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Showing posts with label Equally Fast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Equally Fast. Show all posts

Tuesday, 22 June 2021

5:50 Bath Racing Tips (23rd June)

BATH 5.50 

THE NOSEY PARKER 8/1 I think this one might be better when racing over a longer distance but in its defence it hasn't run on good or good to firm ground at this distance but one i will look to lay.

EQUALLY FAST 7/2 has a time from Chepstow that makes it my top rated on just 2021 times which is always a positive and 3rd best overall, it is usually held up for a late run.

CORONATION COTTAGE 16/1 looks the most likely pacesetter in the race and using its best time from 2020 it comes out in 2nd top spot so could go well from the front and at the price might be worth an each way punt. 

DANA FOREVER 9/1 has only poor recent form and its only run over this distance on good ground didn't produce a time fast enough to register on my figures.

HEER WE GO AGAIN 11/1 has a time from Windsor this year which would make it my 4th top rated but has a good few spots to make up to win this race.

MYSTIFY ME 7/2 a 3yo who comes 5th best on my figures so would need to improve time wise to win this race but it could possibly do so.

HOT SCOOP 6/1 another 3yo who races as though a longer distance would suit it better when racing on good to firm ground but I couldn't lay it as it could still improve.

MOONRAKER 15/2 comes out in top spot using a time recorded over this c/d in 2020 it is capable of winning this race but isn't one to rely to be honest as it has disappointed before. 

GHERKIN 1/1 hasn't any form over this distance and would perhaps be better when tried over a longer distance.

CHERISH 15/2 it has only slow times over this c/d on good to firm ground and is another that may need a longer distance to show its best. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay the top weight The Nosey Parker 8/1 as I am convinced it needs a longer distance when racing on good to firm ground, betting wise I cannot see any other way than to back 3 runners in this race, EQUALLY FAST 7/2 is my top rated on just 2012 times and the trainer has a decent 17% win ratio with their older horses at this track and the jockey has a 20% win ratio again on all rides for the stable so it makes me think they are expecting a big run but it is only 3rd best on my overall figures but this years times are at times more valuable, CORONATION COTTAGE 16/1 is my 2nd top rated and I think its the one that will set the pace to the race and if allowed an easy lead it could steal the race from the front and has to be worth an each way punt, MOONRAKER 15/2 is my top rated on overall figures and this ones best time was recorded over this c/d which is always a valuable pointer and on its day it is capable of winning this race and if guaranteed to run to its former best it would be my sole bet but it has run poorly before for no apparent reason, I hope you can see there is a valued reason why each one of my three selections could win this race so dutching them looks the best way to attack this race.

Equally Fast 8/1 6th -1pt 
Coronation Cottage 25/1 7th -1pt 
Moonraker 16/1 Unp -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Friday, 1 January 2021

3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (2nd January)


LINGFIELD 3.30 

This looks a competitive race for a class 6 dash, Super Julius ran its best race to date when leading and then finishing 2nd at Wolverhampton but whether it can repeat here is a big question as this is a faster surface and theres 2 natural frontrunners in the field and one of them is Big Time Maybe who might do better when tried over further, both Comeatchoo and Solar Park are capable of producing decent speed figures but this race may not be run to suit them and both will need some luck in the early stages being surrounded by fast starters, Shamshon is another that can go well and may stay on strongly at the finish so could make the frame but my money will be riding on EQUALLY FAST 7/1 who had one run a couple of weeks ago after finishing its turf campaign in September and hopefully that has tuned it up to win here again as it has won 4 of its 6 previous runs over this course and distance it is a possible pacesetter and in the make-up of this race stall 3 looks ideal.

Equally Fast 8/1 9th (-1pt)

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.40 

This race looks very poor as I have only got 4 horses that have managed to register on my figures, Oh So Nice is 4th top but that time was from 2019 and hasn't been in very good form recently but it could race prominently in this race with only one other known pacesetter in the field, Red Allure is 3rd best despite this not being its favourite surface so could make the frame, Dynamo Walt starts of as my joint top rated if I use a 2019 time but only 3rd on 2020 c/d times and the trainers 1-21 record at this course doesn't inspire confidence, that leaves me with the top weight PASSIONAL 6/4 who starts off as my joint top rated but the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it to clear top spot, I think it will be the hot favourite in this race but as long as its a trier I cannot see it getting beat but whenever i back a favourite it seems to come unstuck.

Passional 6/4 1st (+1.5pts) (Betfair SP 2.53)

Total on the day +0.5pts

Friday, 18 December 2020

11:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (19th December)


LINGFIELD 11.45 

A dash with 3 known front runners, I'm not sure A Go Go 3/1 can reproduce its form on this surface so worth a lay, Kaths Lustre 7/2 may need a longer trip therefore worth laying, Starchant and Fairy Fast are my joint 2nd top rated but both from times earlier in the season and they haven't shown much on their recent starts, my money will be riding on EQUALLY FAST 11/2 who is a possible pace setter and should be able to gain control of the rails and once in front it ought to prove hard to catch but the jockey Franny Norton is 0-10 for this stable which surprises me but it surely that must just be a coincidence and he has a chance to break his duck for the stable here. 

Equally Fast 11/2 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

LINGFIELD 1.25 

A very competitive class 2 race i can only see Lomu 10/1 to lay if it drops to a single figure price, time wise I might also take on Premier Power 5/4 it has been in good form but none of its races were as fast as some of these can go on a good day and if favourite wont be of value and its even a shorter than i anticipated, Brian The Snail could stay on at the finish and is going for a hattrick of wins here, i will take a wild punt in this race by backing MERHOOB 12/1 (EW) each way, it has led before and from stall 4 could even grab the rails if it can beat the stall 2 horse out of the stalls, it has the fastest c/d figure for 2020 and that would be 2nd best overall but its best from 2019 pushes it back into top spot. 

Merhoob 12/1 7th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00 Div I 

Quite a poor race where on tissue prices 8 of the 11 runners are predicted to be double figure prices and my top two are in the 3 that are fancied in the betting, The Mackem Torpedo 2/1 could be the favourite but i think it might need further to show its best and might be worth taking on with a lay bet and at the price isn't value to back in my opinion, i will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, ROCKESBURY 13/2 could be the one to set the pace, it hasn't run here before so not 100% sure what to expect but its best time from Chelmsford makes it my top rated on overall figures so could lead all the way if not then my 2nd top rated horse KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 7/2 who is top rated on just c/d times and it was recorded this year which is always a positive. 

Knockabout Queen 13/2 7th (-1pt)
Rockesbury 13/2 8th (-1pt)

Total: -2pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 Div II

This is a strange race where there's not a single horse that has a recorded c/d time from 2020 so I've had to go back to 2019 to find Billyoakes 6/1 best time while in its defence it has only had one c/d run this year so it could make the frame but the trainer/jockey stats are quite low and the price isn't really big enough to back each way, Miracle Garden is my joint top rated horse once again using a 2019 time but again the trainer doesn't have the greatest of stats at this course which leaves me with SWANTON BLUE 28/1 (EW) and this ones time was recorded this year but at Chelmsford and if it takes to this course it could be worth a small each way wager especially at the price on offer. 

Swanton Blue 28/1 1pt EW (+4.6pts)

Total: +4.6pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 

This is a decent looking class 4 race with just one known front runner in Mythmaker 5/1 who is my joint 3rd top rated horse alongside A Sure Welcome 4/1 who likes to track the leaders and both could make the frame if things go their way but neither are each way prices in my opinion, sitting in 2nd top spot is Steelriver 12/1 but its only by 1lb and this one can be held up or track the leaders so could make the frame and is an each way price but my money will be riding on CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 4/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here, stall 10 isn't ideal but a repeat of its time last time out would see it winning this race a shade cosily. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

Sprint number 6 for the day, there's only 11 runners but its a race where I will have to dutch a few of them, ZULU ZANDER 10/1 is top rated on just 2020 c/d times so has to be included and its versatile when it comes to racing tactics, ANOTHER ANGEL 7/2 could be the one to set the early pace and is my 2nd top rated on overall figures and could make the frame but isnt an each way price then add BALLYARE 11/2 into the mix as this one is top rated using a Newcastle time but its best c/d time isn't good enough to even make the frame, I hope I've got the winner within the three selections but my stakes wont be at full strength.

Thursday, 18 June 2020

4:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (19th June)


LINGFIELD 4.25

Typically, weeks without racing and then the Great British summer rains and spoils everything. Thankfully there is an AW race to look at. 

A field of eight horses. 

I hope they all run in case I find an each-way shot. 

Just Glamorous’ best time from 2018 wouldn't see it making the frame. 

Tabaahy 7/2 hasn't run on this surface before but would need to improve for the switch of the surface to win. 

Buniann 9/2 is in the same boat and on my speed figures the two of them have the exact same rating from Newcastle and both look poor value in my eyes. 

Kath's Lustre 7/2 will be trying to stay on at the finish but I think this trip is too short and this fast surface probably won't help its cause. (I would lay it at such short odds.) 

The outsider of the field, Archimedes, is another that should be trying to stay on at the business end of the race but maybe too late to see it winning.

Solar Park is versatile when it comes to running tactics but seems to be on the decline looking at its ratings over the last three years. 

My pennies will be riding on EQUALLY FAST 9/2 who is firstly my top rated and also the only natural front-running type in the race. I'm hoping it can lead from the start and then kick off the bend and hold all challengers at bay.

Equally Fast 6/1 4th 

Saturday, 6 June 2020

5:10 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th June)


LINGFIELD 5.10 

If the rain does come at least it doesn't matter on the AW courses. 

Well not, in my opinion.

I can find three horses to lay (Lorna Cole + Nautical Haven + Krystallite) 

Six of the ten runners have been known to lead so it should be a fast and furious dash. 

George Thomas in stall 10 and Cappananty Con in stall 8 are my joint 4th top-rated and both known frontrunners. 

EQUALLY FAST 11/2 is my top rated and will be carrying my money. It's a frontrunner and stall 5 might be ok. The make-up of this race suggests, if getting to the front, ought to prove very hard to catch. 

However, with so much early pace in the race, they could blow each other brains out by forcing a too fast pace. If they all fade nearing the finish, the one horse that could profit is KATHERINE'S PLACE 12/1 (EW) who will be staying on strongly at the finish and worth an each-way wager.

Equally Fast 11/2 1st (+5.5pts)
Katherine'sPlace 12/1 Unp (-2pts) 

Lay bets: Lorna Cole +1pt, Nautical Haven +1pt, Krystallite +1pt

Total on day +6.5pts



Friday, 7 February 2020

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th February)


SOUTHWELL 2.00 

The bottom four in the handicap hasn’t shown anything worthwhile and would normally be lays but two of them are 3yo which can improve without warning and this race will not take much winning, Eesha Says is my 3rd top-rated and the most likely pacesetter in the race so could go well if allowed an easy lead, Amazing Amaya is in 2nd top spot but I will have a small bet on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 2/1 hoping it can break its AW duck at the 4th attempt after finishing 2nd twice in 2 of its 3 previous goes but I have to say I hate backing favourites mainly because they represent poor value.

Sambucca Spirit 15/2 6th 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.40

Only 6 runners where I can lay (Top Boy + Grayboy) both Six Strings and Sandridge Lad need to improve timewise to win this race but I cannot split GLOBAL MELODY 6/1 and AL SUIT ELLE 5/1 as there is only 2lbs between them on my figures and there's nothing in the trainer/jockey stats to point me to one or the other so I will be backing them both. 

Global Melody 14/1 3rd 
Al Suit Elle 5/1 5th 

Lay bets: Top Boy (+1pt) Grayboy (+1pt) 

Total 0

CHELMSFORD 6.15

This looks and is a competitive affair where I can only find (Tone The Bartone) to lay and I will be dutching 3 of the 8 runners, ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 5/2 is the top-rated using just 2019/20 c/d times, SOMETHING LUCKY 5/1 is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to 2nd top overall, *EQUALLY FAST 7/2 hasn't any form at this course but its best time from Lingfield this year would make it top-rated overall, my stakes won't be at full strength in such a tricky race and the prices don't represent much value but I do my work two days in advance so I don't know the prices and let it influence my analysis. 

Roundabout Magic 6/1 6th 
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd 

Lay bets: Tone The Bartone (- 2pts)

*NR 

Total -4pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

There is nothing in this race I can put up as a lay although I am not sure what to expect from the topweight Irene May who hasn't run at this course before but could possibly find this surface plenty fast enough compared to its best speed figure from Wolverhampton, nearly every other horse in the race has some chance of making the frame, Kath's Lustre is my 2nd top-rated taking into account the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, Alicia Darcy is my original 2nd top-rated on a Lingfield time with only one poor run at this c/d to its name, my money will be riding on my top-rated FANTASTIC FLYER 9/1 who is moved even further clear with its apprentice jockey taking 5lbs off its back and has a good win ratio for this stable. 

Fantastic Flyer 9/1 1st 

Total +9pts

CHELMSFORD 7.45 

Div 1 Not too bad for a class 6 affair of the 12 runners I will look to lay (Black Isle Boy + Krazy Paving + *Caso Do Lago + Compton Abbey) Bahamian Heights would be on my list of potential winners on its best time from 2017 which would make it 2nd top-rated but has been well out of form lately, the topweight Broughton Excels has good trainer/jockey stats and is my 4th top-rated so could go well here but no value at 7/4, Spennys Lass is my 3rd top-rated but is on a losing run of 25 which isn't in its favour, I will be having a bet in this race but my stakes will be kept on the low side but I am taking a punt in hoping that DREAMBOAT ANNIE 16/1 attempts to make all the running as it has done before and at the price I have to have a bet on it. 

Dreamboat Annie 20/1 7th 

Lay bets: Krazy Paving (-7pts) Black Isle Boy (+1pt) Compton Abbey (+1pt) 

*NR 

Total -6pts 

CHELMSFORD 8.15  

Div 2 In this 2nd division, I will look to lay (Under Curfew + Jorvik Prince + Ghost Buy + Indian Affair) Englishman who won its last race is my 3rd top-rated and itis on a c/d time from 2019, sitting in 2nd top spot I have got Kyllukey but this ones losing streak has just reached double figures but it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without warning the same can be said about the one I will back in the race, INVISIBLE STORM 6/1 is on a losing run of 15 but its 4th place finish on its last run I am hoping is a sign that its ready to get back to winning ways. 

Invisible Storm 8/1 Unp (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Under Curfew (+1pt) Jorvik Prince (+1pt) Ghost Buy (+1pt) Indian Affair (+1pt)

Total +3pts

Total on Day +1pt 

Saturday, 25 January 2020

4:05 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets


LINGFIELD 4.05 

A 10 runner race with no known frontrunners in the field, usually means it's hard to analyse how things will turn out during the race, with no early pace then I would look to lay The Groove who may need further to shine, Knockabout Queen hasn't any course form but could dangerous after winning last time out, both Seraphim and Kath's Lustre are capable of running big races and could battle to make the frame, my top rated on just 2019/20 c/d times is Aguerooo who I admit isn't ideally drawn in stall 9 but could go well if getting a clear run when needed but its losing run of 10 shows how hard it is to will with a hold-up type of horse, my top-rated overall is PERFECT SYMPHONY 7/1 who from stall 2 should be able to get a good early position from which to attack and follow up its win from last time out. 

Perfect Symphony 12/1 2nd 
Lay bet: The Groove (+1pt) 

Total 0pts 

KEMPTON 4.30

I've found 3 runners in this race that I will look to lay, (Sing Bertie, It Must Be Faith, Creek Harbour) then Dark Side Dream, Solar Park and Andre Amar could be dangers, Porto Ferro is 2nd top overall but its best time was from 2018 although it hasn't run over this c/d lately, in stall 1 EQUALLY FAST 9/4 who is a frontrunning type is my top-rated overall but its time was recorded at Lingfield and this will be its first run here, top-rated on only c/d times is SPIRIT POWER 5/1 who is another that is known to lead before and should be ok in the make-up of this race from stall 8 and it has good trainer/jockey stats, I will have to back them both in this race and hopefully they will dominate from the front here. 

Spirit Power 5/1 1st Equally Fast 5/2 4th 
Lay bet: Sing Bertie (+1pt) It Must Be Faith (+1pt) Creek Harbour (+1pt)

Total +7pts 

KEMPTON 7.00 

This is a strange race, I have found 3, (Para Mio, Barrington, Waqlas) that I would look to lay, but it is such a competitive affair there's 7 horses that have a chance of going well or winning, there's only 2lbs between Los Camachos, Venture and Enthaar who are my top 3 ratings on just 2019/20 c/d times, Spring Romance would be top on c/d times if I use its best from 2018, the frontrunning Harbour Storm is 3rd top overall using a Wolverhampton time but has only a slow time on this surface while Pride Of Angels is 2nd top overall and at least its time was on this surface but at Lingfield and hasn't run here before over this c/d, in top spot overall is Rock Boy Grey again it's using a Wolverhampton time as it's not run at this c/d before. I am not sure what to make of this race and it is probably best left alone unless the betting says otherwise.

Lay bets: Para Mio (+1pt) Barrington (+1pt) Waqaas (+1pt) 

Total +3pts

Total on day +10pts