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Monday, 15 March 2021

1:35 Southwell Racing Tips (16th March)


SOUTHWELL 1.35 

Only 7 runners but there is a couple of known front runners in the race, I will look to lay (Marwari) who has a good time from Newcastle but its 2 runs over this c/d haven't seen it go fast enough to register on my graphs, Gossip could attempt to lead but seems to set a slow pace, or maybe its the slow going here, True Hero is the other one that might lead and if getting an easy lead it could be dangerous but is only 3rd best on my figures, Qaaraat comes out 2nd best but from its 10 runs over this c/d it has only won twice but has been placed in the other 8 races so would be a nice each way bet but is forecast to be the favourite so I will side with ARZAAK 8/1 who is top rated using its best 2020 time and could win a shade cosily if able to reproduce that figure, I will also have a covering bet on True Hero just in case it gets an easy lead and then hold on to repel any challengers. 

Arzaak 9/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Marwari +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.45 

This is a class 4 race so it should be quite good but i have a feeling there's a few runners that are having a run in preparation for when the turf season kicks into gear so any stakes will be kept on the low side, Lord Oberon looked good when winning last time out and that time would be good enough for 2nd top spot so I will expect it to run well here and I also expect it will be he favourite to win the race, I will go with what looks the value call and back ZYLAN 8/1 who has been known to lead before and if getting to the front from stall 9 it could prove hard to catch and hopefully it will be an each price and the 3lb claiming apprentice has a 16% win ratio for the stable. 

Zylan 12/1 5th -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

This is a low class stakes race which seems to be new approach to let low grade horses have a chance of winning and most of the races are quite dire and if looking for recent 2020/21 c/d form there is virtually nothing to work with the only exception being RED STRIPES 7/1 this natural front running horse seems to have very little if any opposition for the lead, unless something changes its usual racing tactics, yes it is a 9 year old and certainly isn't as good as it once was but one day it will win another race by leading all the way and maybe that day will be in this race. 

Red Stripes 7/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

This looks a good race for a class 5 affair with 11 runners but only one known front runner, I will look to lay (Zulu Zander 9/1) as long as it stays a single figure price, who seems better over five furlongs, Al Suil Elle may need further to show its best so this race might not be run to suit it, I wouldn't try to put anyone off backing the top weight Save The Spirit, Devils Angel does well at this c/d winning twice and placed twice from just 5 runs but would need to improve time wise to win this race, Good Night Mr Tom and Hart Stopper may need the run for fitness, I think that Kilconquar might be outclassed at this level, the same might be apply to to the bottom weight ABSOLUTE DREAM 13/2 but this one is the only known front runner and could dominate the race from the front and may take some catching but I do think that ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 6/1 could catch it as its only rated 1lb below it on recent c/d form but has a time from 2019 that would see it catching it quite cosily but I will be backing them both to cover both angles.

Athollblair Boy 6/1 2nd -1pt 
Absolute Dream 6/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Zulu Zander +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

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