3:10 Leicester Racing Tips (20th September)

LEICESTER 3.10 

Only a poor turnout of 7 runners for a class 3 handicap but it should be a true run affair, the good to firm ground maybe against First Edition 5/1 and might be worth laying that's if the rain stays away but that doesn't look likely according to the weather forecast, Celsius 8/1 comes out in 3rd top spot using a time recorded at Ascot and does run fairly constantly when given the right conditions - distance, going and class, Ginger Jam 7/2 is the one that comes out 2nd best on my figures using a time from Beverley last year but my top rated is FAUSTUS 11/4 who is one of two known front running types in this race and if it gets to the front it should prove hard to catch plus it has decent trainer stats and good jockey stats making me think its fancied by the stable. 

Faustus 11/4 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet: First Edition +1pt

Total 0pts

LEICESTER 3.45 

A tricky race to analyse with 7 of the 9 runners either being 3yo’s or lightly raced 4yo’s, I think Bailey's Afterparty 10/1 may need further to shine so might be worth laying if of any value to do so, Dodgy Bob 25/1 is one of two front running sorts in this race and comes out 3rd best on my speed figures but hasn't been in good form lately which is reflected in its price, my 2nd top rated is Amathus 4/1 who is quite versatile with its tactics apart from racing from the front but that is what I expect WE’RE REUNITED 7/2 will do in this race and if leading it could prove hard to catch but the trainers 0-9 in the last 2 weeks and its 40 days since the stables last winner which doesnt boost my confidence over its chances of winning but i will be having a small bet on it. 

We're Reunited 4/1 3rd -1pt 

Bailey's Afterparty +1pt

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

A 10 runner race over 5 furlongs with 4 front running types in the field, I will look to lay both Expert Opinion 10/1 who might not really like this surface and Kingsholme 10/3 who may struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace which I expect there to be in this race, if they are single figure prices, Kim Wexter 12/1 and Mutabaahy 12/1 could both go well and might be worth an each way interest at double figure prices, my idea of the winner and the value call is TANTASTIC 20/1 (EW) who will be trying to stay on strongly at the business end of the race, the trainer is 4-17 for the last 2 weeks so is in good form so I'm hoping this one adds to their tally but at the price it has to be an each way wager. 

Tantastic 20/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bets: Expert Opinion +1pt, Kingsholme +1pt

Total 0pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

A 13 runner race where 5 of them have been known to lead before, the betting will be the deciding factor if there's any lays or not and it looks like not, of the front runners Freedom Flyer and Champagne Supernova could do best of those racing to the fore but I doubt they will hold on for the win as neither are in my top 4 ratings, Jackstar is my 4th top and Zamjar sits in 3rd top spot and could fill the minor places, Tomshalfbrother is top rated on just 2021 times but that time isn't good enough to make my top 5 but it has a time from 2020 that makes it 2nd top on overall figures so may be worth an each way interest but my money will be riding on ICONIC KNIGHT 11/2 who hasn't raced over this distance so far this year and this drop back in trip will suit it, its best time from 2020 makes it my top rated and the jockey booking looks a positive one so lets hope that's a good pointer and follows up its win last time out.

Iconic Knight 13/2 8th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

4:30 Chepstow Racing Tips (21st June)

CHEPSTOW 4.30 Div I 

I was going to leave this race alone until I saw the betting, the top weight ICONIC KNIGHT 12/1 (EW) is dropped in class for this race and has a good jockey stats, so I thought it was worth the risk at the price and a small each way punt might pay dividends. 

Iconic Knight 12/1 7th -2pts

Total -2pts

CHEPSTOW 5.00 Div II 

Firstly I will look to lay (Pastfact 15/2 who might prefer a longer trip and hasn't shown much time wise for quite a while now + Leo Davinci 8/1 who also may need a longer distance on good to firm ground and the jockey is 0-11 for the stable) the early pace could well be set by the top weight PRINCELY 8/1 but this one hasn't shown much time wise since 2018 and that time would make it 3rd top on my figures so with an easy lead it could possibly be dangerous and might be worth an each way bet if a double figure price, SIR RODERIC 9/1 is 2nd top on my figures and it usually stays on at the finish and could also be worth an each way bet if of value to do so and the same could be said of my top rated horse IM WATCHING YOU 10/1 and to tell the truth I cannot really split my top 3 ratings and will go with backing them all. 

Princely 8/1 1st +8pts 

I'm Watching You 10/1 3rd -1pt 

Sir Roderic 9/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: Pastfact +1pt, Leo Davinci +1pt 

Total +8pts

CHEPSTOW 5.30 

This looks a competitive affair for a class 5 race and the only known front runner is now a non-runner and that always muddies the waters, I cannot find anything to lay in this race which backs up my theory of how competitive the race actually is, I have narrowed it down to 4 possible winners, GHEPARDO 13/2 my 4th top rated who usually runs on at the business end of a race over this distance, GLAMOROUS FORCE 7/2 who is my 3rd top rated and these two have both recorded their best times this year which is always a good pointer but I have SHOW ME THE BUBBLY 14/1 as my 2nd top rated but this time i am using a 2020 time from Bath but the jockeys 1-26 record is off-putting but it might be worth an each way punt at the price, my top rated is AQUADABRA 4/1 and the jockey Luke Morris has a good record when riding for today's stable, I will have to dutch all 4 of them but maybe tilting slightly in favour of my top rated but with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes will be kept low.

Glamorous Force 7/2 3rd -1pt 

Aquadabra 9/2 4th -1pt 

Show Me The Bubbly 14/1 5th -1pt

Ghepardo 15/2 6th -1pt

Total on the day +2pts

4:45 Bath Racing Tips (21st May)

BATH 4.45 

I have posted this race in the hope that the going is at least good which it is forecast to be but with showers everywhere I will watch the earlier races to look at the going before I place any bets, if there is any cut in the ground then leave the race alone. 

BAY WATCH 6/1 is usually staying on at the finish over this distance and time wise it needs to improve to win this race neither a bet or lay. 

GINGER JAM 10/1 is in my top 5 speed ratings so could go well but the trainer is 0-5 with their older horses and is usually held up and then finishes strongly. 

PETTOCHSIDE 10/1 the trainers 0-16 record is off-putting but the apprentice jockey has won all 3 of her wins on this horse and is 3-7 for this stable and with her 7lb allowance it could go well again in this race. 

NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND 7/1 has a relatively slow time but in its favour is that it was recorded this year and usually likes to track the pacesetters. 

BOOM THE GROOM 6/1 isn't the horse of old and at this distance usually finds things happening too quickly for it and I would look to lay it if a single figure price. 

CENTURIAN SONG 6/1 hasn't any form over this distance on turf and it either wants a longer trip or a slower surface or maybe both and another i would look to lay if a single figure price. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 8/1 hasn't shown much lately on good ground and might be better when raced in a lower class race than this class 4 affair. 

SENECA CHIEF 14/1 this ones best time is just outside my top 5 ratings and can be held up or track the leaders but I'm doubting it could win this race but never say never.

GREY GALLEON 8/1 this ones best time was recorded back in 2018 and its another horse that will be better suited when its dropped in class and one I would lay if a single figure price. 

SECRETFACT 12/1 hasn't won since 2019 and even then its best form was recorded in lower class races and may struggle here but I expect it will be a double figure price so no value to lay. 

ICONIC KNIGHT 18/1 this one has a time over this course and distance from last year that would make it my 2nd top rated and this class holds no fears and could go well in this race. 

CORONATION COTTAGE 15/2 is the one i think might lead in this race but all its best speed figures are from lower class races. 

SUMMARY: This isn't a bad looking race but it is quite hard to analyse so my stakes will be kept low, I will look to lay the horses I mentioned in the write up above but I will be hopefully be able to have two small each way wagers in the race, as the apprentice does well on this horse the first each way bet is PETTOCHSIDE 10/1 (EW) and I hope it is a double figure price the second each way bet will be on ICONIC KNIGHT 18/1 (EW) this ones trainer does well at this course and the jockey has won once and been placed in ten other races from seventeen c/d runs so it would maybe be better doing the place part only on a betting exchange.

No bets (soft ground) 

1:55 Haydock Racing Tips & Lay Bets (11th August)

HAYDOCK 1.55 

I can see 3 or possibly 4, Queen Of Kalahari, Galloway Hills, Redrosezorro and The Armed Man in this race that might try to set the pace and they may push each other a tad too much in the early exchanges and play into the hands of a hold-up type, Paddy Power has a time from Hamilton in 2019 that would see it make the frame but hasn't shown much so far this year, with the make-up of this race I think the connections have found a good opportunity for ICONIC KNIGHT 6/1 to follow up its win last time out and its best time from Windsor last year is good enough to win this race and the trainer has a good strike rate at this course. 

Iconic Knight 6/1 6th (-1pt)

Total: (-1pt)

HAYDOCK 2.25

If the going is good to firm I will look to lay (Camachess + Dark Silver + Somewhere Secret) and I will have to ducth 3 runners in this race to cover the angles, firstly BASHIBA 33/1 is top-rated on 2019/20 times and has an even faster time from 2018 that would see it win cosily but it hasn't been in good form lately but it is capable of bouncing back to form without prior warning and the jockey does ok for this stable, secondly, PAVER'S PRIDE 4/1 who could set the pace in this race and is 2nd top-rated on 2020 times and only 2lbs off top spot so could go well from the front, thirdly BOUDICA BAY 14/1 is top-rated on just 2020 times so has to be on my list of the potential winner it's not a race to be wading in too heavily but dutching the 3 runners could prove profitable. 

Paver's Pride 4/1 2nd (-1pt)
Bashiba 33/1 5th (-1pt)
Boudica Bay 16/1 7th (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Somewhere Secret (-8.5pts) Betfair SP (11.64), Camachess +1pt, Dark Silver +1pt

Total: -9.5pts 


WOLVERHAMPTON 3.10

What a race and not in a good way, yes something does have to win the race I have some ideas but also I have negatives against most of those with a recorded speed figure plus it wouldn't take much improvement from many of the horses to win this race. I will lay both (Qaaraat + Hard Solution) who both seem better over shorter distances, Watheer has a jockey record of 0-19, Maid Millie has a trainer record of 0-26 and a jockey record of 0-11, Sharrabang, who is one of 3 known frontrunners, has a trainer record of 1-78 and the jockey is0-11, Kinglami the jockey's record is 0-46, in fact, the jockey has never ridden a winner on the AW, I've got *FANTASY JUSTIFIER 25/1 as my 2nd top-rated using a 2019 time but if it can reproduce its best of 2018 it could win cosily and as it it is also the only one without negative trainer/jockey stats it has to be the one I will back.

*NR

Lay bets: Hard Solution +1pt

Total: +1pt

Total on the day: -9.5pts