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Wednesday 14 April 2021

3:00 Newmarket Racing Tips (15th April)


A group 3 race with 7 runners and to be honest on paper it looks like a one horse race in the shape of OXTED 8/11 and I expect it to be an odds on shot and if running to its best should win nicely, so I started looking at the forecast and I would think Emparaaty Ana 9/1 who is my 3rd top rated will set the pace to the race and could pinch enough to hold on for 2nd spot, the other one possibly for the forecast is Summerghand 7/1 who comes out 2nd best on my figures so in theory it should also catch the leader, the tissue betting says the 3 horses mentioned will be the first 3 in the betting so it will depend on the day if there's any value in having a forecast but Oxted might be worth adding to a multiple bet. 

Oxted/Summerghand 1 Point Straight Forecast -1pt
Oxted/Emaraaty Ana 1 Point Straight Forecast -1pt

Total -2pts

RIPON 3.25 

A field of 14 in this race and there's 2 possibly 3 that could set the pace to the race but all 3 of them, Mid Winster, Spartan Fighter and Marks Choice would need to improve time wise to win this race, so what is going to pick them up, Round The Island has a good speed figure but it comes from lower class races to this one, I've got 3 I could lay, Mid Winster, Klopp Of The Kop and Mutanaaseq if they are single figure prices, Dark Defender my 2nd top rated doesn't want it to be too firm but it has won after a break before so it could be fit enough to do itself justice but i had to go back to 2018 to find this ones best time and since then its been running a stone below its best, I will be pinning my hopes on FOX HILL 12/1 who is my top rated using time from this year when it finished 7th in a fast run affair but this one has a time 7lb faster from 2020 so a repeat of either this years or last years time would see it back to winning ways but at the price I would think an each way wager is the way to go. 

Fox Hill 12/1 ½ Point Each Way 7th -2pts
Mid Winster 4/1 2 Points Lay +2pts
Mutannaseq 9/2 1 Point Lay +1pt
Klopp Of The Kop 9/1 1 Point Lay +1pt

Total +2pts

RIPON 5.40 

Another 7 runner race while this one has 3 possible pacesetters but its for apprentice jockeys only, Afandem would need to improve time wise to win this from the front and seems better with some cut in the ground so might not be able to go the early pace in this race, Abate has a fast enough time from 2019 to make it my 2nd top rated but its speed figure during 2020 was way way below that level and during the last 5 years the trainer is 0-10 in apprentice races which doesn't bode well, Canford Bay is another that has a good time from 2019 but wasn't near that level during 2020, Mutabaahy comes out 3rd best on my overall figures and it was recorded in 2020 and won last time out on the AW, my money will be riding on DAPPER MAN 4/1 who comes out 2nd top on 2020/21 times but if this one can reproduce its best from 2019 it would get back to winning ways and the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in older horse apprentice races so i am hoping that means they expect it to go well here and I am hoping this is the one that can lead all the way. 

Dapper Man 4/1 1 Point Win 1st +4pts (Betfair SP 4.1)
Afandem 9/4 2 Points Lay +2pts

Total +6pts

Total on the day +6pts 

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