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Wednesday, 27 January 2021

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th January)


When I write these blogs I hope you don't just look at the selections in capital letters or the lays in brackets and underlined because you could be missing things that you could use to your advantage. I write these blogs two days before the race and I post the night before and things can change with non-runners and how the betting changes things so my ramblings might help your decision making. 

SOUTHWELL 1.10 

Just 8 runners with 3 known front running types who are drawn in the 3 inside stalls and its a race where i will have to back a front runner and one coming from off the pace just in case they go off too fast and tire nearing the finish,I think Alexej will be at the fore of the betting and I think mainly because its from the powerful stable of J.Gosden and the jockey R.Havlin but its runs from 2020 were all over further that the 6 furlongs here and stayed on at the finish so I'm surprised its dropped down in trip, obviously it could be a very superior horse compared to the rest and win despite it not being ideal conditions but I will lay it if a short price, I am hoping that ZYLAN 10/3 can get to the front and if doing so it could prove hard to catch being my 2nd top rated but I do have SHALLOW HAL 10/1 rated just 3lbs higher so may need a trouble free run to pick up the pacesetters hence the 2 bets, both have decent trainer stats and have good jockeys stats in fact their stats are identical and it looks as though both stables are expecting to win. 

Shallow Hal 10/1 1st (+10pts) (Betfair SP 6.86) 
Zylan 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Total: +9pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

Down to 6 runners for this race but with 2 known front runners it should be a true run affair but both of the pacesetters would need to improve time wise to win this race, Ornate one of them has a good 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 5 c/d runs and the other King Of Stars has won twice from just 4 previous c/d runs, Giogiobbo may stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win the race, Diamond Dougal hasn't any course form but could take to this surface and be a hidden danger, Tawny Port is my 2nd top rated using a 2019 time but it hasn't any recent c/d form to work with, my money will be riding on THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 4/1 who is well handicapped and will be winning again soon and has every chance to do so here. 

Thegreatestshowman 4/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

Up to 9 for this race but only one front running type in the shape of Gossip who is dangerous if allowed to set its own slightly slower pace and has won 2 of its 4 previous c/d races but there is a few who like to track or press the leader so maybe wont be able to pinch the race from the front, Marwari has a good time from Newastle but I'm not sure this surface will suit it, Pearl Of Qatar has good trainer/jockey stats and will be staying on at the finish but could struggle if its a slow run affair and if it wasn't for the good trainer/jockey stats i would lay it and if its a short price i might still lay it, the jockey has a 25% win ratio for the stable but it still means hes beaten in 3 out of every 4 races, i will be siding with ARZAAK 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and has won 3, placed 5 from 13 c/d runs so likes the course. 

Arzaak 12/1 8th (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

I was going to leave this class 6 stakes race well alone and I will only bet in the race if my selection is a double figure price, that horse is STAR CRACKER 10/1 who can spring back to form without warning and might be worth having a small risky each way bet if its of value

Star Cracker 11/1 3rd +1.75pts

Total on the day: +8.75pts

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