Just 7 runners for this class 6 dash over the straight 5 furlong course on the Tapeta surface where the early pace might be set by Dapper Man 2/1 and/or Thegreatestshowman 11/1 but I doubt that either of them can hold on for the win, I actually doubt they will make the frame unless one of them is allowed an easy lead but I would look to lay both of them if of value to lay, Show Me A Sunset will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race as it would need to improve time wise to even make the frame but very often when a fancied horse cannot win the race it stops being ridden out and something unexpected then makes the frame. I've got Primo and Apache Star as my joint 3rd top rated horses and the former might be better suited to a longer distance race. Snow Berry who usually likes to track the leaders is my 2nd top rated horse so could go well here but if THE TRON 8/1 can reproduce its best rating recorded over this course and distance four runs ago it would win this race a shade cosily.
The Tron 8/1 2nd -1pt
Lay bets: The Dapper Man -2pts
Total -3pts
NEWCASTLE 7.40
A field of 9 for this class 6 dash with a couple of known front running types, Another Angel 5/4 is one of them but in this race it only comes out in 3rd top spot but did win very easily just the other day so cannot be ignored but I wouldn't back it at such a short price as I think it represents poor value. I'm not sure if the drop in trip will suit Stallone 13/2 but has faded over 6 furlongs so it might suit it but it could also get outpaced here so not sure whether I would lay it or not, I will be hoping that ROCKLEY POINT 9/1 (EW) can either lead or at least pester Another Angel for the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it might be best to have an each way bet.
Rockley Point 9/1 3rd +1.8pts
Total +0.8pts
NEWCASTLE 8.45
A full complement of 14 for this class 6 sprint where I can see 3 natural front running types and one other that can lead but doesn't need to so it should be a fast early pace, I'm not sure if there is anything at a value price to lay in this race, I have 5 or more marked down as having virtually no chance but I expect they will all be double figure priced horses. Hilary's Boy is my 4th top rated but hasn't been in good form lately which is enough to put me off siding with this one, I've got BAYRAAT 8/1 (EW) marked down as my top rated but the trainer has had 33 runners over the last 231 days without having a winner which is a little off-putting and I could confidently back it as a sole selection, my 2nd top rated horse is TATHMEEN 10/1 (EW) and this horse is more than capable of winning a race like this one and this is the horse that I said could lead but doesn't need to to win a race so I was going to back the 2 selections but then I noticed my 3rd top rated ELDEYAAR 20/1 (EW) is from the same stable and this is one of the more natural front running types and when i checked the jockey stats I saw that the jockey Ray Dawson has had three rides for the stable and has won on two of them so I couldn't back the stables other runner without also backing this one so I will be having an each way bet on all 3 of them at the prices available.
Tathmeen 12/1 6th -2pts
Bayraat 11/1 8th -2pt
Eldyaar 20/1 Unp -2pts
Total -6pts
Total on the day -8.2pts
No comments:
Post a Comment