4:35 Southwell Racing Tips (1st April)

SOUTHWELL 4.35 

There is a few I could lay in this race if they are of value to lay, Militia 15/2 may need the run for fitness, Fine Wine 4/1 might be better on the Polytrack surface and Media Guest who might need further to show its best, half of the 10 runners have led before so it should be a true run race, one who might lead is who Rolfe Rembrandt 11/4 won last time out at Newcastle where the surface was riding slow so could be anything and could improve for the win but doesn't represent value, Thegreatestshowman 16/1 would have a chance using its best rating from Wolverhampton last year but the stable hasn't had a winner for 27 days, I will be having a bet on AIRSHOW 6/1 who hasn't any form to work with from Newcastle and Wolverhampton but does have the highest rating over this course and distance since they laid the new Tapeta surface. 

Airshow 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Fine Wine -5.5pts, Media Guest +1pt 

Total -5.5pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.05 

A lack of known front running types might not matter too much in the make-up of this race,I will look to lay Louis Treize 6/1 who might prefer a longer distance but does have good trainer/jockey stats but could be worth a small lay bet and the same applies to Twentysharesofgrey 5/1, using just recent course and distance ratings then Knockabout Queen 33/1 would come out in top spot but its best rating from Wolverhampton is a good few spots below DRISH HERO 4/1 who won last time out leading all the way at Wolverhampton has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here as a repeat of that rating would see it winning this race comfortably. 

Drish Hero 4/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Louis Treize +1pt, Twentyshadesofgrey +1pt 

Total +1pt  

SOUTHWELL 7.10 

A competitive looking class 3 race with a full house of 14 runners with 4 known front running types amongst them, I will look to lay the top weighted Mighty Gurkha if its a single figure price as its been out of form recently and the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and the jockeys record for the stable is 1-29 which doesn't inspire confidence in its chances of winning despite it being a possible pacesetter but Global Warning, Politics and Ben Mcdull could all go well from the front and any of them could make the frame, Muscika comes out in joint top spot but the stables been 0-10 in the last 2 weeks and its been 13 runners and 47 days since the stable last tasted success, so my money will be riding on the other joint top rated SHALLOW HAL 7/1 who is also my top rated on just recent course and distance speed figures and it also has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Shallow Hal 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.10 

I will look to lay Billy Dylan 8/1 who can record a decent rating but usually when getting a good tow in a fast run race but its still not won on any of the AW tracks in 20 previous attempts and the trainer is 0-27 at this course and the jockey is 0-8 which doesn't bode well for its chances of success, another one to lay is Ustath 7/2 who runs ok on either slow ground or in slow run races and I doubt it can win this race, its been 21 runners and 34 days since the trainer of Ustath had a winner, I can add High Security 10/1 to the lay list as it might need this run for fitness and has poor trainer 1-26 and jockey 1-66 stats but as usual that's if they are single figures near the off, Brandy Station 10/1 comes out in top spot for just recent c/d speed figures so could go well and might be worth a small each way interest but is a good few spots below BLACKCURRENT 8/1 who comes out in top spot using a Newcastle rating recorded last year and the apprentice jockeys allowance could help its cause further.

Blackcurrent 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Ustath +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -5.5pts 

2:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th March)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

There's 3 known front runners in this race, Swiss Pride 6/1 is one of them and is capable of recording a high speed figure but all in lower class races so maybe not up to winning this race, I'm not sure what to expect from Twilight Heir 12/1 and I'm doubtful that Impeach 5/1 can lead all the way for the win while Night On Earth 10/1 may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace so I will be laying it if of value, as for the winner I will probably have a small covering bet on Jacks Point 9/2 who ran well last time when finishing 2nd and could possibly go one better here but my main bet will be riding on COUNT OTTO 13/2 who at first glance looks out of form but did record a good time the time before last over this course and distance and the jockey has a decent strike-rate for the trainer. 

Count Otto 14/1 7th -1pt

Lay bet Night On Earth +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

I hope all 8 runners take part and the pace will most likely be set by Khabib 11/2 who won last time out and holds Tathmeen 9/1 on that run but both of them might be outclassed at this level and time wise the winner would need to improve a few spots and might be worth laying if a shortish price but it is a 4yo who could be improving my lay stake will be kept low, Gowanlad 3/1 might be better racing over further and the jockey is 1-19 for the stable it might be another one to lay, as for the winner I'm hoping that GLORIOUS RIO 14/1 (EW) who is housed in stall 8 next to the probable pacesetter so could get a good tow into the race before staying on the stronger at the finish and the jockeys 29% win ratio on the stables older horses is hopefully a good pointer and at the odds it has to be an each way wager.

Glorious Rio 22/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

Not a race to get too excited about but the early pace could be set by Ustath but it hasn't been in good form lately, it would be a surprise if those in the bottom four in the handicap were to win this race, Million Reasons 5/2 has been in cracking form but it was either slow going or a slow run race when it won over c/d last time out and it should go well again here but I expect it will be fairly short in the market, I will take a bit of a punt in this race on DUE A WIN 13/2 who has been placed in 4 of its 8 AW races but is still a maiden after 11 races in total and can find this distance a bit too far if there's a fast early pace which might not happen here so it could have a chance to get off the market in this race. 

Due A Win 13/2 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

Once again I hope all 8 runners take part in case I find an each way bet, I'm not sure this is the best surface for the front running Nigel Nott 8/1 and would lay it if of value to do so, Ghatnanfar 15/2 might need this run for fitness so another one to lay, I actually think the early pace will be set by SPARTAN FIGHTER 3/1 who I tipped up last time out when it won priced at a ten to one, the apprentice jockey does well riding for the stable and it could lead all the way again here but I cannot let SHALLOW HAL 11/2 run without having a bet on this one as well it usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and the jockey has a 29% win ratio on the stables older horses and could be the one to prosper if the leader/s fade in the closing stages.

Spartan Fighter 5/1 1st +5pts 

Shallow Hal 11/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Nigel Nott +1pt, Ghatnanfar +1pt 

Total +6pts

Total on the day  +3pts

3:12 Southwell Racing Tips (24th February)

SOUTHWELL 3.12 

Only 7 runners so maybe no each way bets, I will look to lay Broken Spear 8/1 who may need further and this surface might not suit it, Patsy Fagan comes out 2nd top rated but that was recorded in lower class races so might not be able to repeat those ratings in this class of race but I'm not sure I could lay it, Global Warning 5/1 may set the pace to the race and being my 3rd top rated it could take some catching but I do have SHALLOW HAL 5/1 rated higher and this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.

Shallow Hal 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.47 

There's 9 runners this time, I could look to lay Hey Mr 6/1 if its a single figure price as this isn't its favoured surface and Corinthia Knight who hasn't been in form lately and its last AW win was back in 2018, Mulzim 28/1 might be overpriced if the tissue prices are to be believed and could possibly make the frame, AIRSHOW 7/1 might have been my sole bet in this race as its my top rated using recent c/d ratings here but the trainers 1-27 win ratio at this course is a little bit off putting plus its been 9 runners and over a month since they last had a winner, NIGHT ON EARTH 4/1 comes out top rated using Tapeta times either at Newcastle or Wolverhampton and this one usually runs on well in the closing stages of the race. 

Airshow 7/1 2nd -1pt 

Night On Earth 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 4.22 

A class 6 stakes race where Papa's Girl 3/1 should win being the top rated on the official handicappers ratings but is only 4th top rated on recent c/d speed figures so maybe not of value to back, I was going to look to lay Arzaak 5/1 who seems better on the Polytrack but with no known front runners in this race that might not matter too much but Gleaming Maize 8/1 may prefer further and this race might not be run to suit it so maybe worth laying if a single figure price, my money will be riding on BLUELLA 16/1 who usually stays on at the business end of a race and does look to be running into form and the stable is in good form at the present. 

Bluella 16/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Arzaak +1pt

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

A poor turnout of just 5 runners for this race where Alablaq might set the early pace and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as a longer trip might suit it better and is dropped in class to run at this level, I will look to lay Gowanlad 9/4 who might prefer a longer distance and this race might not be run to suit it plus its got poorish trainer stats with an 8% win ratio while the jockey is 2-31 and 0-18 on the stables older horses, my money will be riding on TATHMEEN 3/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish. 

Tathmeen 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Gowanlad -2pts

Total -3pts

NEWCASTLE 8.00 

The pacesetter in this race is likely to e Joshua R and it could be dangerous if allowed to dominate and set its own slower early pace, Elzaal 15/2 comes out top rated but may need this run for fitness after a 136 days break, Amazing Amaya 9/2 could go well and make the frame but would need to improve a little time wise to win this race if others reproduce their previous best, I will be looking to back the top weight TANASOQ 7/1 who is a previous course and distance winner and the jockey has a 27% win ratio when riding for this stable, it should be staying on strongly in the closing stages of the race

Tanasoq 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -7pts

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th January)

When I write these blogs I hope you don't just look at the selections in capital letters or the lays in brackets and underlined because you could be missing things that you could use to your advantage. I write these blogs two days before the race and I post the night before and things can change with non-runners and how the betting changes things so my ramblings might help your decision making. 

SOUTHWELL 1.10 

Just 8 runners with 3 known front running types who are drawn in the 3 inside stalls and its a race where i will have to back a front runner and one coming from off the pace just in case they go off too fast and tire nearing the finish,I think Alexej will be at the fore of the betting and I think mainly because its from the powerful stable of J.Gosden and the jockey R.Havlin but its runs from 2020 were all over further that the 6 furlongs here and stayed on at the finish so I'm surprised its dropped down in trip, obviously it could be a very superior horse compared to the rest and win despite it not being ideal conditions but I will lay it if a short price, I am hoping that ZYLAN 10/3 can get to the front and if doing so it could prove hard to catch being my 2nd top rated but I do have SHALLOW HAL 10/1 rated just 3lbs higher so may need a trouble free run to pick up the pacesetters hence the 2 bets, both have decent trainer stats and have good jockeys stats in fact their stats are identical and it looks as though both stables are expecting to win. 

Shallow Hal 10/1 1st (+10pts) (Betfair SP 6.86) 

Zylan 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Total: +9pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

Down to 6 runners for this race but with 2 known front runners it should be a true run affair but both of the pacesetters would need to improve time wise to win this race, Ornate one of them has a good 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 5 c/d runs and the other King Of Stars has won twice from just 4 previous c/d runs, Giogiobbo may stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win the race, Diamond Dougal hasn't any course form but could take to this surface and be a hidden danger, Tawny Port is my 2nd top rated using a 2019 time but it hasn't any recent c/d form to work with, my money will be riding on THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 4/1 who is well handicapped and will be winning again soon and has every chance to do so here. 

Thegreatestshowman 4/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

Up to 9 for this race but only one front running type in the shape of Gossip who is dangerous if allowed to set its own slightly slower pace and has won 2 of its 4 previous c/d races but there is a few who like to track or press the leader so maybe wont be able to pinch the race from the front, Marwari has a good time from Newastle but I'm not sure this surface will suit it, Pearl Of Qatar has good trainer/jockey stats and will be staying on at the finish but could struggle if its a slow run affair and if it wasn't for the good trainer/jockey stats i would lay it and if its a short price i might still lay it, the jockey has a 25% win ratio for the stable but it still means hes beaten in 3 out of every 4 races, i will be siding with ARZAAK 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and has won 3, placed 5 from 13 c/d runs so likes the course. 

Arzaak 12/1 8th (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

I was going to leave this class 6 stakes race well alone and I will only bet in the race if my selection is a double figure price, that horse is STAR CRACKER 10/1 who can spring back to form without warning and might be worth having a small risky each way bet if its of value

Star Cracker 11/1 3rd +1.75pts

Total on the day: +8.75pts