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Showing posts with label I Am A Dreamer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label I Am A Dreamer. Show all posts

Monday, 11 July 2022

2:40 Beverley Racing Tips (12th July)

BEVERLEY 2.40 Div I

What a poor start to the days sprints, a 12 runner race but not one known front running type amongst them which automatically puts me on the back foot, I will look to lay Enraged 7/2 who races as though a longer distance would suit it better and this race doesn't look likely to be run to suit its style, as for the winner I have narrowed it down to 3 runners, BRAZEN BELLE 11/1 is my top rated and won at this distance 2 runs ago at Ripon and then didn't stay the 6th furlong in its last run but the trainer is 0-11 at this course and the jockey is 0-5 for the stable so I couldn't back just this one here, HOT SCOOP 13/2 is my 2nd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish so a low early pace might not suit, it also has poor trainer 0-4 and jockey 0-6 stats and its been 38 runners over the last 288 days since the stable last had a winner, my 3rd top rated ELZAAL 6/1 has slightly better trainer/jockey stats and the trainer has had 4 winners in the last 2 weeks, there is only 3lbs between my top 3 ratings so any could win but my stakes will be kept low. 

Elzaal 6/1 3rd -1pt 
Brazen Belle 11/1 Unp -1pt 
Hot Scoop 9/1 Unp 

Lay bet Enraged -4pts

Total -7pts

BEVERLEY 3.10 Div II 

This 2nd division isn't much better apart from the fact it has 2 known front runners, pity there wasn't one in each division, of the 2 I expect Newgate Angel to do best and if allowed an easy lead it could do enough to make the frame as its my 3rd top rated, I will look to lay Gorgeous General 7/1 who has only slow times on turf and is 0-16 on grass and I doubt that will change here, there two 3yo’s Primo 7/2 and Chant For More 9/1 who could be worth laying but I am adverse to laying these youngsters especially when there looks to be a safer lay in the race, Mokaman is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and could stay on to make the frame but i will be backing CUPPACOCO 12/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and if able to reproduce its best rating from 2021 at Thirsk it would win with a bit in hand and has good trainer/jockey stats with their elder horses with a double figure price on offer it has to be an each way wager. 

Cuppacoco 14/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bet Gorgeous General +1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 8.50 

Nine runners with just one known front running type in the field, I will look to lay Amasova 9/1 who does its best ratings over shorter distances, Bomb Squad does come out 2nd best but that's using a time recorded on the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton and drops to 3rd best on Polytrack figures only using a time from Kempton but I think a longer trip might suit it better, The Nail Gunner 5/2 has only slow times to its name both here and at Kempton so could be another one to lay especially at such a relatively short price, Brazen Arrow comes out in 2nd top spot on Polytrack times while the one I will be punting on is I AM A DREAMER 14/1 (EW) who is my top rated using a course and distance time it recorded last year and is the front running type I mentioned earlier and if getting to the front and fully fit it could lead all the way for the victory but at the price on offer it has to be an each way bet.

I Am A Dreamer 14/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -10pts

Monday, 25 April 2022

2:40 Yarmouth Racing Tips (26th April)

YARMOUTH 2.40 

All low grade class 5 races today which doesn't inspire confidence on turf as consistency cannot be applied to many if any at this level, I'm not sure what will set the pace but if i had to guess I would go with Palifico who has done it before when nothing else wanted to lead and could be dangerous if leading here, if there isn't a fast early pace then Special Mayson may find the trip too short for it while Mehmo could struggle to stay if there is a fast early pace, my top rated horse is I AM A DREAMER 14/1 who might be worth a small each way interest, if not big enough to back each way then probably best to leave the race alone, somethings that does put me off backing this horse is the trainers 1-56 stats at this course and the jockeys 0-4 for this stable plus its been 23 runners and 71 days since the stables last winner. 

I Am A Dreamer 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

AYR 6.15 

Just 7 runners for this race with Kraken Power the most likely one to set the early pace and being my 3rd top rated it could go well but will need to improve a few spots if others run to their best to win this race, I could look to lay four of the runners if of value to do so, I've got Shalaa Asker as my top rated but this horse seems to run ok without winning as its had 12 races on grass being placed in half of them but no wins which is off-putting also the jockeys 1-19 record for the stable doesn't inspire confidence so I will put my faith on the top weight PEARL OF QATAR 9/2 who is dropped in class to run in this race and has won before when returning after a break, with the trainers 27% win ratio at this course and the jockeys 21% win ratio for the stable it looks like connections are expecting a big run in this race and getting it back to winning ways. 

Pearl Of Qatar 9/1 1st +9pts 

Total +9pts  

AYR 8.00 

Down to a measly 6 runners in this race but there isn't what I would call a natural front running type in the race although JORDAN ELECTRICS 12/1 has led before over six furlongs but may not usually be able to lead over this distance but if nothing else wants to lead then it could lead all the way, it usually finds this distance too short on good to firm going, as it is my joint top rated along with ALBEGONE 4/1 who usually stays on at the finish over this distance and this pair are only rated 2lbs higher than ROSE BANDIT 5/2 who won last time 10 days ago so we know this one is in tip top form, I was thinking of dutching these 3 runners and will do so if its possible when I see the betting for the race but maybe the way to make a profit from this race is by laying something and my candidate to lay is the bottom weight Spanish Angel 5/2 who races as though further would suit it better and the early pace may not be quick in this race so it might not suit it and the trainers strike rate is only 7% and the jockeys win ratio for today's stable is only 5%.

Albegone 6/1 1st +6pts
Rose Bandit 5/2 4th -1pt 
Jordan Electrics 12/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Spanish Angel +1pt 

Total +5pts

Total on the day +13pts