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Monday 28 August 2023

3:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th August)


5F Class-6 14-Runners

I can see 3 horses that might set the pace to this race and on this straight course the draw isn't too significant, 2 of the possible pacesetters are 3yo’s and would need to improve time wise to win this race but they are of an age when improvement can come without warning so never discount them but I will expect Mehmo 8/1 to set the pace and being my 3rd top rated it could at least do enough to make the frame and if allowed an easy lead it could be dangerous but I will as always stick with the proven, I cannot see anything to lay that I think will be a single figure price so I will stick with looking for the winner, Micks Spirit 14/1 is my 2nd top rated on overall figures but is actually my top rated on just 2023 ratings but it hasn't shown much in its last 5 races so would need to spring back to form to have a chance of winning this race. GOLDEN RAINBOW 20/1 (EW) comes out in 4th top spot using just 2023 ratings but has a rating from 2022 that would see it winning this race a shade cosily admittedly it hasnt been in great form this year but has been slow away or held up in most of those but if it gets away on terms here it could prove the stronger nearing the finish and is dropped in class to run in this race and will be carrying my money even though it does look to be the stables 2nd string and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Each way beat Golden Rainbow 20/1

Rainbow Gold 28/1 7th -2pts

Total on the day -2pts 


6F Class-6 Div1 14-Runners.

There is five 3yo’s in this race which always muddies the waters, Congress has the best form of the quintet but the time was relatively slow when it won over course and distance last time out and this looks a tougher race and once again its a race where I don't think I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay bet. Autumn Flight 12/1 is one of the two known front running types in this race and is my top rated on just 2023 course and distance ratings so could possibly win this race, The Waiting Game 11/10 won when I backed it last time out being backed down from an early 9/1 price but that was at Chelmsford on the Polytrack surface and it did win very convincingly that day leading all the way, its other victory also came over the same course and distance, so if taking to this surface it could quite easily complete its hattrick but I expect it will be a fairly short priced favourite so not really a value bet, if Eldeyaar 16/1 can reproduce its best rating from Wolverhampton last year it would be winning this race with a little bit too spare. I think the winner will come from this trio so maybe dutching them will be the way forward in this race. 

Dutch The Waiting Game 11/10 + Autumn Flight 12/1 + Eldeyaar 16/1 with a win bet and 2 each way bets. 

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

The Waiting Game 1st 11/10 +1.1pt 
Eldeyaar 18/1 2nd -1pt 
Autumn Flight 20/1 9th -1pt 

Total -0.9pts


6F Class-6 14-Runners 

Up to seven 3yo’s in this race it might normally be a race to tread very carefully in but from what they have shown so far one of them would have to improve to win this race. Firstly, I will look to lay Blackcurrent 8/1 if its a single price as it struggles to stay the distance in a true run race which it might get here with Tathmeen 6/1 my 3rd top rated likely to lead here, as i cannot see a natural looking front running type in this race but it has led before, and if allowed an easy lead it ought to at least do enough to make the frame and might be worth at least a bet, *Deputise 3/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but is only 2lbs higher than the 3rd top rated on 2023 ratings and only 1lb higher using 2022 ratings which shows how close things are at the top of my ratings, it would be folly to ignore Jumira Bridge 20/1 who is my top rated overall and it recorded that rating this year at Wolverhampton and is the type of horse that can spring back to from without warning so this looks to be another race where dutching 3 runners might be the solution to the race but maybe the lay should be the priority in this race.

Lay Blackcurrent 8/1

Dutch: Tathmeen 6/1 + Jumira Bridge 20/1 with 2 win bets and an each way bet.

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

Jumira Bridge 14/1 9th -1pt 
Tathmeen 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Blackcurrent +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -1.9pts

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