3:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th August)

SOUTHWELL 3.10 

5F Class-6 14-Runners

I can see 3 horses that might set the pace to this race and on this straight course the draw isn't too significant, 2 of the possible pacesetters are 3yo’s and would need to improve time wise to win this race but they are of an age when improvement can come without warning so never discount them but I will expect Mehmo 8/1 to set the pace and being my 3rd top rated it could at least do enough to make the frame and if allowed an easy lead it could be dangerous but I will as always stick with the proven, I cannot see anything to lay that I think will be a single figure price so I will stick with looking for the winner, Micks Spirit 14/1 is my 2nd top rated on overall figures but is actually my top rated on just 2023 ratings but it hasn't shown much in its last 5 races so would need to spring back to form to have a chance of winning this race. GOLDEN RAINBOW 20/1 (EW) comes out in 4th top spot using just 2023 ratings but has a rating from 2022 that would see it winning this race a shade cosily admittedly it hasnt been in great form this year but has been slow away or held up in most of those but if it gets away on terms here it could prove the stronger nearing the finish and is dropped in class to run in this race and will be carrying my money even though it does look to be the stables 2nd string and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Each way beat Golden Rainbow 20/1

Rainbow Gold 28/1 7th -2pts

Total on the day -2pts 

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

6F Class-6 Div1 14-Runners.

There is five 3yo’s in this race which always muddies the waters, Congress has the best form of the quintet but the time was relatively slow when it won over course and distance last time out and this looks a tougher race and once again its a race where I don't think I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay bet. Autumn Flight 12/1 is one of the two known front running types in this race and is my top rated on just 2023 course and distance ratings so could possibly win this race, The Waiting Game 11/10 won when I backed it last time out being backed down from an early 9/1 price but that was at Chelmsford on the Polytrack surface and it did win very convincingly that day leading all the way, its other victory also came over the same course and distance, so if taking to this surface it could quite easily complete its hattrick but I expect it will be a fairly short priced favourite so not really a value bet, if Eldeyaar 16/1 can reproduce its best rating from Wolverhampton last year it would be winning this race with a little bit too spare. I think the winner will come from this trio so maybe dutching them will be the way forward in this race. 

Dutch The Waiting Game 11/10 + Autumn Flight 12/1 + Eldeyaar 16/1 with a win bet and 2 each way bets. 

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

The Waiting Game 1st 11/10 +1.1pt 

Eldeyaar 18/1 2nd -1pt 

Autumn Flight 20/1 9th -1pt 

Total -0.9pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

6F Class-6 14-Runners 

Up to seven 3yo’s in this race it might normally be a race to tread very carefully in but from what they have shown so far one of them would have to improve to win this race. Firstly, I will look to lay Blackcurrent 8/1 if its a single price as it struggles to stay the distance in a true run race which it might get here with Tathmeen 6/1 my 3rd top rated likely to lead here, as i cannot see a natural looking front running type in this race but it has led before, and if allowed an easy lead it ought to at least do enough to make the frame and might be worth at least a bet, *Deputise 3/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but is only 2lbs higher than the 3rd top rated on 2023 ratings and only 1lb higher using 2022 ratings which shows how close things are at the top of my ratings, it would be folly to ignore Jumira Bridge 20/1 who is my top rated overall and it recorded that rating this year at Wolverhampton and is the type of horse that can spring back to from without warning so this looks to be another race where dutching 3 runners might be the solution to the race but maybe the lay should be the priority in this race.

Lay Blackcurrent 8/1

Dutch: Tathmeen 6/1 + Jumira Bridge 20/1 with 2 win bets and an each way bet.

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

Jumira Bridge 14/1 9th -1pt 

Tathmeen 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Blackcurrent +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -1.9pts

3:40 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (11th July)

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.40 

5F Class-6 11-Runners Their is only 3lbs between my top 5 ratings in this race, the two 3yo’s Harry With Style and Sabah Al Ward both race as though a longer distance would suit them better and with only 1 known front running type it might not have a fast early pace so the race might not be run to suit them. Spanish Agent also stays on at the finish over this distance but is my 5th top rated, Munificent is my top rated and capable of winning this race and won 2 runs ago but isn't a consistent sort and can be slow away which can hamper its chances, Fai Fai is my 2nd top rated and can be held up or track the leaders so could be worth an each way interest, Cuban Grey is my joint 3rd top rated and this 3yo likes to track the leaders and could be an improving horse but i am hoping that JARVIS 20/1 (EW) can from the plum stall 1 draw get to the front and with control of the rails lead all the way for victory and as usual at that sort of price it has to be an each way punt. 

Jarvis 20/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.50 

6F Class-6 Div1 13-Runners This 1st division is very hard to analyse to a confident conclusion, *Magic Gem 9/2 and Flagman 15/2 both might need further to show their best form and will be possible lays if of value to do so. I expect the early pace to come from Fantasy Navigator and or Dodgy Bob but both are outside my top 4 ratings so may not be able to hold on for the win but one could make the frame if allowed an easy lead. The 3yo Struck Gold is my 3rd top rated and could be an improving type so might be worth an each way interest, YAAHOBBY 9/2 and JUMIRA BRIDGE 14/1 (EW) are my top and 2nd top rated but neither are what you would call consistent but either of them could win this race if putting their best hoof forwards so I will be backing both, with one win bet and one each way bet. of them hoping that at least one of them does their best here. 

*NR

Yaahobby 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Jumira Bridge 14/1 6th -2pts 

Lay bet: Flagman +1pt 

Total -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.25 

6F Class-6 Div2 13-Runners I can find 3 known front runners in this division and they are all in my top 5 ratings for this race, Clownsman 9/2 is still a maiden after 9 races and seems to find 5 furlongs too short and 6 furlongs too far and its stamina will be severely tested in this race and might be worth laying while the top weight Catesby will need to improve time wise to win this race so maybe another to lay if a short enough price. Viewfromthestars in stall 10 and Peachey Carenhan in stall 4 are my 5th and 4th top rated horses either could make the frame but would need others to falter to win this race. Bungle Bay likes to track the leaders and is my 3rd top rated while the 2nd top rated Admirable lad usually deploys the same racing tactics but my money will be riding on the stall 9 drawn horse ELDEYAAR 20/1 (EW) and if this one gets to the front it ought to prove very hard to catch and at the price has to be an each way punt. 

Eldeyaar 20/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bets: Clownsman +1pt, Catesby +1pt

Total 0pts

Total on the day -4pts

2:05 Southwell Racing Tips (8th May)

SOUTHWELL 2.05 

Just 7 runners for this class 6 dash over the straight 5 furlong course on the Tapeta surface where the early pace might be set by Dapper Man 2/1 and/or Thegreatestshowman 11/1 but I doubt that either of them can hold on for the win, I actually doubt they will make the frame unless one of them is allowed an easy lead but I would look to lay both of them if of value to lay, Show Me A Sunset will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race as it would need to improve time wise to even make the frame but very often when a fancied horse cannot win the race it stops being ridden out and something unexpected then makes the frame. I've got Primo and Apache Star as my joint 3rd top rated horses and the former might be better suited to a longer distance race. Snow Berry who usually likes to track the leaders is my 2nd top rated horse so could go well here but if THE TRON 8/1 can reproduce its best rating recorded over this course and distance four runs ago it would win this race a shade cosily. 

The Tron 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: The Dapper Man -2pts

Total -3pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.40 

A field of 9 for this class 6 dash with a couple of known front running types, Another Angel 5/4 is one of them but in this race it only comes out in 3rd top spot but did win very easily just the other day so cannot be ignored but I wouldn't back it at such a short price as I think it represents poor value. I'm not sure if the drop in trip will suit Stallone 13/2 but has faded over 6 furlongs so it might suit it but it could also get outpaced here so not sure whether I would lay it or not, I will be hoping that ROCKLEY POINT 9/1 (EW) can either lead or at least pester Another Angel for the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it might be best to have an each way bet. 

Rockley Point 9/1 3rd +1.8pts

Total +0.8pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.45 

A full complement of 14 for this class 6 sprint where I can see 3 natural front running types and one other that can lead but doesn't need to so it should be a fast early pace, I'm not sure if there is anything at a value price to lay in this race, I have 5 or more marked down as having virtually no chance but I expect they will all be double figure priced horses. Hilary's Boy is my 4th top rated but hasn't been in good form lately which is enough to put me off siding with this one, I've got BAYRAAT 8/1 (EW) marked down as my top rated but the trainer has had 33 runners over the last 231 days without having a winner which is a little off-putting and I could confidently back it as a sole selection, my 2nd top rated horse is TATHMEEN 10/1 (EW) and this horse is more than capable of winning a race like this one and this is the horse that I said could lead but doesn't need to to win a race so I was going to back the 2 selections but then I noticed my 3rd top rated ELDEYAAR 20/1 (EW) is from the same stable and this is one of the more natural front running types and when i checked the jockey stats I saw that the jockey Ray Dawson has had three rides for the stable and has won on two of them so I couldn't back the stables other runner without also backing this one so I will be having an each way bet on all 3 of them at the prices available. 

Tathmeen 12/1 6th -2pts

Bayraat 11/1 8th -2pt 

Eldyaar 20/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -6pts 

Total on the day -8.2pts

4:15 Southwell Racing Tips (20th October)

SOUTHWELL 2.30 Div I

Not a bad race for a class 6 affair with 12 runners and 3 possible pacesetters, both Chief Of Staff 7/2 and Cooperation 5/1 who like to front run could go well here and possibly do enough to make the frame but are not each way prices, Sovereign Slipper 13/2 might just need this run for fitness after nearly a year off so maybe worth laying. This is the kind of race where I lay 2 horses to cover the options, the improving 3yo ELDEYAAR 7/1 is another possible pacesetter and if getting to the front could prove very hard to catch being my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere while DARK SIDE THUNDER 11/2 is usually held up for a late run and is my top rated using just course and distance ratings so going with 2 bets seems the right way to go in this race. 

Dark Side Thunder 11/2 6th -1pt 

Eldeyaar 10/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Sovereign Slipper +1pt 

Total -1pt  

SOUTHWELL 3.05 Div II

This 2nd division is another competitive race for the class, the early pace could well be set by Ahlawi 8/1 but it would need to improve time wise but if allowed an easy lead from stall 3 it could be dangerous but I doubt that will happen with a few horses that like to track the leaders it should ensure there's a good early gallop, Twilight Secret 5/1 has been in good form lately but its best form has come on the Polytrack surface so I will look to lay this one especially if its a short price which is forecast, I am going to take a punt in this race with what will hopefully be an outsider, CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 14/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, its been known to bounce back to form before without warning but did run quite well when finishing 3rd 2 runs ago and the trainer has a 19% win ratio here with their older horses and the jockey has a 2-7 record when riding for the stable and at the price has to put up as an each way punt. 

Chookie Dunedin 14/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 4.15 

A full house of 14 for this dash with 5 known front runners Ooh Is It 6/1 can go well from the fore in its races but would need to improve time wise to win this race and might be worth laying, as for the winner I think this dash might be won from the front but I cannot split 2 horses *GIOGIOBBO 12/1 (EW) who is my top rated on ratings recorded over this course and distance and has been known before to win when coming back from a break from racing and *TRUE HERO 25/1 (EW) who is also coming back after a break from racing and i'm hoping this one will be an each way price as it has run well before after a break and the jockey booking looks significant as he has a 44% win ratio on the stables older horse and a good 38% win ratio on all ages that hes ridden and such big prices I will have to go with each way wagers. 

*NR 

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 

This is a tricky looking sprint, 11 taking part with 3 known front running types, Spangled Mac 6/1 is forecast to be the favourite but I think it might be better served over a longer distance so one I would lay if of value to do so, Strong Power 9/1 produces higher ratings on Polytrack so might be another one to lay, Aberama Gold 9/1 is capable of producing a good rating but hasn't been at that level so far this year but still could go well if repeating its previous best. May Sonic is a possible pacesetter but this doesn't appear to be its favoured surface, Tippy Toes another possible pacesetter hasn't any form on this surface but its best from Lingfield on the Polytrack surface would make it competitive here and could possibly make the frame, this race could be ideal for DUBAI STATION 15/2 who likes to race in midfield or be held up for a late run and its best rating, recorded this year, would see it back in the winners circle.

Dubai Station 17/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Spangled Mac +1pt (remember we don't lay horses over 9/1 sp) 

Total 0pts

Total on the day -3pts