4:50 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (19th November)

NEWCASTLE 4.50 5f 

A full house of 14 runners with 3 known front runners in amongst them, I will look to lay Orvar, as long as its a single figure price, who hasn't been in form lately and not shown much time wise since 2018, all of these could run big races here, Watchable, El Hombre and Get Boosting, Venturous won last time out and being in form could run well again here and could make the frame, Big Les and Exalted Angel could be the 2 that set the early pace, I will be taking a bit of a punt on the 3yo BIRKENHEAD 17/2 (EW) who has only run here once before without showing much but its best time from Wolverhampton would put it in the mix while the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it into top spot and it will hopefully be an decent each way price. 

Birkenhead 10/1 7th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

CHELMSFORD 5.30 6f 

A ten runner affair and at class 2 is the highest rated sprint of the day, the 3yo Aberama Gold is forecast to be the favourite but I am not convinced this course will suit it so worth laying, there's 4 known front running types in the race and my top 2 ratings are in that group, Katheefa could go well if reproducing its best 2019 time, Lipsink could be a bit of a hidden danger, while Poets Dance may do best of those coming from off the pace, Spirit Of May has got stall 2 which could help its cause but I'm siding with NIGEL NOTT 5/1 who could be ok from stall 8 in the make-up of this race and if getting to the front ought to prove to be a hard nut to crack and I think the jockey booking looks a positive. 

Nigel Nott 5/1 2nd -1pt

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.00 6f Div II

This class 6 race is a bit patchy time wise with only 6 of the 14 runners have a recorded speed figure, I'm looking to lay (Daddy's Diva + Krazy Paving) if in single figure prices anything bigger and the value would be lost, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Vincenzo Coccotti who is a hold up type and will be staying on at the finish, the other is Rockesbury (non runner) who is one of 2 known front running types in the race and if getting to the front could be hard to catch but i do have one horse rated 2lbs higher so if *INDEPENDENCE DAY 12/1 (EW)

gets a clear run it could pick up the leader and at the price has to be an each way wager. 

*NR

Lay bets: Daddy's Diva +1pt, Krazy Paving +1pt

Total: +2pts

CHELMSFORD 6.30 6f Div II

In this 2nd division there's 7 with recorded speed figures but very little is over this c/d and or recent, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Isabella Ruby and *AT YOUR SERVICE 13/2 and the latter is top rated on just 2020 times so has to be respected and will be carrying my money, Illustrious Spirit is 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time from earlier this year but hasn't been in good form lately, with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes wont be at full strength. 

*NR

CHELMSFORD 7.00 5f 

Only a class 5 but a hard race to analyse to a conclusion in fact I will be dutching 3 horses, INVINCIBLE LARNE 5/2 is the favourite and could try to lead but from stall 8 but with 3 others that might try the same tactic it might get taken wide on the bend, it is my top rated using a Kempton time but this will be its debut at this course but if getting a run and taking to the track it could win but there is two 3yo’s in the race that could cause it some trouble nearing the finish who are both rated exactly equal so I will be backing both REASSURE 4/1 and ZULU ZANDER 14/1 just in case the top weight doesn't handle the course or the draw.

Reassure 7/1 1st (+7pts Betfair SP 10.14)

Zulu Zander 40/1 4th (-1pt)

Invincible Larne 5/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +4pts

5:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (2nd November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50 

A 12 runner class 4 race with just one known front running type amongst them, there's 5 horses in the race, Minhaaj, Little Boy Blue, Eye Of The Water, Zulu Zander and Sound Of Iona, who can struggle to stay the trip of there's a fast early pace, Paddy Power would be in the mix being 2nd top overall if using its best time from Newcastle last year but has been in poor form lately and may be better over further, Chookie Dunedin is my 2nd top rated on just 2020 c/d times, STEELRIVER 15/2 who has good trainer stats at this course is top rated on just 2020 c/d times which is always a positive and it comes out 3rd best overall, GLOBAL PROSPECTOR 8/1 is my top rated overall plus its the only known front running type in the race, it would probably have been my sole selection if it wasn't for the jockeys 1-26 record when riding for this stable, so I will back both to cover the angles. 

Steelriver 16/1 8th (-1pt)

Global Prospector 10/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.50 Div I

Half of the field in this dash are known to like to lead so they might push each other too hard in the early stages and pay the price nearing the finish, the bottom weight You're Cool my 3rd top rated could do best of the pacesetters as it is top rated on just 2020 c/d times, TATHMEEN 9/2 is top is top rated on both c/d times and overall figures both from last year, the apprentice jockey booking looks a positive as he has a 20% win rate for the stable, REASSURE 7/1 is 2nd top rated overall using a Newcastle time from 2019 but this 3yo is open to improvement, it has good trainer, 31% jockey 23% win ratios but with a top class trainer. (W.Haggas) the price might reflect that point but I will be backing them both. 

Tathmeen 9/2 2nd (-1pt)

Reassure 17/2 8th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.20 Div II

In this 2nd division there is only one natural front runner, Fashion Advice and it has the plum stall 1 draw but for this 3yo this is its 1st run on an AW track so could be dangerous, another 3yo Heer We Go Again could also get into the mix, Duke Of Firenze is 3rd top overall and there is only 3lbs between my top 3 ratings on overall figures, the bottom weight Dynamo Walt has been in poor form lately but did record a good time this year before the lockdown but the jockeys 1-26 record puts me off but I could back this one as a covering bet just in case it bounces back to form without warning, my selection MUTABAAHY 4/1 should be staying on strongly at the finish and again has a good jockey booking.

Mutabaahy 9/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -5pts

6:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (19th October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 Div I

Not the greatest of races for a class 4 affair but being split into two divisions does help having slightly smaller fields in each race, there's 3 known front runners so it should be a mad dash for the line, LONGROOM 13/2 will probably do best of the pacesetters but this ones best time which puts it in top spot overall does come from Newcastle (the same surface but without a bend) and its best c/d time from 2019 would see it in the frame so will be carrying some of my money but the trainers 2-59 record at this course is a bit off-putting so it maybe wont be my main bet, both Mutabaahy and Dynamo Walt could go well if bouncing back to form, I will also be backing DREAM HOUSE 5/1 in this race who showed a return to form was on the cards when finishing 3rd last time out and the jockey does have a 18% win ratio on the stables older horses and is only 2lbs off of being the top rated and it being recent form it cannot be ignored. 

Dream House 5/1 3rd (-1pt)

Longroom 13/2 Unp (-1pt)

TOTAL: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 Div II 

This is definitely the better of the two divisions, I can only see You're Cool as a possible pacesetter and with an uncontested lead could be hard to catch but it usually does its winning in lower class races than this one and Show Me The Bubbly is another that has a decent time to its name but again its wins usually come in lower class affairs but either of them could possibly make the frame, Tathmeen is another that could possibly battle for a place in the frame but hasn't shown much of worth so far this year, my money has to riding on the top weighted REASSURE 9/2 who in this race is taking on inferior beasts and if this hold up type is able to reproduce its best time from Newcastle last year it would win cosily, the trainer has an over 30% win ration here at Wolverhampton and the jockey has an over 20% win ratio for the stable which hopefully means that connections are expecting to get back to winning ways in this race.

Reassure 11/2 8th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -3pts