1:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (5th July)

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.00 

A poor looking class 6 race where I cannot confidently find anything of value to lay and as for the winner that's just as vague, Charming Kid 12/1 and Secretfact 8/1 could be the one/s to set the early pace and the former could be a danger if allowed an easy lead and sets its own slower than usual pace and then kick-on and try and pinch the race from the front, Duke Of Firenze 12/1 is my 3rd top rated has good jockey stats but its 34 runners and 113 days since the stable last had a winner, Scale Force 7/1 is my 2nd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish the jockeys 0-4 record for the stable is a bit off-putting but the trainer has had a 2-9 winners in the last 2 weeks and might be the safest option in the race, top rated is Billy Dylan 4/1 but the trainer is 0-34 at the this course and hasn't had a winner from 13 runners over the last 180 days while the jockey is 0-9 for the stable, I think the winner will come from these three but which one I'm not sure and maybe dutching all 3 is the way to go. 

Duke Of Firenze 12/1 2nd -1pt 

Scale Force 7/1 6th -1pt 

Billy Dylan 11/1 7th -1pt 

Total -3pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.30 Div I 

This 1st division has a couple of front runners so it should be a true run race for the class, Wrought Iron 7/2 won last time out but in a slow run affair but I'm not sure I could lay this 3yo but it doesn't look good value at the price to win this race, I could possibly lay *Rogue Storm (non-runner) who looks better suited to a shorter trip, Million Reasons 10/1 might get outpaced in the early stages and then stay on too late to catch the leaders so another possible lay, Freedom Flyer 18/1 is my 3rd top rated and one of the possible pacesetters and could do enough to make the frame as long as it doesn't get drawn into a battle for the lead in the early stages, Independence Day 6/1 could be the one to do best of those coming from off the pace being my 2nd top rated but I will be hoping that *DRISH HERO 9/2 can set the pace to the race and then prove too hard to catch for the rest of the field. 

*NR

Total - 

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.00 Div II 

This 2nd division only has 1 known front runner, I cannot see much to lay that I think be of value to do so but the betting will be the final decider, Youllovemewheniwin and Salta Resta are my joint 4th top rated horses, sitting in 3rd top spot is Griggy 7/1 but this one can find the trip a bit too far if there's a fast early pace which might happen in this race and the same applies to Gustav Graves 4/1 who sits in 2nd top spot but I am hoping that PORTELET BAY 13/2 who is the aforementioned front runner and my top rated so if setting the right pace should be able to keep the others at bay and lead all the way.

Portelet Bay 13/2 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

PONTEFRACT 3.45 

A field of 8 so lets hope they all run although I don't think I can see and each way bet, I cannot see anything of value to lay in this race so lets look for the winner, Chairmanoftheboard 6/1 is my 3rd top rated but that is using its best time from 2020 so not sure if it can repeat that rating so maybe I was wrong and this one could be worth laying, Recall The Show 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but that was recorded in lower class races than this one so maybe another I could look to lay but that's a bit risky if LAMPANG 10/1 doesn't do what I expect, it is my top rated and its the only known front runner in the race so hopefully it can lead all the way here and does have decent trainer/jockey stats. 

Lampang 10/1 1st +10pts 

Total +10pts

BRIGHTON 5.40 

A field of 12 with 3 known front running types, I can eliminate 5 of the runners as having virtually, never say never, no chance of winning but will all be double figure prices, King Crimson 6/1 is a possible pacesetter and my 4th top rated so could go well but the jockeys 0-10 record for the stable is off-putting, Hot Hot Hot 5/1 comes out 3rd best and will be trying to stay on at the finish but its only won once from 16 previous runs on turf and the jockeys record is 1-22 for the stable, Arzaak 4/1 is my 2nd top rated but its 141 days and 50 runners since the stable last had a winner, my top rated is Lethal Angel 16/1 but the trainer is 0-7 at this course and hasn't had a winner in the last month from 21 runners, I think the winner is most likely to come from my top four ratings but with them all having negatives against them I'm not sure which one will win so dutching the four of them might be the way to go or if there's no value in dutching them then maybe leaving the race alone might be best or is an each way bet on the outsider of the 4 the way to go. Not bet. 

Total on the day +6pts

4:35 Southwell Racing Tips (1st April)

SOUTHWELL 4.35 

There is a few I could lay in this race if they are of value to lay, Militia 15/2 may need the run for fitness, Fine Wine 4/1 might be better on the Polytrack surface and Media Guest who might need further to show its best, half of the 10 runners have led before so it should be a true run race, one who might lead is who Rolfe Rembrandt 11/4 won last time out at Newcastle where the surface was riding slow so could be anything and could improve for the win but doesn't represent value, Thegreatestshowman 16/1 would have a chance using its best rating from Wolverhampton last year but the stable hasn't had a winner for 27 days, I will be having a bet on AIRSHOW 6/1 who hasn't any form to work with from Newcastle and Wolverhampton but does have the highest rating over this course and distance since they laid the new Tapeta surface. 

Airshow 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Fine Wine -5.5pts, Media Guest +1pt 

Total -5.5pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.05 

A lack of known front running types might not matter too much in the make-up of this race,I will look to lay Louis Treize 6/1 who might prefer a longer distance but does have good trainer/jockey stats but could be worth a small lay bet and the same applies to Twentysharesofgrey 5/1, using just recent course and distance ratings then Knockabout Queen 33/1 would come out in top spot but its best rating from Wolverhampton is a good few spots below DRISH HERO 4/1 who won last time out leading all the way at Wolverhampton has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here as a repeat of that rating would see it winning this race comfortably. 

Drish Hero 4/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Louis Treize +1pt, Twentyshadesofgrey +1pt 

Total +1pt  

SOUTHWELL 7.10 

A competitive looking class 3 race with a full house of 14 runners with 4 known front running types amongst them, I will look to lay the top weighted Mighty Gurkha if its a single figure price as its been out of form recently and the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and the jockeys record for the stable is 1-29 which doesn't inspire confidence in its chances of winning despite it being a possible pacesetter but Global Warning, Politics and Ben Mcdull could all go well from the front and any of them could make the frame, Muscika comes out in joint top spot but the stables been 0-10 in the last 2 weeks and its been 13 runners and 47 days since the stable last tasted success, so my money will be riding on the other joint top rated SHALLOW HAL 7/1 who is also my top rated on just recent course and distance speed figures and it also has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Shallow Hal 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.10 

I will look to lay Billy Dylan 8/1 who can record a decent rating but usually when getting a good tow in a fast run race but its still not won on any of the AW tracks in 20 previous attempts and the trainer is 0-27 at this course and the jockey is 0-8 which doesn't bode well for its chances of success, another one to lay is Ustath 7/2 who runs ok on either slow ground or in slow run races and I doubt it can win this race, its been 21 runners and 34 days since the trainer of Ustath had a winner, I can add High Security 10/1 to the lay list as it might need this run for fitness and has poor trainer 1-26 and jockey 1-66 stats but as usual that's if they are single figures near the off, Brandy Station 10/1 comes out in top spot for just recent c/d speed figures so could go well and might be worth a small each way interest but is a good few spots below BLACKCURRENT 8/1 who comes out in top spot using a Newcastle rating recorded last year and the apprentice jockeys allowance could help its cause further.

Blackcurrent 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Ustath +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -5.5pts