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Wednesday 27 April 2022

3:25 Musselburgh Racing Tips (28th April)


A poor turnout of just 6 runners and the problem of no known front running types in the race which always makes analysis very much harder, I think The Thin Blue Line 3/1 might prefer some cut in the ground and it might be too short for Bossipop 11/1 so I could look to lay both of them, Primo's Comet 6/1 can handle good going but isn't so keen on good to firm ground so another that I could lay if its fast ground, Cool Spirit and Good Luck Fox are in joint 2nd top spot but I will be relying on ATLYAH 9/4 who won last time out on an AW surface a word of warning is that it hasn't won from 6 tries on grass but a repeat of its best Ripon time from 2021 would see it winning with a bit in hand. 

Atlyah 3/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets The Thin Blue Line -1pt, Bossipop +1pt 

Total -1pt


A nice race for a class 6 affair where I can see 2 or possibly 3 runners that have been known to lead before although I do think they will only be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace, I don't think its a race where you should be betting very heavily and maybe the lays are the way to make a profit from this race I've got Kodiak Attack 7/1 who needs to improve time wise may prefer the Tapeta surface compared to this Polytrack surface plus has poor jockey 0-3 and trainer 0-20 with its older horses stats, San Juan 4/1 seems better on the Tapeta surface but does have good jockey stats so it will be a small lay and Perfect Symphony 11/2 who might prefer further, who might all be of value to lay, I will be having a small bet on REAL ESTATE 7/1 who recorded its best rating over this course and distance which is always a bonus. 

Real Estate 7/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets San Juan +1pt, Perfect Symphony +1pt 

Total +1pt 


Capla Spirit 6/1 may find this distance too far with the fast pace I expect to be applied in this race while Legende D’Art 6/1 may need further to show its best so both might be worth laying if of value price wise, there's only 2lbs between Stone Circle, Storm Melody and Mr Fayez so they could be each way chances but I will be hoping that SOYOUNIQUE 10/3 can set the pace here and lead all the way for a victory, it has good trainer 16% and jockey 19% stats which is usually a positive and a reproduction of its best rating from Lingfield this year it would win a shade cosily. 

Soyounique 10/3 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Legende D'Art +1pt, Capla Spirit +1pt

Total +1pt 


Not a bad looking class 5 race with one known front runner among the 10 runners, both Ruby Cottage 5/1 and Sweet Pursuit 10/1 may need this run for race fitness and worth laying if single figure prices especially the latter who has needed its 1st run after a break every time so far, there's 5 horses that have been in poor form in their recent races which narrows the field down but I expect those 5 will all be double figure prices, Some Nightmare 7/4 might go ok here and could make the frame but isn't an each way price, I will be splitting my money in this race between VAPE 5/2 who is my top rated but doesn't have the best trainer/jockey stats and the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks while TAWAAFOQ 13/2 is the one that could set the pace to this race, it has won before first time after coming back from a break and has been known to win before without giving any warning about coming back to form and the trainer does have a decent 19% strike rate at this course.

Vape 8/1 2nd -1pt 
Tawaafoq 16/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Ruby Cottage +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day 0pts

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