3:25 Musselburgh Racing Tips (28th April)

MUSSELBURGH 3.25 

A poor turnout of just 6 runners and the problem of no known front running types in the race which always makes analysis very much harder, I think The Thin Blue Line 3/1 might prefer some cut in the ground and it might be too short for Bossipop 11/1 so I could look to lay both of them, Primo's Comet 6/1 can handle good going but isn't so keen on good to firm ground so another that I could lay if its fast ground, Cool Spirit and Good Luck Fox are in joint 2nd top spot but I will be relying on ATLYAH 9/4 who won last time out on an AW surface a word of warning is that it hasn't won from 6 tries on grass but a repeat of its best Ripon time from 2021 would see it winning with a bit in hand. 

Atlyah 3/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets The Thin Blue Line -1pt, Bossipop +1pt 

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 4.05 

A nice race for a class 6 affair where I can see 2 or possibly 3 runners that have been known to lead before although I do think they will only be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace, I don't think its a race where you should be betting very heavily and maybe the lays are the way to make a profit from this race I've got Kodiak Attack 7/1 who needs to improve time wise may prefer the Tapeta surface compared to this Polytrack surface plus has poor jockey 0-3 and trainer 0-20 with its older horses stats, San Juan 4/1 seems better on the Tapeta surface but does have good jockey stats so it will be a small lay and Perfect Symphony 11/2 who might prefer further, who might all be of value to lay, I will be having a small bet on REAL ESTATE 7/1 who recorded its best rating over this course and distance which is always a bonus. 

Real Estate 7/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets San Juan +1pt, Perfect Symphony +1pt 

Total +1pt 

CHELMSFORD 5.45 

Capla Spirit 6/1 may find this distance too far with the fast pace I expect to be applied in this race while Legende D’Art 6/1 may need further to show its best so both might be worth laying if of value price wise, there's only 2lbs between Stone Circle, Storm Melody and Mr Fayez so they could be each way chances but I will be hoping that SOYOUNIQUE 10/3 can set the pace here and lead all the way for a victory, it has good trainer 16% and jockey 19% stats which is usually a positive and a reproduction of its best rating from Lingfield this year it would win a shade cosily. 

Soyounique 10/3 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Legende D'Art +1pt, Capla Spirit +1pt

Total +1pt 

CHEPSTOW 6.10 

Not a bad looking class 5 race with one known front runner among the 10 runners, both Ruby Cottage 5/1 and Sweet Pursuit 10/1 may need this run for race fitness and worth laying if single figure prices especially the latter who has needed its 1st run after a break every time so far, there's 5 horses that have been in poor form in their recent races which narrows the field down but I expect those 5 will all be double figure prices, Some Nightmare 7/4 might go ok here and could make the frame but isn't an each way price, I will be splitting my money in this race between VAPE 5/2 who is my top rated but doesn't have the best trainer/jockey stats and the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks while TAWAAFOQ 13/2 is the one that could set the pace to this race, it has won before first time after coming back from a break and has been known to win before without giving any warning about coming back to form and the trainer does have a decent 19% strike rate at this course.

Vape 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Tawaafoq 16/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Ruby Cottage +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day 0pts

1:00 Goodwood Racing Tips (30th April)

GOODWOOD 1.00 

Only 7 runners but a nice looking class 3 affair except for the lack of early pace, Minhaaj hasn't been in form so looks a likely outsider, Green Power hasn't shown anything time wise since 2019 and maybe another bigger priced horse, Top Breeze may find this distance too far if there is fast early pace so I'm not sure whether to lay it or not but if under 5/1 may be worth taking the risk, Concierge may prefer longer but time wise needs to improve to win this race, Open Wide is 3rd top even if I use its best time from 2019, Atlantis Boy usually stays on at the finish and is my 2nd top rated but I will be backing BIMBLE 5/2 who is usually hold up type so I am hoping there is a decent early pace for it to aim at and has good trainer/jockey stats making me think the connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways here. 

Bimble 5/2 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt 

MUSSELBURGH 3.35 

Another 7 runner race but class 4 this time, where my top 4 ratings all recorded their times this year but once again its a race with no known front runner in the field, Mid Winster may need further to shine so this race might not be run to suit it, Primos Comet sits in 4th top spot but doesn't want really fast ground, the top weight Victory Angel comes out 3rd best and is usually held up for a late run, Afandem my 2nd top rated is another that doesn't want really fast ground, I will be pinning my faith and money on FASHION ADVICE 7/2 who recorded its best time over this c/d and the jockey has a decent 18% strike rate for the stable. 

Fashion Advice 7/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHEPSTOW 4.00

Isn't a great race even for class 5 standards, anything I think will be a lay bet looks likely to be too big in price to be worth risking things, Major Valentine comes out 3rd best and Rainbow Mirage in 2nd top spot and both of them recorded their best times at Windsor this year, maybe even the same race as I've not looked as I analyse each horse separately, my money will be riding on VAPE 11/2 who recorded its best time at Salisbury this year and has made the frame in all of its last 3 runs on turf and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. 

Vape 6/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.55

This might be a class 5 race but its a nice looking one, there is 3 runners in the race that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run affair, there is very little between Good Night Mr Tom, Tomily, Jungle Speed, Oakenfield and Absolute Dream who are my 6th to 2nd top rated (not in ratings order I worked from the top to the bottom of the handicap) but I will have a punt, and it is a punt on HART STOPPER 13/2 who is my top rated using its best c//d time from last year, it hasn't shown much lately but it won last year on its third run of the year and this is its third run of this year so I am hoping that lightning will strike again this year. 

Hart Stopper 13/2 2nd -1pt 

Total - 1pt

NEWCASTLE 8.25 

Down to class 6 here and gladly there is a couple of known front running types in the race, the top weight Ventura Express is forecast to be the favourite for this race but I have a feeling it is a better horse over a longer trip and that would usually be enough for me to lay it but it is dropped in class in this race, it won over this distance at Pontefract last time out but that course is a lot slower than today's, in fact there's just over 3 seconds difference between them over the minimum trip and a horse covers 19 yards per second at this course so maybe I will lay it if poor value, I've got Quanah, Gorgeous Gobolina and Atyaaf as my co 4th favourites, Suwaan at the bottom of the handicap comes out 3rd best, Another Angel comes out 2nd best on its best effort from 2020 and it is one of the likely pacesetters, the other likely pacesetter is ROCKLEY POINT 7/1 who recorded its time this year which is always a positive and the jockey has a decent 15% win ratio on the stables older horses.

Rockley Point 7/1 3rd - 1pt 

Total on the day -5pts