6:30 Southwell Racing Tips (24th January)

SOUTHWELL 6.30 

A field of 9 for this class 6 sprint with a couple of known front running types, Crocodile Power 9/2 hasn't any form over this distance on an artificial surface and I think its better when racing over further so may not catch the leaders here and I will look to lay it if its value to do so, Triggered 3/1 will also be trying to stay on at the finish but another that might not get there in time for the win so maybe another possible lay, I think that Blackjack 6/1 prefers the Polytrack surface but I don't think it will be of value to lay and the same applies to Starter For Ten. Big Impact is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings and also 2nd top on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere but is a possible pacesetter and has the coveted stall 1 draw but DELLA MARE 6/1 the other possible pacesetter is in stall 4 and is my top rated on just Southwell ratings and this one has good jockey stats, the top weight DEPUTISE 13/2 is my top rated on tapeta ratings from elsewhere but hasn't run here before but if taking to this course could have every chance of winning, it has good trainer and jockey stats so I will have to back both of them to cover the angles of both leaders and finishing types and also the different Tapeta course ratings. 

Deputise 9/1 4th -1pt 

Della Mare 6/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Crocodile Power +1pt, Triggered +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

A class 3 dash with just 7 runners but 4 of them have been known to lead before so it will be fast and furious but they might set the race up for something coming from off the pace as they battle for the lead and fade nearing the finish. I think Tolstoy 7/1 will try to stay on at the finish but maybe not fast enough to get the win and might be worth laying if value to do so. Vespasian hasn't any form over this distance and I'm not quite sure what to expect from it so couldn't back or lay it. Strong Johnson did win in Ireland but not sure what to expect from it here as I cannot compare form lines, May Sonic will probably be too big a price to lay but races as though further would suit it better. Murbih 12/1 might do best of the front running types but I'm hoping that this race will fall into the lap of HIYA MAITE 4/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and has decent trainer/jockey stats.

Hiya Maite 4/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Tolstoy +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day 0pts

6:00 Southwell Racing Tips (29th December)

SOUTHWELL 6.00 

A field of 12 for this class 4 dash with 2 known front running types and Airshow is one of them and my 4th top rated and this one could go well if allowed an easy lead and could make the frame but I doubt it can actually win this race and might in fact need this run for fitness, Aberama Gold may need further to show its best and I will look to lay this pair if they are single figure prices. Twilight Madness completed its hattrick last time out and should go well again here but is only 3rd on my course and distance figures so it might be in the grip of the official handicapper now so may need to be raised in class to be more competitive, Stone Of Destiny is my 2nd top rated horse on course and distance ratings but drops down 4th on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere. I've got HIYA MAITE 4/1 as my top rated on both sets of figures and has good trainer 34% and jockey 29% win ratios but the draw hasn't been kind for it so I just hope it can get a decent early position just behind the leaders from which to attack nearing the finish. 

Hiya Maite 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 6.30 

A full house of 14 for this class 5 sprint and once again 2 known front running types amongst them, I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay in this race but the analysis is made difficult with 2 sets of figures, one for just course and distance rating and the second for Tapeta ratings from either Newcastle or Wolverhampton, Blackjack has finished 2nd in its last 2 runs and ought to make the frame again here as its my 2nd top rated on ratings over this course and distance while Politics is my 2nd top rated on times from elsewhere, my top rated on Tapeta times from elsewhere is PORFIN 10/1 but this one hasn't any form on this course to work with but if taking to this course it could go well so has to carry some of my money in an each way wager at the price and then i will also back the course and distance top rated horse in the shape of POLITICS 7/2, both won last time out and both appear to have been found an opportunity to follow up here.

Porfin 10/1 2nd -1pt 

Politics 7/2 6th -1pt

Total -2pts

Total on the day -3pts 

4:10 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (9th December)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10 Div I

Ten runners in this class 6 dash with 3 of them being known to lead before, there's 4 horses, Red Stripes, Pivoting, But You Said and Liberty Bay that look to have very little chance of winning this race and I expect will be outsiders. The top 4 in the weights, Our Louise 8/1, Munificent 3/1, Jack Ryan 3/1 and Waverly Star 6/1 all race as though a longer distance would suit them better, Rockley Point 20/1 is a possible pacesetter here and has the plum stall one draw which could help its cause but my money will be riding on TOPLIGHT 6/1 who can either race in midfield or be held up for a late run and if able to reproduce its best rating from 2021 it would be winning this race a shade cosily plus the jockey does quite well with an 18% win ratio for the stable on their older horses. 

Toplight 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.40 Div II

Ten runners again with again 3 of them having been known to lead before, if I'm right there's not many horses that could win this race, I expect Nellie French, Moveonup, Elf Rising and Miss Fernando to be outsiders in the betting and look to have virtually no chance of winning this race but never say never, I think the quartet of Eastern Star 8/1, The Gloaming 9/4, Embla 5/1 and Big Time Maybe 7/1 need a longer distance to show their best form. The top weight Ellie Piper 8/1 needs to improve time wise to win this race which leaves me with SHAMSHON 9/2 who seems to like this course and if it comes back to its best here even from stall 9 it could lead all the way. 

Shamshon 8/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 5.15 

NEVER DARK is drawn in stall 8 which isn't ideal for a front running type and needs to improve time wise to win this but won last time so is in good form. 

LIHOU would be my 3rd top rated if I used its best rating from 2021 at Wolverhampton but hasnt been in good form lately but is best drawn of the known front running types in this race.

JOSIES KID this 3yo can either be held up or track the leaders its stall 5 draw might not be too bad and its my 4th top rated. 

REIGNING PROFIT is a 3yo who will most likely race in midfield in this race and then its runs on strongly at the finish and comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures so maybe an each way bet. 

HUDDLETON MAC will be an outsider, it looked to need further when racing over 6 furlongs so why they have dropped it to 5 furlongs has baffled me. 

HIYA MAITE its racing style is to track the leaders and comes out in top spot on my figures and will likely have assistance from its stablemate to win this race. 

TRIPLE JAY usually likes to track the leaders but time wise it needs to improve to win this race and stall 9 isn't going to help its cause. 

JEAN'S MAITE my 5th top rated while stall 10 isn't great for a front running type it will ensure its a fast early pace to help its stablemates chances. 

MURBIH this 3yo who won last time out has been known to lead and stall 4 isn't a bad draw in this race but its time only just registered on my figures. 

PRIMO a 3yo who won last time out but it was a very slow time and didn't register on my figures, raised in class here but could be an improving youngster. 

SUMMARY: With four known front running types in this dash it should be fast and furious, I'm not sure I can see anything worthwhile to lay in this race. As for the winner my money will be riding on HIYA MAITE 11/2 who won last time out and seems to like a fast pace to aim at which it should get here where i expect its stablemate will ensure the pace is fast and from stall 7 it could get a good tow into the race if it follows its stablemate towards the rails, it has good trainer stats with a win ratio of 15% at this course over the last 5 years but since the switch to the Tapeta surface the win ratio climbs to 32%, the jockeys win ratio is 19% for the last 5 years but climbs to 28 for just the last year so everything points to connections expecting it to run a big race here.

Hiya Maite 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts