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Wednesday 18 November 2020

4:50 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (19th November)

NEWCASTLE 4.50 5f 

A full house of 14 runners with 3 known front runners in amongst them, I will look to lay Orvar, as long as its a single figure price, who hasn't been in form lately and not shown much time wise since 2018, all of these could run big races here, Watchable, El Hombre and Get Boosting, Venturous won last time out and being in form could run well again here and could make the frame, Big Les and Exalted Angel could be the 2 that set the early pace, I will be taking a bit of a punt on the 3yo BIRKENHEAD 17/2 (EW) who has only run here once before without showing much but its best time from Wolverhampton would put it in the mix while the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it into top spot and it will hopefully be an decent each way price. 
Birkenhead 10/1 7th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts


A ten runner affair and at class 2 is the highest rated sprint of the day, the 3yo Aberama Gold is forecast to be the favourite but I am not convinced this course will suit it so worth laying, there's 4 known front running types in the race and my top 2 ratings are in that group, Katheefa could go well if reproducing its best 2019 time, Lipsink could be a bit of a hidden danger, while Poets Dance may do best of those coming from off the pace, Spirit Of May has got stall 2 which could help its cause but I'm siding with NIGEL NOTT 5/1 who could be ok from stall 8 in the make-up of this race and if getting to the front ought to prove to be a hard nut to crack and I think the jockey booking looks a positive. 

Nigel Nott 5/1 2nd -1pt

Total: -1pt


This class 6 race is a bit patchy time wise with only 6 of the 14 runners have a recorded speed figure, I'm looking to lay (Daddy's Diva + Krazy Paving) if in single figure prices anything bigger and the value would be lost, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Vincenzo Coccotti who is a hold up type and will be staying on at the finish, the other is Rockesbury (non runner) who is one of 2 known front running types in the race and if getting to the front could be hard to catch but i do have one horse rated 2lbs higher so if *INDEPENDENCE DAY 12/1 (EW)
gets a clear run it could pick up the leader and at the price has to be an each way wager. 


Lay bets: Daddy's Diva +1pt, Krazy Paving +1pt

Total: +2pts


In this 2nd division there's 7 with recorded speed figures but very little is over this c/d and or recent, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Isabella Ruby and *AT YOUR SERVICE 13/2 and the latter is top rated on just 2020 times so has to be respected and will be carrying my money, Illustrious Spirit is 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time from earlier this year but hasn't been in good form lately, with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes wont be at full strength. 



Only a class 5 but a hard race to analyse to a conclusion in fact I will be dutching 3 horses, INVINCIBLE LARNE 5/2 is the favourite and could try to lead but from stall 8 but with 3 others that might try the same tactic it might get taken wide on the bend, it is my top rated using a Kempton time but this will be its debut at this course but if getting a run and taking to the track it could win but there is two 3yo’s in the race that could cause it some trouble nearing the finish who are both rated exactly equal so I will be backing both REASSURE 4/1 and ZULU ZANDER 14/1 just in case the top weight doesn't handle the course or the draw.

Reassure 7/1 1st (+7pts Betfair SP 10.14)
Zulu Zander 40/1 4th (-1pt)
Invincible Larne 5/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +4pts

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