A 10 runner race where only 5 of them have gone fast enough to register on my figures and 4 of them have recorded ratings for this year, I will start with Firenze Rosa 5/2 who on the early tissue prices is forecast to be the nine to four favourite and I think is solely down to it finishing 2nd last time out but that was on soft ground and I am concerned whether it will like this relatively fast artificial surface plus the trainer is 0-5 for the last 2 weeks and its 28 runners and 51 days since the stable last had a winner so one i will definitely be laying it, Lady Florence 11/4 is 3rd top on just 2021 times and 3rd top overall using its faster time from 2020, the top two ratings flip flop, depending how you look at things as they are both being ridden by 3lb claiming apprentices, ARZAAK 6/1 is top rated on just 2021 times and rated 3lbs higher than GREEN DOOR 10/1 (EW), so they could both be rated the same, who would have eaten this lot for breakfast a few years back but hasn't shown much on recent runs and this will only be its 2nd race of the year, at least its giving weight to theoretically weaker horses and could possibly lead all the way but with them being so close on my speed figures I will be backing them both to cover the angles, maybe two each way bets is the best way forward, at the prices maybe one win bet and one each way wager.
Arzaak 17/2 4th -1pts
Green Door 10/1 9th -2pts
Total -3pts
CHELMSFORD 7.00
The 3yo Maajdah is forecast to be a fairly hot favourite, 13/8, on the early tissue prices and I have to admit it did run to a high rating when it won last time out at Wolverhampton but this is a completely different kind of surface and would need to adapt but it will also need to improve about 7lbs if others run to their best so for those reasons I would definitely look to lay it at such a short price, Mejthaam11/2 is forecast to be the 2nd favourite and I can find negatives against this one as well, it won over this distance on turf when setting a slow pace but wont be allowed an easy lead in this race and I think it might get outpaced early doors in this race, it will or should be running on at the distance but this one also needs to improve time wise to win this race, there is also two more 3yo’s, Jojo Rabbit 12/1 and Miss Nay Never 9/1, who also like to lead, that makes a total of 6 of the 11 runners prefer to lead so maybe they will set the race up something coming from off the pace so I will be backing INVINCIBLE LARNE 15/2 (EW) who is 2 wins and 7 places from its 14 AW races and if it reproduces its best time from 2020 it will catch them in the closing stages of this race and if an each way price then all the better.
Invincible Larne 16/1 3rd +2.2pts
Lay bet: Maajdah +1pt
Total +3.2pts
CHELMSFORD 8.00
I hope all 8 runners take part so there's 3 places if I find an each way bet, the 3yo Tawaazon 9/2 looks as though it is better over a shorter trip and maybe worth laying especially at the price, there's two known front running types but I doubt whether Rebel Redemption 6/1 is fast enough to lead and even if it could I doubt it would stay there for the victory, the 3yo Another Dawn 6/4 comes out 2nd top but that figure was recorded on a different surface at Wolverhampton but if taking to this surface it could have every chance, my money will be riding on the other pacemaker in the shape of BERRTIE 8/1 (EW) and this one has the plum draw in stall 1 and if getting to the front this 3yo could lead all the way and get back to winning ways.
Berrtie 12/1 4th -2pts
Total -2pts
CHELMSFORD 8.30
This Is a class 6 race but even for the class its quite poor and any stakes will have to be kept low, I doubt there will be anything of value to lay so it looks like small win bet/s, Twice As Likely 5/1 comes out 4th top rated on my overall figures and 2nd top on just 2021 times, Our Man In Havana 12/1 comes out 3rd best using a 2020 speed figure but it is the only one that has been known to lead before but that is only when nothing else wants to lead but could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, top rated on just 2021 times is IRISH TIMES 7/1 and usually tracks the leaders and then run on at the finish but I do have VINCENZO COCCOTTI 7/1 rated higher using a time from last year and would be my sole bet if it had been in better form this year and the trainer had their last winner 27 days ago which doesn't inspire me and I will go with 2 small win bets.
Vincenzo Coccotti 7/1 +7pts + EX £31.20
Irish Times 7/1 2nd -1pt
Total +6pts
Total on the day +4.8pts
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