Latest News -

 Group Horse - Subscribe for our 10 Dark Horses 

Wednesday 19 October 2022

4:15 Southwell Racing Tips (20th October)


Not a bad race for a class 6 affair with 12 runners and 3 possible pacesetters, both Chief Of Staff 7/2 and Cooperation 5/1 who like to front run could go well here and possibly do enough to make the frame but are not each way prices, Sovereign Slipper 13/2 might just need this run for fitness after nearly a year off so maybe worth laying. This is the kind of race where I lay 2 horses to cover the options, the improving 3yo ELDEYAAR 7/1 is another possible pacesetter and if getting to the front could prove very hard to catch being my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere while DARK SIDE THUNDER 11/2 is usually held up for a late run and is my top rated using just course and distance ratings so going with 2 bets seems the right way to go in this race. 

Dark Side Thunder 11/2 6th -1pt 
Eldeyaar 10/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Sovereign Slipper +1pt 

Total -1pt  


This 2nd division is another competitive race for the class, the early pace could well be set by Ahlawi 8/1 but it would need to improve time wise but if allowed an easy lead from stall 3 it could be dangerous but I doubt that will happen with a few horses that like to track the leaders it should ensure there's a good early gallop, Twilight Secret 5/1 has been in good form lately but its best form has come on the Polytrack surface so I will look to lay this one especially if its a short price which is forecast, I am going to take a punt in this race with what will hopefully be an outsider, CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 14/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, its been known to bounce back to form before without warning but did run quite well when finishing 3rd 2 runs ago and the trainer has a 19% win ratio here with their older horses and the jockey has a 2-7 record when riding for the stable and at the price has to put up as an each way punt. 

Chookie Dunedin 14/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts


A full house of 14 for this dash with 5 known front runners Ooh Is It 6/1 can go well from the fore in its races but would need to improve time wise to win this race and might be worth laying, as for the winner I think this dash might be won from the front but I cannot split 2 horses *GIOGIOBBO 12/1 (EW) who is my top rated on ratings recorded over this course and distance and has been known before to win when coming back from a break from racing and *TRUE HERO 25/1 (EW) who is also coming back after a break from racing and i'm hoping this one will be an each way price as it has run well before after a break and the jockey booking looks significant as he has a 44% win ratio on the stables older horse and a good 38% win ratio on all ages that hes ridden and such big prices I will have to go with each way wagers. 


Total 0pts


This is a tricky looking sprint, 11 taking part with 3 known front running types, Spangled Mac 6/1 is forecast to be the favourite but I think it might be better served over a longer distance so one I would lay if of value to do so, Strong Power 9/1 produces higher ratings on Polytrack so might be another one to lay, Aberama Gold 9/1 is capable of producing a good rating but hasn't been at that level so far this year but still could go well if repeating its previous best. May Sonic is a possible pacesetter but this doesn't appear to be its favoured surface, Tippy Toes another possible pacesetter hasn't any form on this surface but its best from Lingfield on the Polytrack surface would make it competitive here and could possibly make the frame, this race could be ideal for DUBAI STATION 15/2 who likes to race in midfield or be held up for a late run and its best rating, recorded this year, would see it back in the winners circle.

Dubai Station 17/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Spangled Mac +1pt (remember we don't lay horses over 9/1 sp) 

Total 0pts

Total on the day -3pts

No comments: