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Showing posts with label Hello Me. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hello Me. Show all posts

Wednesday, 6 September 2023

6:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (7th September)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15 

The early pace in this race could be set by Razzam and if allowed a soft lead then it could be dangerous and might do enough to at least make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price according to the early tissue prices, Momaer has also led before but this distance looks a bit too short for it but did record a decent rating on turf at Leicester over this distance so I'm not quite sure what to expect from this horse so not a bet or lay on it. International Girl and Le Beau Garcon could struggle to stay this distance if there's a fast early pace which I expect will happen in this race. Alcazn and Water Of Leith are capable of producing good ratings but in lower class races than this class 4 affair. My money in this race will be riding on HELLO ME 11/2 who will most likely track the leaders waiting to pounce nearing the finish and then prove the stronger, the trainer has a 23% win ratio with their older horses at this course which hopefully is a pointer to the stable expecting it to run a very big race here.

Hello Me 11/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.45 

From stall 2 Walking On Clouds might attempt to lead all the way in this race and being my 3rd top rated it could possibly do enough to make the frame but it has never won at this level before so i doubt it can lead all the way for the victory, Space Cowboy can also front run but only if its allowed to set its own usually slower pace but I doubt that will happen here with 2 others that have been known to lead before if nothing else wants to, Mum's Tipple comes out in 5th top spot on my figures and races as though further would suit it better so should be staying on nearing the finish but maybe too late to win, Good Earth could lead if nothing else wants to set the pace but can struggle to stay this distance in a fast run race but despite that still comes out 4th best on my ratings, Strong Power usually races in midfield or at the rear of the field and then stays on stoutly towards the end of the race but hasn't been in good form lately, top of my own unique charts is ARAMIS GREY 16/1 (EW) who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics but I expect from stall 5 it will slot in just behind the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and if an each way price then that would be a bonus.

Aramis Grey 16/1 3rd +3pts 

Total +3pts

Total on the day +2pts

Wednesday, 30 November 2022

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (1st December)

CHELMSFORD 6.30 Div I 

Ten runners in this division where I will be looking towards laying Blackjack 5/1 who may need further and *Our Louise 10/1 who is still a maiden after 15 runs as long as they are single figure prices near the off. Praise Of Shadows 16/1 is my 3rd top rated and could make the frame, on course and distance ratings Real Estate 8/1 is outside my top four ratings but its best rating from Lingfield is good enough to make it my 2nd top rated but I will be hoping the top weight ARAIFJAN 3/1 can get away smartly and at least contest the lead if not actually leading but with not much other known early pace from stall 8 it could get to the front and if leading should prove too hard to catch if it can reproduce its best rating from last year here. 
*NR 

Araifjan 3/1 1st +3pts 

Lay bet Blackjack +1pt

Total +4pts

CHELMSFORD 7.00 Div II

This division looks a little weaker with only 4 of the runners having recorded a speed rating plus there isn't any known front running types so who will set the pace I don't know so any stakes will have to be kept low. Alafdhal is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders and stall 2 should be ok for it, Admirable Lad who is going for a fourtimer is my 2nd top rated it also likes to track the leaders and has the best of the draw in stall 1 so they just might battle to lead hoping to make their draws count but I will be hoping that COMPANY MINX 12/1 (EW) from stall 8 can get a decent early position from which to attack later on in the race and did hint at a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out but the stable hasn't been in top form lately and I will be much happier if its an each way price. 

Company Minx 14/1 9th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

A class 4 dash with 7 of the 11 runners having been known to lead before and they might go off too fast and set it up for one of the 4 that wont be trying to lead. I'm not sure there will be anything of value to lay in this race but the betting will be the deciding factor for that idea. As for the winner, I'm not sure what will lead or what can prevail the longest I just think they will push each other too hard and fade nearing the finish but Expert Opinion and Red Walls can produce good ratings they are usually in lower class races, the 3yo Cabeza De Llave 8/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish and races as though further would suit it better but this race could be run to suit it so might be worth an each way interest but I will be backing HELLO ME 14/1 (EW) who is forecast to be an outsider and if so looks the value call in the race, it has won 4 times and been placed twice in the 9 runs its had on an artificial surface so could go well here and has to be an each way bet at the price. 

Hello Me 16/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts

CHELMSFORD 8.00 

Another 5 furlong dash with 2 known front running types amongst the 12 runners, I will look to lay Embla 10/1 if its a single figure price near the off, who may need further to shine and the same applies to Man On A Mission but being a 3yo this latter one could still improve, Red Stripes my 4th joint top rated and Ubahha my 3rd top rated are the ones I expect to set the early pace and either could do enough to make the frame so maybe worth an each way punt but which one I've no idea. Storm Melody is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and a reproduction of its best 2021 rating would see it make the frame here but hasn't been near that level this year so I will take a bit of a punt in this race and go with an each wager on IESHA 9/1 (EW) who hasn't been in good form lately but is a horse that can spring back to form without prior warning and it did record its best rating earlier this year, the stable hasn't been in great form lately but i'm hoping it will be a double figure price to make it worth the risk.

Iesha 18/1 8th -2pts

Lay bet Man On A Mission +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

Saturday, 8 October 2022

7:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (8th October)

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A class 4 race which isn't the best for its grade, the early pace could well be set by ARAMIS GREY 9/2 and being my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating it could do enough from the front to at least make the frame and could even win the race if others falter, HELLO ME 12/1 comes out in top spot for just this years course and distance ratings and comes out 2nd best on overall figures so has to be worth an each way interest, TOTAL COMMITMENT 20/1 hasn't any form over this course to work with but its best 2021 time from Lingfield would see it win by a whisker and I cannot let it run without some money on it at the price, as all 3 did their best last year I'm not able to split them any further but I also have four other horses that I cannot discount completely the stakes for this race will be kept to a minimum and it might even be a race to leave well alone. 

Aramis Grey 9/2 1st +4.5pts
Total Commintement 20/1 2nd -1pts
Hello Me 12/1 7th -1pt 

Total +2.5pts

CHELMSFORD 7.30 Div I

What a poor race with only the top four in the handicap having run fast enough to register on my figures, Shamshon 9/1 would at some point in the past have eaten this lot alive but this 11yo seems to be on the decline but could possibly make the frame if able to reproduce its best 2021 rating, Babe Alicious 9/4 usually stays on strongly at the finish and with no known front runners in this race it might not be run to suit its racing style and therefore doesn't look value at the price, Mr Fayez 6/1 would have every chance using its best figure from 2021 over this course and distance but its still a maiden after 17 starts which is a bit off-putting, so my money will be riding on FLAVIUS TITUS 9/4 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish but once again the question is, will the race be run to suit it, I cannot answer that question so once again low stakes are called for. 

Flavius Titus 9/4 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 8.00 Div II

Division 2 isn't any better and I will be very surprised if the winner didn't come from the top 5 in the handicap, Pretty Shiftwell 8/1 can find this distance too far for it but once again with no confirmed front running type in the race it might not get to the front soon enough for the win, Amalfi Gem 5/2 and Jumira Bridge 9/1 come out in joint 3rd top position so either could make the frame, Griggy 11/8 has been in tremendous form recently winning its last 2 races and could complete the hat trick here but I expect it to be the short priced favourite and therefore not of value to back so instead I will take a punt and go with backing COMPANY MINX 9/1 (EW) it looks the value call in the race and hoping it will be an each way price as a form of insurance with the apprentice jockey being 1 from 1 for the stable i hope he can make it 2 from 2.

Company Minx 10/1 3rd +1pt

Total +1pt 

Total on the day +2.5pts