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Monday, 21 June 2021

4:30 Chepstow Racing Tips (21st June)

HEPSTOW 4.30 Div I 

I was going to leave this race alone until I saw the betting, the top weight ICONIC KNIGHT 12/1 (EW) is dropped in class for this race and has a good jockey stats, so I thought it was worth the risk at the price and a small each way punt might pay dividends. 

Iconic Knight 12/1 7th -2pts

Total -2pts


Firstly I will look to lay (Pastfact 15/2 who might prefer a longer trip and hasn't shown much time wise for quite a while now + Leo Davinci 8/1 who also may need a longer distance on good to firm ground and the jockey is 0-11 for the stable) the early pace could well be set by the top weight PRINCELY 8/1 but this one hasn't shown much time wise since 2018 and that time would make it 3rd top on my figures so with an easy lead it could possibly be dangerous and might be worth an each way bet if a double figure price, SIR RODERIC 9/1 is 2nd top on my figures and it usually stays on at the finish and could also be worth an each way bet if of value to do so and the same could be said of my top rated horse IM WATCHING YOU 10/1 and to tell the truth I cannot really split my top 3 ratings and will go with backing them all. 

Princely 8/1 1st +8pts 
I'm Watching You 10/1 3rd -1pt 
Sir Roderic 9/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: Pastfact +1pt, Leo Davinci +1pt 

Total +8pts


This looks a competitive affair for a class 5 race and the only known front runner is now a non-runner and that always muddies the waters, I cannot find anything to lay in this race which backs up my theory of how competitive the race actually is, I have narrowed it down to 4 possible winners, GHEPARDO 13/2 my 4th top rated who usually runs on at the business end of a race over this distance, GLAMOROUS FORCE 7/2 who is my 3rd top rated and these two have both recorded their best times this year which is always a good pointer but I have SHOW ME THE BUBBLY 14/1 as my 2nd top rated but this time i am using a 2020 time from Bath but the jockeys 1-26 record is off-putting but it might be worth an each way punt at the price, my top rated is AQUADABRA 4/1 and the jockey Luke Morris has a good record when riding for today's stable, I will have to dutch all 4 of them but maybe tilting slightly in favour of my top rated but with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes will be kept low.

Glamorous Force 7/2 3rd -1pt 
Aquadabra 9/2 4th -1pt 
Show Me The Bubbly 14/1 5th -1pt
Ghepardo 15/2 6th -1pt

Total on the day +2pts

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