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Friday 5 May 2023

2:00 Thirsk Racing Tips (6th May)

THIRSK 2.00 

A class 4 sprint with 16 runners but just 1 known front runner in the shape of Cooperation 10/1 coming out of stall 8 and if heads across to the rails those drawn higher could get squeezed out but i doubt it can lead all the way, As If By Chance 7/1 produces high ratings but in lower class races than this one. Run This Way hasn't been in good form lately but is capable on its day, Bay Breeze will be to the fore in the betting after winning last time out on soft ground and could run well again here and could follow up with another win, it's really a hard race to analyse and it looks competitive for a class 4 race but I am going to take a punt on one I think will be an outsider in this race and that is ABOLISH 12/1 (EW) who is often held up for a late run but here its drawn in stall 7 so it could get a good tow across towards the rails but the horse drawn just inside of it and therefore gain a good position from which to attack nearing the finish and I think/hope it will be an each way price. 

Abolish 25/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts 


I must be mad trying to analyse a 23 runner class 2 sprint where they could run as 1 group or split into 2 or possibly 3 groups and on this course when that happens its hard to predict which side will prove to have the faster going. One that could set the pace to the race is Equiano Springs 40/1 who is drawn in stall 17 and could be dangerous if the better ground favours those drawn high but the betting says its not really fancied, I doubt many will be a single figure price in this race but I am going to hope that those drawn low have just as much or even better chance of winning as I will be backing TANAMAWWY 7/1 who finished 2nd in a race 15 days ago so is in good form, it is also my top rated while the trainer has a 21% win ratio on this course with their older horses and the jockey has an overall strike-rate of 21% for the stable it moves up to 28% on the stables older horses. 

Tanamawwy 7/1 Unp -1pt

Total -1pt


Another big field but this time 17 for a Group 3 dash where 9 of the runners have been known to lead before, *Mountain Peak and Korker would be my 2 top rated horses using a class 2 sprint at Haydock last year both may need this run for fitness and I doubt they are up to winning at this level, I doubt there will be many at a single figure price so I doubt I can find a value lay for the race. Manaccan is a front running type drawn in stall 1 so if the low numbers have an advantage it could go well and has the legend Frankie Dettori riding it but this one might need this for fitness and has to prove itself at this level but has won in Listed class and a Group 3 win in Ireland on the All-Weather surface at Dundalk. My money will be riding on RAASEL 12/1 (EW) who looks capable of winning at this level but the trainers record of 1-29 at this course is a bit off-putting but the stable have switched back to James Doyle as their jockey and he has a 31% win ratio for the stable and at the price has to be given as an each way wager. 


Raasel 12/1 4th -2pts 

Total -2pts


A field of 9 for this class 3 sprint with a couple of known front running types one of them is Aberama Gold 5/1 who comes out 5th top on my figures but has poorish trainer/jockey stats so might be worth laying, Woven 14/1 hasn't won a race since 2020 which doesn't inspire confidence and it will most likely need this run for fitness so I will look to lay this one but not at that price, Treacherous 8/1 is capable of good ratings but is another that hasn't won since 2020 but it could run well here but well enough to win I'm not sure one way or the other, Fast And Furious 7/2 is another that looks likely to need this run for fitness, so there is 4 that I could lay for one reason or another but they all have decent speed ratings but I will be backing DANZAN 7/1 who is the other known front running type in the race and as this one had a run just under a month ago i hope that got it back to full fitness and it can lead all the way.

Danzan 15/2 4th -1pt

Lay bets: Woven -3.5pts, Aberama Gold +1pt 

Total -3.5pts

Total on the day -8.5pts

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