3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (21st January)

LINGFIELD 3.30 

A field of 8 and one known front runner in POWER OVER ME 3/1 and its time from Chelmsford makes it rated 71 on my figures and could feasibly lead all the way, Madrinho is also rated 71 but that is using a 2018 figure, I've got 3 runners all rated 72, Knockout Blow would move to top spot on its own with the apprentices 5lb claim but its best form comes in class 6 races, Shamshon gets its rating from 2019 and hasn't been as good time wise in 2020 or this month, I will also be backing DESERT LAND 6/4 who recorded its 72 rating on its run last time out when winning and could follow up here but i will back them both to cover the angles, they are the first two in the betting which doesn't surprise me and with my ratings making it so close my stakes will be kept low. 

Power Over Me 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP 4.10 )

Desert Land 7/4 5th (-1pt)

Total: +2pts

LINGFIELD 4.00 

Not the greatest of races and then add on that its an apprentice jockeys race muddies the waters, i will look to lay (Everkyllachy 7/2) if its a single figure price as it may not stay the distance, Top Boy can find this trip a bit too far if there's a fast early pace and that might happen here but the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in apprentice races, Storm Melody would be top rated if i used its best time from Chelmsford but its only run over this c/d resulted in a low speed figure, Our Man In Havana could go well and is versatile with its racing tactics so maybe worth an each way wager if of value but my money will be riding on DREAMBOAT ANNIE 7/1 who could lead all the way in this race as it is the only natural front running sort in the entrants. 

Dreamboat Annie 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Everkyllachy +1pt

Total: 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Red Pike who is a 10yo seems to be on a downward spiral and has shown nothing worthwhile for awhile now but the 11yo LUCKY LODGE 11/1 is still going strong and has been found a decent chance to get back to winning ways here and at the price its worth an each way flutter, maybe its stablemate Tahmeen 3/1 will lead and set the race up for it and Tathmeen might even do enough from the front to make the frame but isn't an each Way price, I will also be backing PEARL OF QATAR 2/1 in this race, it is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and the jockey booking looks a positive one and comes out top on my figures. 

Pearl Of Qatar 2/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lucky Lodge 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

Another race where I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, El Hombre 4/1 is capable on its day but the trainer is 1-40 with its older horses at this course and the jockey is 0-14 which is enough to put me off its chances especially at the price, North Wind 12/1 might need a longer trip and the jockeys 0-19 record on the stables older horses makes me wonder if this one will be expected to win but it is a biggish price, Shoot To Kill could try to lead from stall 2 but it might be a bit outclassed at this level, I think/hope the early pace will be set by OUTRAGE 4/1 who has on 4 races been placed in 4 races from its 9 runs over this c/d and could possibly lead all the way here but I will also be backing BIRKENHEAD 13/2 who likes to track the leaders and from stall 1 should get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and the jockey does well for the stable.

Outrage 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Birkenhead 12/1 7th (-1pt)

Total: - 2pts

Total on the day: -2pts

5:15 Southwell Racing Tips (11th December)

SOUTHWELL 5.15 

A nice competitive class 4 race, Crosse Fire might be the one that sets the pace and could do enough to make the frame, Dark Shot has could lead if nothing else wants to but could go well if contesting the lead or just sitting behind the leaders but only if it can reproduce its best from 2019 but this years times would leave it a little short, I will be going with 2 selections in this race, MULZIM 5/1 will be running on at the finish and has good trainer/jockey stats to back up its claims as does my 2nd selection BIRKENHEAD 9/2 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish. 

Birkenhead 9/2 2nd (-1pt)

Mulzin 6/1 8th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.15 

This class 6 race is quite poor even for the class, I would look to lay (Tilsworth Rose + Dark Side Dream + Alyaaf + Bluella) if they are in single figure prices, the early pace looks likely to be set by WAQAAS 12/1 (EW) who hasn't any surface form but looking at its turf form it should be ok on this surface but I will also be backing ARCHIMEDES 10/1 (EW) who is usually held up for a late surge but my stakes won't be at full strength in this race but small each way punts may prove profitable. 

Abandoned 

SOUTHWELL 7.45 

This 2nd division looks even worse, First Excel could go well from stall 1 although its versatile with its racing tactics and has been known to lead if nothing else wants to but there is a natural front runner in the race but could still make the frame, my 3rd top rated Badger Berry should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but could make the frame, Le Manege Enchant is my 2nd top rated and likes to track the leaders and then stay on dourly at the finish but i am hoping that JAZZ LEGEND 4/1 can lead from the off and once ahead it could prove hard to peg back.

Abandoned

Total on the day: -2pts

4:50 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (19th November)

NEWCASTLE 4.50 5f 

A full house of 14 runners with 3 known front runners in amongst them, I will look to lay Orvar, as long as its a single figure price, who hasn't been in form lately and not shown much time wise since 2018, all of these could run big races here, Watchable, El Hombre and Get Boosting, Venturous won last time out and being in form could run well again here and could make the frame, Big Les and Exalted Angel could be the 2 that set the early pace, I will be taking a bit of a punt on the 3yo BIRKENHEAD 17/2 (EW) who has only run here once before without showing much but its best time from Wolverhampton would put it in the mix while the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it into top spot and it will hopefully be an decent each way price. 

Birkenhead 10/1 7th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

CHELMSFORD 5.30 6f 

A ten runner affair and at class 2 is the highest rated sprint of the day, the 3yo Aberama Gold is forecast to be the favourite but I am not convinced this course will suit it so worth laying, there's 4 known front running types in the race and my top 2 ratings are in that group, Katheefa could go well if reproducing its best 2019 time, Lipsink could be a bit of a hidden danger, while Poets Dance may do best of those coming from off the pace, Spirit Of May has got stall 2 which could help its cause but I'm siding with NIGEL NOTT 5/1 who could be ok from stall 8 in the make-up of this race and if getting to the front ought to prove to be a hard nut to crack and I think the jockey booking looks a positive. 

Nigel Nott 5/1 2nd -1pt

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.00 6f Div II

This class 6 race is a bit patchy time wise with only 6 of the 14 runners have a recorded speed figure, I'm looking to lay (Daddy's Diva + Krazy Paving) if in single figure prices anything bigger and the value would be lost, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Vincenzo Coccotti who is a hold up type and will be staying on at the finish, the other is Rockesbury (non runner) who is one of 2 known front running types in the race and if getting to the front could be hard to catch but i do have one horse rated 2lbs higher so if *INDEPENDENCE DAY 12/1 (EW)

gets a clear run it could pick up the leader and at the price has to be an each way wager. 

*NR

Lay bets: Daddy's Diva +1pt, Krazy Paving +1pt

Total: +2pts

CHELMSFORD 6.30 6f Div II

In this 2nd division there's 7 with recorded speed figures but very little is over this c/d and or recent, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Isabella Ruby and *AT YOUR SERVICE 13/2 and the latter is top rated on just 2020 times so has to be respected and will be carrying my money, Illustrious Spirit is 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time from earlier this year but hasn't been in good form lately, with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes wont be at full strength. 

*NR

CHELMSFORD 7.00 5f 

Only a class 5 but a hard race to analyse to a conclusion in fact I will be dutching 3 horses, INVINCIBLE LARNE 5/2 is the favourite and could try to lead but from stall 8 but with 3 others that might try the same tactic it might get taken wide on the bend, it is my top rated using a Kempton time but this will be its debut at this course but if getting a run and taking to the track it could win but there is two 3yo’s in the race that could cause it some trouble nearing the finish who are both rated exactly equal so I will be backing both REASSURE 4/1 and ZULU ZANDER 14/1 just in case the top weight doesn't handle the course or the draw.

Reassure 7/1 1st (+7pts Betfair SP 10.14)

Zulu Zander 40/1 4th (-1pt)

Invincible Larne 5/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +4pts