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Friday, 16 April 2021

12:10 Thirsk Racing Tips (17th April)

THIRSK 12.10 

A competitive class 6 race with 14 runners and only one known front runner in the shape of Carlovian but its best isn't quite good enough to hold on for the win and it doesn't really like really good to firm going, Highland Acclaim 6/1 is a 10yo who is capable of winning from out of the blue with no prior warning so is always a danger to be wary of but at the price it isn't worth doing each way, there is quite a few i could lay but that's depending on the betting, Hijacked could go well if fully wound up after a 172 day break but usually needs a run for fitness so maybe one to lay if a shortish price, Thrilla In Manilla doesn't really like good to firm going, I will be having a small wager on EPIEUS who comes out 3rd top on recent distance times(2020/21) while it best from 2019 would take it to top spot and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Epieus 12/1 1/2 Point Each Way 7th -2pts
Highjacked 3/1 2 Points Lay +1pt
Mo Henry 9/1 2 Points Lay +2pt
Billy Dylan 6/1 1 Point Lay +1pt

Total +2pts

THIRSK 12.40 Div I

This is a dire race and this division is poor, its got a lot of either lightly raced sorts or others that are well out of form and its impossible to back most of the field, Lucky Beggar and Kolossus have shown some snippets of form, the former comes out 2nd best overall if i use a time from 2019, the latter comes out 3rd best overall and it is one of only two known front running types in the race and could go well from the front but it usually needs at least one run after a break for fitness, I will pin my hopes on the top weighted WAR OF CLANS 14/1 who has won before after a break plus this is a drop in class as it was contesting class four races last year so has to be worth an each way wager. 

War Of Clans 14/1 ½ Point Each Way 7th -2pts 
Foad 6/1 1 Point Lay +1pt
Sheepscar Lad 5/1 2 Points Lay  +2pts 
Chickenfortea 9/1 2 Points Lay +2pts
Kodimoor 9/1 3 Points Lay +3pts

Total +6pts

THIRSK 1.10 Div II 

Class 5 and no better, there's no known pacesetters in this race which always muddies the waters, Ghathanfar won last time out on g/f ground in a slow time so that might have flattered it plus i think it would be better over further, Lady Nectar and Jill Rose may need this run for fitness, it may be too far for Shoot To Kill unless its filled out during the winter, Freedom Flyer could go well if able to reproduce its best time from Wolverhampton to grass, Dick Datchery hasn't shown much in its latest runs but has a time from Ayr last year that makes it my 2nd top rated, I will have a small wager on FLAVIUS TITUS 9/1 who is top rated on a time recorded at Newmarket last year and usually runs on at the finish and has won before after a break from racing. 

Flavius Titus 9/1 1 Point Win -1pt
Ghathanfar 2/1 2 Points Lay +2pts
Lady Nectar 8/1 2 Points Lay -16pts
Shoot To Kill 9/1 3 Points Lay +3pts

Total -12pts

BRIGHTON 4.20 

Only 7 runners but still a competitive little race, I can only see one natural front running sort in the race and being my top rated it should be a true run affair. I will look to lay Wiley Post if of value, the 2 I expect will be the outsiders, Ascot Jungle and Mykindofsunshine, would need to improve to win this race, Shamshon my 4th top rated is forecast to be favourite but hasn't won on turf since 2019, Zulu Zander in 3rd top spot ha an off-putting jockey record of 0-6 while the 2nd top rated Katherine Place has an even worse jockey record with it being 0-19, the top weight and my top rated is HAVEONEYERSELF 3/1 who I think/hope can lead all the way in this race and get back to winning ways. 

Haveoneyerself 3/1 2 Points Win -2pts
Wiley Post 7/2 2 Points Lay +2pts

Total 0pts

BRIGHTON 5.30 

Another seven runner race with 4 of the runners being 4yo’s, Vape and/or Spreadsheet could set the pace but both would need to improve time wise to hold on for the win, Recall has had one run on good ground over this distance but the time was too slow to register on my graphs, the two older horses have bits of form that makes Street Parade my 4th top rated and Real Estate my 2nd top rated, the 4yo Little Brown Trout has a time from Lingfield that makes it my 3rd top rated horse in this race but top rated is the top weight STRONG POWER 2/1 and if able to reproduce its best time from Leicester last year it would see it winning this race a shade cosily. 

Strong Power 2/1 2 Points Win 4th -2pts 

Total -2pts

Total on the day -6pts

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