A field of 9 with only Winnetka known to front run but as its only 5th top on my overall figures I doubt it can stay ahead to the finishing line, I will look to lay Knockout Blow 7/1 if its a single figure price at the off as this one can struggle to stay the distance in a true run race even though it is my 4th top rated , there is only 1lb between my 4th to 2nd top rated horses, Pueblo Del Pueblo is my joint 2nd top rated who has been in decent form but the jockey taking the ride for this race is 1-46 for the stable so maybe this race isn't their target, SEPRANI 11/2 is the other joint 2nd top rated and the jockey booking on this one looks significant as the apprentice has a 33% win ratio for the stable, VINCENZO COCCOTTI 8/1 comes out in top spot but hasn't been in form lately but is capable of winning without prior warning so I will be backing them both.
Vincenzo Coccotti 20/1 6th -1pt
Seprani 12/1 7th -1pt
Total -2pts
LINGFIELD 3.00
Another 9 runner race but this time there's 3 horses that have been known to lead before, I will look to lay Campachoochoo 6/1 who won a slow run race at Chelmsford and another slow run affair when 3rd over this c/d so may have been flattered by those results, the versatile racing tactically horse Hurricane Alert has been out of form for quite awhile now and I think will be an outsider, Lorna Cole 4/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish and being my 3rd top rated it could make the frame but isn't an each way price, the old-timer Captain Ryan comes out 2nd best on my figures and is another that will be trying to stay on at the finish if its runs to its best it could make the frame but i will be hoping that THEGREYVTRAIN 6/4 will lead from start to finish it has been knocking on the door lately and has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways in this race as the price shows, I was expecting or maybe hoping for a bigger price but its best rating is 11lb higher than the second top rated but at this level consistency isn't guaranteed.
Thegreyvtrain 13/8 1st +1.625 + F/C £55.66 + TRI £202.50
Total +1.625pts
SOUTHWELL 7.30
This time an eight runner race but now there isn't any known front running types in the race as River Tweed is a non-runner, Tyger Bay 7/2 hasn't any form on this surface and will need to improve for the switch and might be worth taking on with a lay bet then add One Hart 9/1 to my lay list, as long as they are single figure prices at the off, as this might prefer further and hasn't been in good form lately, in 3rd top spot I've got Mutabaahy but its another horse that hasn't been in good form in its latest runs, the top weight TRIGGERED 5/1 has been slowly returning to form finishing 4th and then 3rd in its last 2 runs is my top rated using a time from 2020 it is also my top rated on just times recorded here at Southwell since the change of surface, the trainer is 0-25 in the last 2 weeks which doesn't inspire confidence so I cannot make it my sole bet and will also be backing ROYAL ADVICE 10/1 (EW) who is my 2nd top rated and this ones speed figure was recorded 2021 at Newcastle I am hoping this one will be an each way price as long as all eight take part.
Triggered 5/1 4th -1pt
Royal Advice 16/1 8th -2pts
Lay bets Tyger Bay +1pt, One Heart +1pt
Total -1pt
SOUTHWELL 8.00
We move up to 12 runners for the final sprint of the day with 3 known front runners amongst them, Maple Jack 8/1 may need this run for fitness so one I will lay if its a single figure price at the off, there are confusing form lines and speed figures trying to work out the ratios with this newly laid surface and the 2 other tracks with the Tapeta surface, Vandad is actually my top rated if I use its best rating from Lingfield but this is its debut on this surface so how it will fare I have no idea but I will as usual stick with the proven and the betting will give me a clue about this ones chances, I will be backing 2 in this race firstly the front running ORNATE 8/1 who has the fastest time for just this course with the newly laid surface and could possibly turn the form around with Ooh Is It who beat it by half a length, my second bet will be on PHOENIX STAR 16/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and might be the one to prosper if they go off too fast in the early stages and fade nearing the finish and also has good trainer/jockey stats and at the price has to be backed each way.
Phoenix Star 16/1 3rd +2.2pts
Ornate 8/1 4th -1pt
Total +1.2pts
Total on the day -0.175
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