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Sunday 18 July 2021

1:35 Ayr Racing Tips (19th July)

AYR 1.35 

A race with 8 runners so lets hope they all run, I cannot find a guaranteed pacesetter amongst them which is something that always puts me on the back foot and any bets the stakes are kept on the low side, Global Humor is my 3rd top rated using a time recorded at Hamilton in 2020, in 2nd top spot is Amazing Alba who might like this race as it can struggle to stay this far if there's a fast early pace but I will stick with backing my top rated STRONSAY 11/4 who can run in midfield or track the leaders and hopefully it can cover any moves whatever way this race is run and a repeat of its time from Hamilton this year would see it winning it a shade cosily. 

Stronsay 100/30 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt


A big field of 17 for this race and a couple of front runners to make sure there's a fast early pace, I'm not sure if there's anything of value to be worth laying, as for the winner I have 5 of them with positive marks against their names and have some chance of winning this race but I will discard two of them but I cannot narrow it down any further and I will go with dutching the three remaining horses, DARK SHOT 8/1 is the one that I think will lead in this race and comes out top rated using a time from Leicester last year that might be a little bit higher than it should be but with a soft lead it could be very dangerous, VAN GERWEN 10/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times which it recorded at Ripon and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, *NOT ON YOUR NELLIE 7/1 is 2nd top rated on just 2021 times and also 2nd top on overall figures using a time from 2020 and usually is held up or races in midfield and then stay on at the business end of the race. 


Dark Shot 8/1 2nd -1pt 
Van Gerwin 22/1 Unp -1pt

Total -2pts


There is 2 known front running types in this race so it should be a true run affair, I will look to lay Huraiz and Lihou if they are a single figure price as they might prefer a longer distance to shine while I would also lay Firepower 13/2 as its been in poor form lately that is if they are single figure prices, Rose Hip would be top rated using a time from Leicester last year but the time of that race is starting to look like a bit of a fluke time, Second Collection would be another contender using its best time from 2020 over this course and distance, the early pace may well be set by Glamorous Anna who recorded its best time at Newbury last year but I will be backing the top weight A SURE WELCOME 3/1 who usually finishes fast over this distance and this ones best time was recorded this year over this course and distance which is always a bonus.

A Sure Welcome 9/2 7th -1pt

Lay bets Lihou +1pt, Huraiz +1pt

Total on the day -2pts

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