4:40 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March)

SOUTHWELL 4.40 

The surface at Southwell is going to be replaced with Tapeta in the spring/summer and how slow it is running at the moment the sooner the better, in fact I am very dubious about betting here but hopefully I've found a nugget in this race. Only eight runners with half of them being known to lead before so it should be a true run affair, Passional 13/8 will I think be the favourite, its two previous runs over this course and distance have only produced slow times but that might be down to the surface so it cannot be discounted, A Go Go 7/1 has a fast time from Lingfield and likes to lead but once again its two runs over this course and distance have resulted in a slow time but i think this surface doesn't really suit it, Spirit Power 5/1 from stall two could lead and gain control of the rails and could make the frame but isn't an each way price, the trainer Anthony Brittain has two entrants in this race and looking at the tissue prices it looks as though Qaaraat 7/2 will be the shorter priced horse of his pair but I will be siding with his other runner DRAKEFELL 9/2 who likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish and i think the 5lb claiming could swing things in this ones favour. 

Drakefell 9/2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 7.40 

Only one natural front running type in JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 and is weighted to finish in a dead-heat with Owhatanight who beat it by three quarters of a length last time out but there is another 3lbs between them here and the latter is drawn widest of all so will need a perfect run to catch the front runner so has to be my selection, Dirchill 11/2 has been known to lead if nothing else wants to but that wont happen here although it is well housed in stall one but needs to improve time wise to win this race, I think Everkyllachey 5/1 might be better over shorter and Secret Treaties may need further but the rest of the runners, Dylans Lad 6/1, Moveonup 14/1 and Paddy Power 18/1 all look capable of running a good race and could be battling for the places but I am hoping my selection can lead all the way here and this time hold on for the win.

Jazz Legend 9/1 8th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

5:40 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (1st February)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.40 

DRAKEFELL 11/2 usually likes to track the leaders and going back to 2019 it is top rated on my speed figures but it has been quite a bit below that level since but it does have what looks to be a positive jockey booking. 

SLOWMO 10/3 has the plum stall 1 draw and that is ideal for this front running sort and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and its my top rated on recent, 2020/21, times and joint 2nd top rated on overall times. 

LONGROOM 10/1 hasn't shown much time wise for quite awhile now and if i go back to 2019 it would be joint 2nd top rated overall but its not for me till it shows a sign of something better to come and I would lay it if a single figure price if it wasn't for the fact its one of only 2 known horses that like to front run and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead although i doubt that will happen.

LORNA COLE 9/1 has only slow times over this c/d and that I think is down to the fact in my opinion that it might need further to show its best so another to lay if a single figure price.

IT MUST BE FAITH 7/1 is 2nd best on recent c/d times and only 2lbs below top spot and its time from 20019 would only be 1lb higher so could go well and maybe worth backing each way if of value. 

INDIAN PURSUIT 11/4 has only slow times over this c/d from 8 previous runs and that is mainly due to it being another that might prefer a longer distance and the betting was me bewildered and I will lay it at that price.

SCALE FORCE 4/1 has a time that would be just outside my top 3 but it does stay on strongly at the finish over this distance but with only 2 places up for grabs I would look to lay at that price and trade out if it drifts in the betting which would be my advice to anyone following my ramblings as I do finalise my write up the night beforehand and things can easily change overnight with the betting and any non-runners. 

SUMMARY: I will be backing 2 horses in this race, SLOWMO 10/3 who is top rated on recent c/d times and if getting to the front from stall 1 it could prove hard to catch but DRAKEFELL 11/2 does have a c/d time from 2019 that would see it catch the leader hence the 2 bets to cover the angles.

Bold - Bet 

-       - Lay (read for info about price) 

Slowmo 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Drakefell 11/2 7th (1pt) 

Lay Bets: Lorna Cole +1pt, Indian Pursuit +1pt

Total on the Day: 0pts

1:25 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (26th January)

SOUTHWELL 1.25 

There's only 7 runners with one known front running type and one i would like to lay if a single figure price, (Giogiobbo 7/2) who looks better over 6 furlongs and may get outpaced here, so King Of Stars looks the likely leader but time wise I doubt it can hang on for the win but may go ok if allowed an uncontested lead and can set its own slightly slower pace, Thegreatestshowman comes out 3rd top but the apprentices 5lb claim moves it to top spot but he has only 1 previous ride for this stable where he didn't win and trainers 9% win ratio at this course doesn't inspire confidence, MULZIM 5/1 is my 2nd top rated and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish but as the trainer has an 18% win ratio here and the jockey has a 35% win ratio on the stables older horses makes me think that connections are expecting to win here but I do have DRAKEFELL 8/1 rated 2lbs higher and this one also use the same racing tactics while the trainer has a 16% win ratio at the course so i will be backing them both. 

*Sorry, the time for this race was given 1:55. 

Mulzim 5/1 1st (+5pts)

Drakefell 8/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Giogiobbo (+1pt) 

Total: +5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.40

I'm not sure what to make of all these stake races and most of them are full of lightly raced types who are trying to take advantage of their low ratings, I think Kits Allanah may need further and looks as though further suits it better, I think Captain Ryan might set the pace and its best time from 2019 makes it my 3rd top rated but the jockey is 1-20 for the stable enough to put me off, my joint top rated Amazing Amaya jockeys is only 1-42 and again its best time came from 2019, the other joint top rated Dubai Paradise has a poor jockey record of 0-13 and its time comes from Chelmsford, so my money will be riding on the top rated on recent c/d times in the shape of JEANS MAITE 4/1 who recorded that on its only previous c/d run when it won last time out here.

Jeans Maite 4/1 7th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +4pts

6:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (11th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15 

JACK THE TRUTH 8/1 hasn't any recent c/d form to its name, the trainer is 0-9 with its older horses here but the jockey has an overall strike-rate of 17% but is 2-3 on older horses but time wise it needs to improve. 

LIHOU 4/1 has only had 1 run over this c/d but it recorded a relatively slow time the trainer/jockey stats are average, it has been known to set the pace before but maybe it won't be quick enough to do so in this race and might be worth laying. 

SECOND COLLECTION 8/1 hasn't any c/d form to its name and everything points to it wanting a longer trip to show its best and again just average trainer/jockey stats, it has won twice from sixteen AW runs but it looks a lay if in a single figure price at the time of the race. 

MUTABAAHY 8/1 likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, it has good jockey stats with average trainer stats, has won 5 and been placed twice in eight previous c/d races and is top rated on recent (2020/21) times and joint 2nd top overall. 

VERNE CASTLE 3/1 is the one i think can set the pace in this race and in a small field and the make-up of this race stall 8 might not be too bad, it has any recent c/d runs but could do enough to make the frame although its only 4th top rated overall and isn't an each way price, it has average trainer stats but the jockey is 0-6 for the stable so I'm not sure what to expect. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 9/1 has average trainer/jockey stats but does have a time recorded in 2019 that would make it joint 2nd top rate overall so it could make the frame and its c/d record is 1 win, 3 places from 12 runs.

DRAKEFELL 5/1 has a time from this year that makes it 3rd top on recent times but it has a time from 2019 that makes it my top rated, it has 2 wins no places from 4 c/d runs, so must be considered as the probable winner.

RED ALERT 50/1 has only ran once over this c/d to its name which resulted in a slow time, it has average trainer/jockey stats and I think it will be a better prospect when raced over further. 

SUMMARY: There is a couple I could lay but I expect them to be outsiders in the betting, Verne Castle could lead and maybe do enough to make the frame, DRAKEFELL 5/1 is my top rated and would be my sole selection if it wasn't for that time being recorded in 2019 so I will also be backing the 2020 top rated horse MUTABAAHY 8/1 and that time is good enough for 2nd top rated overall, it also has good jockey stats making me think connections are expecting a big run.

Mutabaahy 9/1 6th (-1pt)

Drakefell 5/1 7th (-1pt)

Total on the day -2pts

1:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (5th January)

LINGFIELD 1.40 

A field of 9 in this sprint and a couple of horses that have been known to lead before, Miss Thoughtful has only slow times to its name on this surface despite winning both here and Kempton and I will look to lay it if of value, Our Oystercatcher has no course form but its best time from Chelmsford would leave it a bit short of winning this race so another to lay, Monsieur Patat hasn't made the frame in its 3 previous AW runs and looking at its turf form I'm not sure this surface will suit it so maybe a third lay in the race, Hey Ho Lets Go is my joint 2nd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish and could possibly make the frame, Sword Exceed is my other joint 2nd top rated and this one has been known to lead before but only when nothing else wants to which I don't think will happen here as SWISS PRIDE 7/1 is more of a natural front runner and if getting to the front it could prove hard to peg back. 

Swiss Pride 7/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

LINGFIELD 3.10 

For a class 6 race this, on paper, looks very very competitive with a problem that I hate and that is a lack of early pace, delve a little deeper and it uncovers the fact that most of the runners are not in the best of form with Passional 11/8 being the exception but its wins have been on different surfaces at Southwell and Wolverhampton but if it takes to this surface it could fulfill the hattrick, I think it will be a hot favourite and not my idea of a good bet especially with some unanswered questions so maybe this race is best leaf alone and I am certainly not putting it up as a selection at the price. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10 

Another 9 runner race but with 3 known front runners in the field plus another that has led before, this surface might not be ideal for Alsvinder so one to consider laying, I expect Miaella to be at the fore in the betting but its time when winning over this c/d was in a slow run affair and maybe this isn't this ones ideal surface either, Chitra a possible pacesetter with the plum stall 1 draw is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times and could do enough at least to make the frame and maybe worth an each way bet, Shamshon is in good form at the moment but stall 8 might not be ideal in the make-up of this race, the pace may set the race up for one finishing fast and that's my selections favoured tactics so DRAKEFELL 8/1 could stay on strongly at the finish and get back to winning ways.

Drakefell 8/1 6th (-1pt)

Total on the day -2pts