The bottom weight world Of Windhover 9/2 may set the pace to this race but its best time which comes from Kempton on the AW isn't good enough to win this race so I doubt it will hold on for the win, I will look to lay Stone Circle if its a single figure price as I don't think it will like today's going as it seems to do its best when there's some cut in the ground, My Style, Devils Angel, Mount Hogan and Churchill Bay are all closely rated with just 3lbs between them and any of them could make the frame but I will putting my money on THEOTHERSIDE 5/1 who is from the Hannon stable who have a 19% win ratio at this course with their older horses it best time from this year isn't good enough for the win but its best time from Windsor last year would see it winning this race a shade cosily.
Theotherside 5/1 2nd -1pt
Lay Stone Cirle +1pt
Total 0pts
HAYDOCK 6.50
This handicap looks strange with four 3yo’s being at the top of the handicap and the older horses filling the bottom five positions, more of a problem is the lack of known front running types, Kim Wexter is my 4th top rated with Madreselva 2lbs higher in 3rd top spot but these two 3yo’s could have some improvement still to come, Celerity is having its 104th race here and has never won a race but did record one decent time is one of the 13 races where it made the frame at Lingfield my top rated is BOUDICA BAY 2/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and if the early pace is slow then I hope it will sit prominently and then stay on the stronger.
Boudica Bay 11/4 1ST +2.75pts
Total +2.75pts
HAYDOCK 7.20
At least in this 10 runner race there is a coupe of known front runners in the field, Tweet Tweet and Son And Sannie come out joint top rated using just 2021 times and the latter has good jockey stats but their speed figures are only good enough for joint 3rd top on overall figures, I've got INDIAN SOUNDS 5/1 as my top rated using a time recorded at Bath in 2020 and the jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses but the top weight MOUNTAIN PEAK 4/1 who is one of the likely pacesetters, is my 2nd top rated overall using a time recorded last year over this course and distance and the trainer does well at this course and will be backing both of them to cover the angles.
Indian Sounds 7/1 2nd -1pt
Mountain Peak 4/1 5th -1pt
Total -2pts
DONCASTER 8.35
I hope all 8 runners remain as I am hoping to go with an each way bet on HARROGATE 13/2 who is one of 2 known front running types in the race and if getting to the front it could possibly lead all the way but because the race is for apprentice jockeys my stakes will be kept low, I have found 3 that I will look to lay, *Dandys Max has poor trainer/jockey stats and is still a maiden after 8 races, Lucky Beggar who has poor trainer/jockey stats and may need further to show its best, Mehmo who is still a maiden after 18 races plus it might not like the going if its good to firm ground and may also need a longer distance to shine, I might well have added Powerallied to the list of possible lays but that might be one step too far but as usual they will only be lays if they are a single figure price at the off.
*NR
Harrogate 13/2 6th -1pt
Lay bets Lucky Beggar +1pt, Mehmo -6pts
Total on the day -5.25pts
No comments:
Post a Comment