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Showing posts with label Albegone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Albegone. Show all posts

Tuesday, 31 May 2022

3:00 Nottingham Racing Tips (1st June)

NOTTINGHAM 3.00 

A ten runner class 5 race with a couple of known front running types, I will look to lay Jet Set Go 15/2 if its a single figure price as I'm not sure if it wants good to firm ground, hasn't been in good form recently and is still a maiden after 14 races of which 12 have been on grass, the early pace may be set by Come On Girl 5/1, or Jet Set Go, and is my 3rd top rated so if leading could do enough to make the frame, Desert Lime 10/1 hasn't any form on grass to work with but its best rating on the AW would make it my 2nd top rated so could go well if taking to the grass surface here, my top rated is SOLLER BAY 8/1 who recorded its top rating earlier this year at Doncaster and a repeat of that rating would see visiting the winners enclosure. 
Soller Bay 10/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

RIPON 6.35 

A ten runner class three race, again with a couple of known front runners, I have a feeling that there won't be anything of value to lay in this race, Marks Choice 12/1 my 4th top rated and Bossipop 14/1 my 3rd top rated are the two that are known to lead so a lot of the runners might not be able to get involved in the finish and either or both could make the frame, Intrinsic Bond 10/1 sits in second top spot using a rating recorded over this course and distance last year but I do have CITY WALK 3/1 rated higher but that is using a time recorded in 2020 at Yarmouth but showed its in good form by winning last time out on an All-Weather course and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

City Walk 3/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

RIPON 8.10 

Just seven runners for this class five dash, I will look to lay Nibras Again 8/1 if its a single figure price as it may need this run for race fitness and needs to improve time wise to win this race, also Morty 6/1 who finds this distance a bit too far for it with a decent early paced gallop which should be set in this race by Dapper Man 7/1 who is my third top rated horse and does seem to need good to firm ground to produce its best ratings, Latin Five is actually my top rated but hasn't been in good form lately and may find this distance too short on fast ground and i think the betting will reflect that, so I will be putting my faith and money on ALBEGONE 5/2 who has decent trainer/jockey stats and it did record its best rating over today's course and distance earlier this year.

Albegone 5/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Morty +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -2pts

Monday, 25 April 2022

2:40 Yarmouth Racing Tips (26th April)

YARMOUTH 2.40 

All low grade class 5 races today which doesn't inspire confidence on turf as consistency cannot be applied to many if any at this level, I'm not sure what will set the pace but if i had to guess I would go with Palifico who has done it before when nothing else wanted to lead and could be dangerous if leading here, if there isn't a fast early pace then Special Mayson may find the trip too short for it while Mehmo could struggle to stay if there is a fast early pace, my top rated horse is I AM A DREAMER 14/1 who might be worth a small each way interest, if not big enough to back each way then probably best to leave the race alone, somethings that does put me off backing this horse is the trainers 1-56 stats at this course and the jockeys 0-4 for this stable plus its been 23 runners and 71 days since the stables last winner. 

I Am A Dreamer 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

AYR 6.15 

Just 7 runners for this race with Kraken Power the most likely one to set the early pace and being my 3rd top rated it could go well but will need to improve a few spots if others run to their best to win this race, I could look to lay four of the runners if of value to do so, I've got Shalaa Asker as my top rated but this horse seems to run ok without winning as its had 12 races on grass being placed in half of them but no wins which is off-putting also the jockeys 1-19 record for the stable doesn't inspire confidence so I will put my faith on the top weight PEARL OF QATAR 9/2 who is dropped in class to run in this race and has won before when returning after a break, with the trainers 27% win ratio at this course and the jockeys 21% win ratio for the stable it looks like connections are expecting a big run in this race and getting it back to winning ways. 

Pearl Of Qatar 9/1 1st +9pts 

Total +9pts  

AYR 8.00 

Down to a measly 6 runners in this race but there isn't what I would call a natural front running type in the race although JORDAN ELECTRICS 12/1 has led before over six furlongs but may not usually be able to lead over this distance but if nothing else wants to lead then it could lead all the way, it usually finds this distance too short on good to firm going, as it is my joint top rated along with ALBEGONE 4/1 who usually stays on at the finish over this distance and this pair are only rated 2lbs higher than ROSE BANDIT 5/2 who won last time 10 days ago so we know this one is in tip top form, I was thinking of dutching these 3 runners and will do so if its possible when I see the betting for the race but maybe the way to make a profit from this race is by laying something and my candidate to lay is the bottom weight Spanish Angel 5/2 who races as though further would suit it better and the early pace may not be quick in this race so it might not suit it and the trainers strike rate is only 7% and the jockeys win ratio for today's stable is only 5%.

Albegone 6/1 1st +6pts
Rose Bandit 5/2 4th -1pt 
Jordan Electrics 12/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Spanish Angel +1pt 

Total +5pts

Total on the day +13pts

Saturday, 18 September 2021

3:50 Hamilton Racing Tips (19th September)

HAMILTON 3.50 

MEWS HOUSE 7/2 usually races in midfield before trying to stay on at the finish but it needs to improve time wise to win this race. 

TOMILY 15/2 comes out 4th best on my speed figures but as it doesn't seem to like good to firm ground its times will not be as good as others that do like the faster going. 

ECONOMICAL CRISIS 11/1 is another that doesn't seem to like good to firm ground but is 3rd best on my speed figures so could make the frame.

ALBEGONE 11/8 won nicely last time out and it comes out 2nd best on my speed figures, being a 3yo it could improve and has a chance of following up in this race but it would need to improve 4lbs or hope the top rated doesn't run to its best so doesn't look much value.

SHESADABBER 10/1 is the only natural front running type I can see in this race and its best time recorded from the front did come over this course and distance.

THE GLOAMING 15/2 isn't in my top 4 ratings but being a 3yo it could still improve, I'm just hoping it doesn't happen in this race.

ANGLES EYES 33/1 is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics including leading if nothing else wants to but it wont need to in this race. 

HEER ME 80/1 has very poor form and i expect it will be the outsider in this race.

LANCASHIRE LIFE 40/1 has only a slow time over this distance when finishing 3rd and is a maiden after 7 runs and hasn't made the frame in those races. 

SUMMARY: I expect the 3yo ALBEGONE 11/8 will be the hot favourite after its win last time out and does come out 2nd top rated on my figures and could improve again to win this race but I do have SHESADABBER 10/1 rated 3lbs higher and its the most likely pacesetter to this race, so if allowed an easy lead and can repeat its best time recorded over this course and distance earlier this year it could hold on for the win so I will be going with 2 bets in this race.

Albegone 6/4 1st +1.5pts
Shesadabber 10/1 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day +0.5pts

Thursday, 22 July 2021

4:10 Ascot Racing Tips (23rd July)

ASCOT 4.10 

Only 6 runners with 4 of them having led before it could be a fast and furious 5 furlong dash, the bottom two, Mountain Peak 8/1 and Bedford Flyer 7/1 have a negative against their names so may be worth laying, Jawwaal 11/4 will need the leaders to tire badly to catch them, Tis Marvellous and Significantly could both try to lead but on overall speed figures they may struggle to keep up with CASPIAN PRINCE 9/1 who if getting to the front could prove hard to catch especially if it can reproduce its best time Musselburgh earlier this year and looks the value call in the race if nothing else. 

Caspian Prince 16/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

THIRSK 4.35 

There's a couple of known front runners in this race but neither feature top 4 ratings, I will look to lay Celerity 9/1 if its still a single figure price near the off which I doubt will happen, Hard Solution 9/2 may need a longer trip on good to firm ground it nearly always runs well but I'm doubting it will stay on fast enough to win this race so maybe another worth laying, the 3yo Royal Jazz has only a slow time over this distance on good ground and despite being a possible pacesetter it will need to improve time wise to win this race and may get taken on for the lead by Spirit Power and both may fade nearing the finish and if it wasn't for the fact that Royal Jazz is a 3yo I would out it up as a lay, Hello Girl 14/1 is my 2nd top rated on both 2021 times and overall figures so maybe worth a small each way punt but I will be backing the 3yo ALBEGONE 4/1 who recorded its best time this year over this course and distance and a repeat would see it winning again. 

Albegone 9/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Clebrity +1pt

Total 0pts

YORK 6.30 

For a class 4 race this is quite poor although I cannot see anything of value to put forward as a lay but the betting might change my mind, Hurstwood is my 3rd top rated using a time recorded at Ripon this year and usually likes to track the leaders but I cannot see a natural front running type in the race which always causes me problems in analysing a race, sitting in 2nd top spot is Gunmetal but this ones best time also came from last year at Ripon but I have OBEE JO 11/2 sitting in top pot with a few spots in hand, it won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up in this race and booked jockey has a 20% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Obee Jo 6/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHEPSTOW 7.40 

A 5 furlong dash with 3 known front running types in the race and those 3 are all in my top 5 ratings, I will look to lay Gherkin who may need further and may also lay Toptime and Glamorous Breeze who are 3yo’s which means they could improve but I'm hoping it doesn't happen in this race, if the leaders go off and cut each others throats then Lethal Angel and or Zulu Zander may be the ones to prosper and might be worth having a covering bet on just incase the leaders tire badly nearing the finish, Davids Beauty and Pink Flamingo are 2 possible pacesetters and could do enough to make the frame but i will be putting my faith in THEGREYVTRAIN 4/1 who is a possible leader and if doing so could be hard to catch, its best time from this year plus the apprentices 7lb claim make it my top rated and it has an even faster time from 2020 which would see it winning with a little bit in hand.

Thegrevytrain 4/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Gherkin +1pt 

Total on the day -2pts