

11:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (21st December)

LINGFIELD 11.45

There's only 10 runners with 2 known frontrunners but a tricky little race to analyse in fact I can only find one runner that I think has very little chance of winning, Pink Iceberg could be a big danger if allowed to dictate the early pace, it's only had one AW run before but it should like this surface, Starchant and Pharoh Jake are well-weighted on their best form but both are on long losing runs of 23 and 15 but cannot be discarded lightly, Fareeq will be trying to stay on strongly at the business end of the race and could make the frame but my money will be riding on ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 3/1 who can be held up or track the leaders, its best c/d time from just 2019 puts it into 3rd top spot but it has a time from 2018 that's 10lb higher and if capable of reproducing that time here it could get back to winning ways in this race. 

Roundabout Magic 3/1 3rd

LINGFIELD 12.20 

Looking at the draw Laith Alareen from stall 3 could gain control of the rails and then prove a big danger if taking to this surface but I cannot find a reason why it shouldn't like it, Chitra the other known frontrunning type is 3rd top on 2019 c/d times and 4th top overall, Lalania has a time from Chelmsford that would move it into 3rd top spot overall but hasn't any c/d time to work with, 2nd top spot goes to Something Lucky but it's on a losing run of 26 races which I find off-putting, so in this race, I have to back WARRIOR'S VALLEY 11/2 who likes to track the pacesetters and from stall 2 it should be able to get a good early position from which to attack late on in the race and the jockey booking looks a positive making me think that connections are expecting a big run in this race.

Warrior's Valley 6/1 4th

Related post: Do you know why they call Eric the Ace of Big Prices?