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Showing posts with label Rose Bandit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rose Bandit. Show all posts

Monday, 25 April 2022

2:40 Yarmouth Racing Tips (26th April)

YARMOUTH 2.40 

All low grade class 5 races today which doesn't inspire confidence on turf as consistency cannot be applied to many if any at this level, I'm not sure what will set the pace but if i had to guess I would go with Palifico who has done it before when nothing else wanted to lead and could be dangerous if leading here, if there isn't a fast early pace then Special Mayson may find the trip too short for it while Mehmo could struggle to stay if there is a fast early pace, my top rated horse is I AM A DREAMER 14/1 who might be worth a small each way interest, if not big enough to back each way then probably best to leave the race alone, somethings that does put me off backing this horse is the trainers 1-56 stats at this course and the jockeys 0-4 for this stable plus its been 23 runners and 71 days since the stables last winner. 

I Am A Dreamer 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

AYR 6.15 

Just 7 runners for this race with Kraken Power the most likely one to set the early pace and being my 3rd top rated it could go well but will need to improve a few spots if others run to their best to win this race, I could look to lay four of the runners if of value to do so, I've got Shalaa Asker as my top rated but this horse seems to run ok without winning as its had 12 races on grass being placed in half of them but no wins which is off-putting also the jockeys 1-19 record for the stable doesn't inspire confidence so I will put my faith on the top weight PEARL OF QATAR 9/2 who is dropped in class to run in this race and has won before when returning after a break, with the trainers 27% win ratio at this course and the jockeys 21% win ratio for the stable it looks like connections are expecting a big run in this race and getting it back to winning ways. 

Pearl Of Qatar 9/1 1st +9pts 

Total +9pts  

AYR 8.00 

Down to a measly 6 runners in this race but there isn't what I would call a natural front running type in the race although JORDAN ELECTRICS 12/1 has led before over six furlongs but may not usually be able to lead over this distance but if nothing else wants to lead then it could lead all the way, it usually finds this distance too short on good to firm going, as it is my joint top rated along with ALBEGONE 4/1 who usually stays on at the finish over this distance and this pair are only rated 2lbs higher than ROSE BANDIT 5/2 who won last time 10 days ago so we know this one is in tip top form, I was thinking of dutching these 3 runners and will do so if its possible when I see the betting for the race but maybe the way to make a profit from this race is by laying something and my candidate to lay is the bottom weight Spanish Angel 5/2 who races as though further would suit it better and the early pace may not be quick in this race so it might not suit it and the trainers strike rate is only 7% and the jockeys win ratio for today's stable is only 5%.

Albegone 6/1 1st +6pts
Rose Bandit 5/2 4th -1pt 
Jordan Electrics 12/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Spanish Angel +1pt 

Total +5pts

Total on the day +13pts

Monday, 28 June 2021

4:10 Brighton Racing Tips (29th June)

I HAVE SAID THIS MANY TIMES BEFORE BUT PLEASE MAKE SURE THE GOING IS GOOD OR FIRMER AS MY FIGURES ARE ALL CALCULATED ON THAT SORT OF GROUND AND RAIN IS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS. 

BRIGHTON 4.10 

A 6 runner race with one known front runner among them, Minhaaj may need further to show its best and might be worth laying, It Must Be Faith hasn't won at this distance in the England and usually likes to track the leaders, Newyorkstateofmind is my 4th top rated and like all of my top 4 ratings its time was recorded this year, Wiley Post is in 3rd top spot but doesn't seem to like fast good to firm ground, Shamshon comes out 2nd best using a Windsor time but my top rated is the front running AISH 13/2 who also recorded its time at Windsor and the trainer does well at this course and I'm hoping it can lead all the way.

Aish 1st 7/1 +7pts

Lay bet Minhaaj +1pt

Total +8pts 

HAMILTON 4.50 

Only 7 runners with one front running type but Afandem usually fades at this trip unless allowed a very soft lead and I will lay it if of any value to do so, Gunmetal is my 3rd top rated but doesn't really like good to firm ground, LADY CELIA 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but the jockeys 3lb claim makes it joint top rated along with ROYAL ADVICE 12/1 and with them both being young horses they could both be capable of further improvement so I will be backing them both. 

Abandoned 

HAMILTON 5.20

For a class 6 race this 14 runner affair doesn't look too bad, firstly I will be looking to lay, Stronsay 5/1 who may need further to show its best, and Lord Of The Glen 9/1 I have 3 horses that are versatile with their racing styles which includes leading but they would all need to improve and there is one more natural front runner in the shape of ALSVINDER 7/1 who has good jockey stats and could go well and would be my only selection if it wasn't for the trainers 0-19 record at this course which is a little off-putting, i will look to lay Stronsay who might prefer a longer trip and Lord Of The Glen who has one win from 27 runs on turf, ROSE BANDIT 4/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times so has to be feared and usually tracks the leaders before staying on at the finish, the top weight HARD SOLUTION 5/1 will be running on at the finish and has both good trainer and jockey stats and the apprentices 5lb claim should help its chances. 

Abandoned 

CHEPSTOW 6.50 

A 17 runner race with just one known front running type in the race, I cannot see anything of value to lay but that might change when the betting is known, I also cannot narrow it down to any less than 4 selections but I will be having one main bet and then back the other 3 to varying degrees to make a profit whichever one wins, Fard is the likely pacesetter and my joint 3rd top rated and the jockey booking looks a positive for the stable, Twice As Likely is the other 3rd top rated and the jockey has a 17% win ratio for the stable and both of them recorded their best speed figures this year, Our Man In Havana is my 2nd top rated using a 2020 time from Windsor and is another with good jockey stats and the apprentices 7lb claim could help its cause but most of my money will be riding on WIFF WAFF 9/1 who did its best time at Leicester last year and this race which doesn't look likely to be too fast in the early stages suits its favoured style of racing.

Wiff Waff 14/1 5th -1pt 

Total on the day +7pts