3:35 Goodwood Racing Tips (29th July)

GOODWOOD 3.35 

A Group 2 dash over five furlongs, there are 3 known front runners but I think they will set the race up for a finishing type, I'm not sure if i can find anything of value to lay, Lazuli would be my 3rd top rated but I had to go back to 2020 to find that rating and Clarendone House is my 3rd top on more recent ratings and could do best of those racing near the front, I've got Khaadem in 2nd top spot and only just 1lb below RAASEL 4/1 in top spot and this one has been in very good form lately. 

Raasel 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.50 

There looks to be 3 possible pacesetters in this race and of that trio *FREEDOM FLYER 8/1 might do best as it comes out as my 2nd top rated on just 2022 ratings so has to carry some of my money just in case it pinches the race from the front as it is rated only 2lbs below STEELRIVER 6/1 who comes out in top spot and this one also has the best speed figure from just this course since it changed its surface to Tapeta I think Sir Gregory 11/2 is a better prospect on the Polytrack surface and I will look to lay if its a single figure price, Oriental Spirit 9/2 would need to improve upon its best rating from Kempton but this will be its 1st run on this surface so it could possibly improve for the switch or maybe not so I couldn't back it at the price but I'm also not sure I could lay it either. 

*NR

Steelriver 12/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Sir Gregory +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 6.30 

There s 14 runners in this 5 furlong dash and only one front running type, Louis Treize 7/1 may need further to show its best and may be worth laying as long as it doesn't drift in price, the timelines are a little confusing between times on Tapeta at Newcastle and Wolverhampton compared to times here on the same surface, Scale Force 10/1 comes out in top spot on other Tapeta times so could go well here and might be worth an each way interest and it will be trying to stay on at the finish, I will be backing BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 13/2 who comes out in top spot using just times recorded here at Southwell and the trainer has a 19% win ratio at this course with their older horses and is the one that I think will set the pace to the race and i am hoping it can lead all the way to victory. 

Bernard Speirpoint 17/2 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt

MUSSELBURGH 8.20 

Of the 9 runners in this race I can only see Jojo Rabbit who has been known to lead before but time wise it would need to improve a good few spots but if allowed a very easy lead it could possibly pinch this race from the front, both The Thin Blue Line and Never Dark are capable of producing good speed figures but they may be outclassed at this level, Ready Freddie Go likes to track the leaders and could do enough here to make the frame, Only Spoofing is my 2nd top rated and another that likes to track the early pacemakers and is only 2lbs below my top rated horse SHOW ME SHOW ME 12/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and at the price might be worth an each way wager. 

Show Me Show Me 12/1 3rd +1.4pts

Total +1.4pts

NEWMARKET 8.30 

I cannot find a front running type in this field of 6 but 5 of them like to track the leaders so they could ensure there is a decently fast early gallop, Bossipop might need further to show its best so I'm not sure if this race will really suit it, Concierge is my 3rd top rated with Churchill Bay sitting in 2nd top spot but if LORDSBRIDGE BOY 5/1 can reproduce the speed figure it recorded at Salisbury in 2021 it would win this race with a few spots to spare.

Lordsbridge Boy 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1.6pts

6:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (2nd October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

In this race I will look to lay both Stalingrad 11/2 who is still a maiden after 11 races but has made the frame in 7 of those races so maybe its a weak finisher and Alcazan 4/1 who races as though a longer distance would suit it better and its 2 runs over this course and distance have both resulted in slow times. I very often mention the make-up of a race and how I analyse each race and this is a race where I will go through my thinking of how the race could pan out if all the horses run to their usual racing tactics, in my opinion if you don't analyse each horse then they might throw a spanner in your works and then when you analyse why you lot you see a glaringly obvious mistake, isn't hindsight a wonderful thing, but without all the hard work needed you cannot make a long term profit, one that will be carrying some of my money is CANFORD BAY 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and comes out top rated on this years speed figures, stall 10 of 11 doesn't look ideal but here goes my analysis, I think that FREEDOM FLYER 12/1 from stall 4 will be able to get out and grab control on the rails as it is my joint 2nd top rated and if it gets an easy lead could hold on for the win as there is only 1lb between my top two ratings, I think Seeking Perfection from stall 7 will also try to get to the front and vie for the lead but it needs to improve on the clock to win this race, stall 8 horse is well out of form and usually runs on at the finish and the stall 9 horse usually races in midfield so Canford Bay can get out smartly and then follow the stall 7 horse across to the rails without much resistance from the 2 horses drawn nearest to it on its inside and sit just behind the leaders ready to pounce and I am backing them both to cover the angles of a front running type and one that comes from behind the leaders. 

Freedom Flyer 12/1 2nd -1pt 

Canford Bay 9/1 8th -1pt

Lay bets: Stalingrad +1pt, Alcazan +1pt 

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 

Half the runners in this race are 3yo’s but only Giorgio Vasari and Nelson Gay are known as front running types but I doubt they will hold on for the win although the latter is my 4th top rated and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, I will look to lay Caroline Dale 7/1 as it looks better over a shorter distance, Temple Bruer is my 3rd top rated but has a tendency to be slowly away and if doing so here it might struggle to make the frame, the bottom weight Tathmeen comes out in 2nd top spot and is usually held for for a late run and it will be hoping a gap appears along the fence as its got the stall one draw, my money will be riding on EL HOMBRE 5/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and from stall 9 I'm hoping it can follow Giorgio Vasari in stall 8 towards the rail and then get a good position from which to attack in the latter stages of this race.

El Hombre 11/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt