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Showing posts with label Atlyah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlyah. Show all posts

Friday, 13 May 2022

2:55 Thirsk Racing Tips (14th May)

THIRSK 2.55

A field of 9 in this class 4 race with First Company the one most likely to set the pace unless something else decides to change its usual racing tactics but I doubt it can hold on for the win, if the going is good to firm then Ballintoy Harbour 10/1 could run well and might be worth an each way punt, Leodis Dream 15/2 has a time from Windsor last year that would put it in the mix and it usually likes to track the leaders, Havagomecca 7/1 is my 2nd top rated and is usually held up for a late run but ATLYAH 6/1 likes to sit just behind the leaders ready to pounce and comes out top on my figures, the trainers record of 0-7 at this course isn't great but the jockey is 2-4 when riding for the stable. 

Atlyah 6/1 1st +6pts 

Total +6pts

CHELMSFORD 3.45 

The betting will decide if there's any lays in this race but Sir Rodneyredblood 7/1, Harold Shand and Twilight Madness 5/1 are potential candidates, Toussarak is my 3rd top rated and usually runs on strongly at the finish, Crimson Sands 3/1 and City Walk 11/2 are both dropped in class to run in this race and could go well and on times the former could do best of the pair, my money will be riding on ARAIFJAN 15/2 who won in this class of race last time out but has been raised four pounds by the official handicapper, it is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and maybe in the make up of this race from stall 8 wont attempt to lead but could sit handily and stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Araifjan 16/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Toussarak +1pt 

Total 0pts

THIRSK 4.05 

A very competitive looking class 3 sprint with fourteen runners, Saluti might prefer a longer distance but would need to improve time wise if others run to their best, RATHBONE 11/2 is the one that I expect will set the pace to this race and is my joint 2nd top rated so could do enough to at least make the frame and if allowed the luxury of an easy lead could hold on for the win I'm not sure how good the 7lb claiming apprentice is but if worth the full 7lbs it comes out in top spot, Tinto is my original top rated but hasn't been in the best of form recently the trainer has poorish single figure win ratio at this course but the jockey has a decent 17% win ratio on the stables older horses, Music Society starts off as joint 2nd top but drops to 3rd top spot but the jockeys poor 1-20 win ratio for the stable is a bit off-putting but it will be staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but could make the frame. 

Rathbone 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

DONCASTER 8.40 

Let me stay from the start this isn't really a race to be betting in too heavily in but PRINCE OF BEL LIR 4/1 won last time out over this distance at Yarmouth 18 days ago which is a reasonably flat course so this course should also suit it and the rating it recorded in that race puts it well clear of anything else I've got a rating for in this race and could lead all the way here and follow up that Yarmouth win, yes it is raised in class from a 5 to a 4 but this 4yo ought to be able to win at this slightly higher class, I don't expect it will be anything but the favourite for this race I'm just hoping its not too short a price.

Prince Of Bel Lir 4/1 +4pts 

Total +4pts

Total on the day +9pts

Wednesday, 27 April 2022

3:25 Musselburgh Racing Tips (28th April)

MUSSELBURGH 3.25 

A poor turnout of just 6 runners and the problem of no known front running types in the race which always makes analysis very much harder, I think The Thin Blue Line 3/1 might prefer some cut in the ground and it might be too short for Bossipop 11/1 so I could look to lay both of them, Primo's Comet 6/1 can handle good going but isn't so keen on good to firm ground so another that I could lay if its fast ground, Cool Spirit and Good Luck Fox are in joint 2nd top spot but I will be relying on ATLYAH 9/4 who won last time out on an AW surface a word of warning is that it hasn't won from 6 tries on grass but a repeat of its best Ripon time from 2021 would see it winning with a bit in hand. 

Atlyah 3/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets The Thin Blue Line -1pt, Bossipop +1pt 

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 4.05 

A nice race for a class 6 affair where I can see 2 or possibly 3 runners that have been known to lead before although I do think they will only be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace, I don't think its a race where you should be betting very heavily and maybe the lays are the way to make a profit from this race I've got Kodiak Attack 7/1 who needs to improve time wise may prefer the Tapeta surface compared to this Polytrack surface plus has poor jockey 0-3 and trainer 0-20 with its older horses stats, San Juan 4/1 seems better on the Tapeta surface but does have good jockey stats so it will be a small lay and Perfect Symphony 11/2 who might prefer further, who might all be of value to lay, I will be having a small bet on REAL ESTATE 7/1 who recorded its best rating over this course and distance which is always a bonus. 

Real Estate 7/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets San Juan +1pt, Perfect Symphony +1pt 

Total +1pt 

CHELMSFORD 5.45 

Capla Spirit 6/1 may find this distance too far with the fast pace I expect to be applied in this race while Legende D’Art 6/1 may need further to show its best so both might be worth laying if of value price wise, there's only 2lbs between Stone Circle, Storm Melody and Mr Fayez so they could be each way chances but I will be hoping that SOYOUNIQUE 10/3 can set the pace here and lead all the way for a victory, it has good trainer 16% and jockey 19% stats which is usually a positive and a reproduction of its best rating from Lingfield this year it would win a shade cosily. 

Soyounique 10/3 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Legende D'Art +1pt, Capla Spirit +1pt

Total +1pt 

CHEPSTOW 6.10 

Not a bad looking class 5 race with one known front runner among the 10 runners, both Ruby Cottage 5/1 and Sweet Pursuit 10/1 may need this run for race fitness and worth laying if single figure prices especially the latter who has needed its 1st run after a break every time so far, there's 5 horses that have been in poor form in their recent races which narrows the field down but I expect those 5 will all be double figure prices, Some Nightmare 7/4 might go ok here and could make the frame but isn't an each way price, I will be splitting my money in this race between VAPE 5/2 who is my top rated but doesn't have the best trainer/jockey stats and the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks while TAWAAFOQ 13/2 is the one that could set the pace to this race, it has won before first time after coming back from a break and has been known to win before without giving any warning about coming back to form and the trainer does have a decent 19% strike rate at this course.

Vape 8/1 2nd -1pt 
Tawaafoq 16/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Ruby Cottage +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day 0pts

Sunday, 9 January 2022

6:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (10th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

HURAIZ 10/1 has run recently on this surface but at Southwell and its best speed figure for this course and distance would leave it short of winning this race and might be a better prospect when racing over further. 

ORNATE 18/1 is one of the three known front running types in this race but this nine year old seems to be on a downward spiral and has been running quite poorly lately but its best from 2020 would make it my 2nd top rated but on recent form it has to be an outsider. 

IDOAPOLOGISE 12/1 hasn't any form on this course and may be able to show its true worth when racing over a longer distance and I think this is one that I will be looking to lay especially if its as low as the tissue price forecast of five to one. 

OOH IS IT 9/2 is the second of the potential pacesetters in this race but time wise it would need to improve to win this race but this four year old may be capable of improving so its one I couldn't lay or back. 

ATLYAH 5/1 this one is my top rated on just 2021/22 course and distance speed figures and that figure is good enough for third top on my overall figures, it has good trainer, 17%, and jockey, 22% stats so maybe its expected to run a big race here. 

CHARMING KID 6/1 this one is a possible front runner but only when its allowed an easy lead and can set a slower pace than usual which I don't think will happen here and needs to improve time wise to feature in this race and could be worth laying if a single figure price. 

SHOW ME A SUNSET 9/2 has a relatively low speed figure rating for a class four race and i think this one is another that will be a better prospect when racing over a longer distance and has only average trainer/jockey stats so might be worth laying at the price. 

ROYDMOOR 5/1 is the third horse that I think could lead this race, it has a rating which is good enough for 2nd top spot on just 2021/22 ratings but its best figure from 2020 makes it my top rated and could therefore lead all the way. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 14/1 can be held up or track the leaders but it hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 and age may be catching up with this eight year old and I expect it will be a double figure price. 

ZAPPER CASS 16/1 has relatively slow times over this course and distance and I think that might be due to it looking as though a longer distance would see it in a better light and I expect it will be an outsider. 

SUMMARY: There is 4 horses that have been known to lead before although I doubt Charming Kid will be fast enough to lead in this race but I am hoping that ROYDMOOR 5/1 can lead and then prove too fast and strong for others that like to race at the fore and being my top rated using a 2020 figure it recorded at Newcastle but just in case the front runner battle too hard with each other and fade nearing the finish then ATLYAH 5/1 could be the one to prosper and it is my top rated on just recent, 2021/22, speed figures and has good trainer/jockey stats which makes me connections are expecting a big run from it and i will be backing them both in this race to cover the angles.

Roydmoor 11/2 3rd -1pt 
Atlyah 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -2pts

Friday, 24 September 2021

2:40 Haydock Racing Tips (25th September)

HAYDOCK 2.40 

WOW what a competitive looking class 2 dash, I can only see Premier Power as a possible lay bet in this race, Mountain Peak is one of two known front running types in this race and comes out 4th best on my figures so could run well and maybe even make the frame,Jawwaal is my 3rd top rated and only 2lbs below the pair who are my top rated, Mondammej is one of the joint top rated horses but drops to 2nd best when I take off the 5lb the apprentice claims riding COPPER KNIGHT 9/2 who is also the other known front runner and if getting to the front here it could be hard to catch. 

Copper Knight 9/2 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet: Premier Power +1pt 

Total 0pts 

HAYDOCK 3.15 

Another nice looking race and class 3 this time, I think the early pace will be set by Al Simmo but it would need to improve to hold on for the win, Call Me Ginger who has won its last 3 races comes out 3rd top on my figures and maybe the handicapper has caught up with it, there is only 2lbs between my top rated pair and I will be backing both of them, NEVER DARK 8/1 and SECOND COLLECTION 12/1 as to be honest I cannot split them and both look good value at their prices with there being just seven runners. 

Second Collection 16/1 4th -1pt 
Never Dark 8/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts

RIPON 3.30 

A field of 12 for this race with a couple of front runners of whom Machree may go best but I doubt it can hold on for the win and I might well lay the other possible leader, Raydmoor who might have been flattered when winning a slow run race last time out, James Watt, Nibras Again and Deputise could all go well but I will be splitting my stake between COLEY'S KOKO 9/2 who is my 2nd top rated but only 1lb below ATLYAH 7/1 in top spot, the former is usually held up for a late run while the latter likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely nearing the finish. 

Coley's Koko 7/1 Unp -1pt 
Atlyah 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Total -2pts

RIPON 4.05 

As usual with an eight runner race I hope they all take part so there is 3 places available for an each way bet, it is a good looking class 2 race where I cannot see anything that I could dismiss its chances and lay it, Bossipop may do best of the two known front runners in the race as it comes out 4th best on my figures and could even stay on well enough to sneak a palace especially if others falter, Thegreatestshowman is sitting in 3rd top spot but the trainer is 0-10 in the last 2 weeks, Manigordo is my 2nd best rated horse and is usually seen staying on at the finish over this distance and could make the frame but it hasn't been in good form lately, my money will be riding on BOWMAN 10/1 (EW) who recorded a fast time at Carlisle and a repeat would see it winning a touch cosily.

Bowman 10/1 8th -2pts

Total -2pts

RIPON 5.50 

Only 6 runners where the top pair, Nearly A Gonna and Ustath, look the likely pacesetters and the latter could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead and the former might have been flattered when it won 2 runs ago at Nottingham, Hurstwood comes out 2nd best using a time from way back in 2019, my money will be riding on SINGE ANGLAIS 13/8 who is from a stable in decent form in the last two weeks and it will be held up for a late run. 

Singe Anglais 9/4 1st +2.25pts

Total +2.25pts

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

A class 4 race, 10 runners and 2 known front running types equals a true run affair, I would look to lay Seas Of Elzaam who should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late to catch the leaders, Garth Rockett has a good time from 2020 which would give it a good chance of winning but the jockey booking, 0-18, makes me think it will be aimed at a future race, I did have TOUSSARAK 7/1 and NIGEL NOTT 5/1 level on my ratings but the former has a 3lb claiming apprentice on board and the latter has a 5lb claiming apprentice, so just 2lbs between them but as the latter is the one I think might set the early pace and could prove hard to catch but just in case I will back them both to cover the angles. 

Nigel Nott 5/1 4th -1pt 
Toussarak 7/1 UR -1pt 

Lay bet: Seas Of Elzaam +1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 8.30 

Only 7 runners but 3 of them are known as front runners and five of them are 3yo’s so my stakes are already going to be low, I think *Iesha may need further and may be worth laying despite the fact this race might be run to suit its racing style, I think JORVIK PRINCE 9/1 should lead and then prove hard to catch and if reproducing its best time from 2020 would hold on for the win but its time from 2021 would give TOPLIGHT 9/2 a chance to pick it up in the closing stages and I will be backing them both.

*NR

Jorvik Prince 9/1 2nd -1pt 
Toplight 5/1 6th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -6.75pts