Latest News -

 Group Horse - Subscribe for our 10 Dark Horses 

Monday 19 December 2022

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (20th December)


A 5 furlong class 5 dash with 10 runners and half, 5, of them have been known to lead before and my top 3 ratings are all front running types. I will look to lay Yimou 15/2 as its a better horse over a longer distance, Twilight Madness stall 5, is going for the hattrick here and is my 3rd top rated horse using just course and distance ratings, Never Dark in stall 2 comes out in 2nd top spot but if JEAN'S MAITE 5/1 can reproduce its last rating when leading all the way last time out then it would follow up here and has been found a good opportunity to do just that. 

Jean's Maite 4/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt


As to be expected not a great class 6 sprint but there is a couple of front runners which always helps, Breach 7/1 who is a hold up type of horse is out in stall 11 so it will need a degree of luck when coming to challenge and if its a single figure price, as forecast on the tissue prices, then I would look to lay it. I'm hoping that PORTELET BAY 20/1 who is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere can lead here and if doing so it ought to be hard to catch, its form has as usual been erratic but its a horse that can win without any prior indication which also applies to THE COLA KID 25/1 and this one is my top rated on course and distance ratings and at the prices I have to go with 2 each way bets. 

The Cola Kid 25/1 6th -1pt 
Portelet Bay 40/1 8th -1pt 

Total -2pts


A poor turnout of just 7 runners for this class 4 sprint, Westmorlan 2/1 seems better over shorter distances and Barney's Boy 9/1 seems better on the Polytrack surface so will look to lay both of them, Spartan Fighter 25/1 could set the pace but has been in poor form lately but if allowed an easy lead it could go well but i think its in the race to help the chances of its stablemate BELLAGIO MAN 4/1 who seems to like a fast pace to aim at but i will be backing both stablemates but the former mainly as a covering bet and a small profit if it can hang on for the win. 

Bellagio Man 41 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Westorian 7/2 -3.5pts, Barney's Boy +1pt

Total -3.5pts


In this 2nd division we once again have 2 known front running types, as for any lays I an looking at both Solar Prophet 4/1 and Giselles Izzy 7/2 who both race as though a longer distance would suit them better so they should be staying on at the finish but hopefully too late to win this race. Tathmeen is my 2nd top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere while Hilary's Boy is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings so either could run well. Top rated on course and distance times is DELLA MARE 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and has the prime stall 1 draw so could stay on strong nearing the finish while the front running LANCASHIRE LIFE 22/1 is my top rated from other Tapeta ratings, if getting to the front it could lead all the way and I will back the 2 horses that come top in my 2 lists the former with a win bet and an each way bet on the double figure priced horde. 

Della Mare 6/1 -1pt 
Lancashire Life 80/1 -1pt 

Lay bets Gislles Izzy -8pts, Solar Prophet +1pt

Total -9pts


Another 7 runner race but this time there is a couple of front runners amongst them and of the pair Ornate could do best as its my 3rd top rated but this 9yo does seem to be on the decline but I expect it will be an outsider in this race. I will look to lay Motawaazy 11/2 who is 0-5 on an artificial surface and races as though further would suit it better, Indian Sounds will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win, BENEFICIARY 9/4 is my top rated on Southwell ratings and also on ratings from either here or Wolverhampton and can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders and in a small field like this I would hope it races close to the front to prevent anything getting first run on it and then it might not be able to catch it but the jockey has a decent strike rate for the stable so lets hope he adds to it here.

Beneficiary 9/4 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day - 16.5pts

No comments: