5:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (27th March)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

A class 5 sprint with 9 runners with Woodlands Charm who might need this run for fitness and Cool Lightning 10/3 who is my 4th top rated known as front running types so the latter could possibly do enough from the front to make the frame but I have doubts about its chance of winning this race, Melody Cher 5/1 might need further before it shows its true form while Coup De Force 9/1 might need to race over a shorter distance to show its best form and this pair might be worth laying if of value to do so, Sweet Mist has shown nothing worthwhile and will I expect be the outsider in this race. Angel Amadea is my 3rd top rated so could make the frame, Kensington Agent is my 2nd top rated and usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish but my money will be riding on STARSONG 9/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish, it hasn't run over at this course before but its ratings from both Wolverhampton and Southwell are with 1lb of each other so should be ok running here.

Starsong 9/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bet: Melody Cher +1pt 

Total 0pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 

An 11 runner stakes race over the minimum trip and these rated 50 and under are a lot of the time very hard to analyse and only because I've found a horse that could win or at least should make the frame. I'm not sure if there will be anything worthwhile laying so just looking for the winner. Ellie Piper likes to track the leaders and is 4th top on my figures, Master Sully is 3rd top but that is using a Polytrack rating from Lingfield but its 2 runs over this course and distance have produced slow times low enough not to register on my graphs. Mrs Bagerran 16/1 is a possible pacesetter in this race while stall 11 isn't ideal it might be ok in this race and might be worth an each way interest and if getting across to be at the front it run well but the horse is still a maiden after 27 runs but has made the frame 5 of those race but my top rated horse HARD SOLUTION 12/1 is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and that does include leading and stall 4 might be ideal in the make-up of this race for this one to gain control of the rails and then could prove hard to catch.

Hard Solution 14/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt

Total on the day -1pts

3:20 Southwell Racing Tips (26th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.20 

A class 5 sprint with 11 runners and 2, Walking On Clouds 9/2 and Bare Necessity 7/1 are both front running types but neither are in my top 3 ratings although the latter recorded its best in 2022 so could do best of the pair. Lynns Boy has never won over today's distance while Idoapologise hasn't run here before and both need to improve time wise to win this race so may be worth laying. Dark Shot is my 3rd top rated while Callin's Lad sits in 2nd top spot and they both like to track the leaders and the former may be better over a longer distance, my money will be riding on STARSONG 12/1 who is my top rated and has recorded ratings within 1lb at both here and Newcastle so likes this Tapeta surface, it should be staying on the stronger nearing the finish. 

Starsong 14/1 5th -1pt  

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.50 

A class 6 stakes dash where all bar the top one Ustath carry the same weight and this one who won last time out over 6 furlongs comes out in 2nd top spot on my ratings for this distance so should go well again here although its rating over 6 furlongs is higher than over this distance which it can find a bit too short for it and I expect it will be a hot favourite and that messes up the betting so I doubt there will be anything of value to lay. Sapphire's Moon sits in 4th top spot with Mr Funky Monkey sitting in 3rd top spot but I've got STROXX 7/2 as my top rated so this one will hopefully be with an each way punt and I do like the switch of jockey after showing a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out BUT this one hasn't won before with 34 failed attempts to its name and 13 of those races have been on an artificial surface.

Stroxx 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

Only 8 runners for this stakes race and there's 2 known front running types amongst them, the betting will decide whether there's anything of value to lay with Dick Datchery and Elisheva being the ones most likely to fall into that category. Atrafan has been in good form winning once and being 2nd 3 times from its last 4 races but I expect it will be the fairly hot favourite and is my 4th top rated with Mutabaahy occupying the 3rd top spot and Stronsay in 2nd top spot and being one of the front runners it could go well but my money will be riding on the other likely pacesetter in the shape of ROCKLEY POINT 8/1 so I'm hoping this one can lead from start to finish. 

Rockley Point 8/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.30 Div I

Division 1 of a class 6 dash, I cannot see anything worthwhile to put forward to lay in this race, Rose Bandit likes to race in midfield and is my 4th top rated, Annie Rose might prefer a longer trip but still comes out 3rd top on my figures and will be trying to stay on at the business end of the race, BASHOLO 6/1 and BLACKCURRENT 6/1 both like to track the leaders, in this race that might be Mrs Baggeran, and with the apprentice jockeys allowances there is only 1lb between them with the former doing its best time in 2022 and the latter recorded its rating in 2021 and as its so close between them I will split my stake and back them both. 

Blackcurrent 6/1 5th -1pt 

Basholo 6/1 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 Div II

Another Angel is the only known front running type in this 2nd division and it could do better than its 5th top rated position if allowed an easy lead so could possibly make the frame. Once again i cannot see anything to confidently lay in this division, Elzaal is my 4th top rated and races in midfield or is held up for a late run, Spanish Angel who might prefer a longer distance so should be staying on at the finish is my 3rd top rated, Nellie French won last time out and comes out 2nd top position on my ratings so should run will in this race but my money will be riding on JOSHUA R 7/2 who also won last time out and has been found a good opportunity here to follow up with back to back wins.

Joshua R 5/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.30

Another 8 runner race but in a class 4 sprint, both Minesbiggerthanurs 5/1 and Brazen Bolt 10/1 seem to need further to show their best form so could be possible lays although the former is my joint 3rd top rated alongside Asadjumeirah, the bottom wieght Ballyare comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures but I will be relying on EMPEROR SPIRIT 3/1 who I will be expecting to lead all the way for victory in this race and the trainer has a good 26% win ratio at this course.

Emperor Spirit 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Brazen Bolt -9pts, Minesbiggerthanurs +1pt 

Total -9pts

Total on the day -15pts

5:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (4th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.15 Div I

As to be expected not the best of sprints but I guess not too bad for a class 5 race, there's 12 entrants of which 4 have been known to lead before. Eldeyaar is one of the four but its wins have come in lower class races being a 3yo it could improve hasn't been able to win at this level so far, Jordan Electrics has a fast time from 2021 but it might have been towed along in a fast run race but hasn't won in 4 previous runs on an artificial surface it could make the frame but its been over thirty days and 10 runners since the stable last had a winner which makes me think they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. Hail Sezer 7/2 stays on at the finish over this distance but maybe too late but does have a decent time recorded at Southwell so not something I could lay with confidence but doesn't look value in my opinion. The top weight So Grateful 6/1 needs to improve on both its best time over this course and distance and its rating from Southwell so maybe worth laying if a single figure price. I will be backing REDZONE 10/1 (EW) who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish and stall 10 should be ideal for it in the make-up of this race, the stable has been in good form lately and the jockey booking looks a positive booking and as usual at the price it has to be an each way bet. 

Redzone 12/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 5.45 Div II

I think the early pace will be set by Shes A Danger but I doubt it will do enough to win the race, Huraiz might have been flattered by its best rating at Lingfield last year and hasn't shown much over this course and distance since 2019. Pockley 11/2 could run ok but would need to improve time wise to win this race, if the tissue betting is to be believed then Kapono 5/1 will be the favourite (it isn't) which I cannot understand and if a short enough price to be of poor value then I would look to lay it. STARSONG 9/4 has won its last 2 races over this course and distance and at Southwell and is my top rated on both set of figures so looks to have been found a good opportunity to complete its hat trick and it will be carrying my money. 

Starsong 9/4 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Kapono +1pt 

Total -0pt 

Total on the day -2pts 

2:55 Southwell Racing Tips (1st November)

SOUTHWELL 2.55 

A full house of 14 runners where I think the early pace could be set by Mokaman who happens to be my 2nd top rated so should do enough to at least make the frame, its not been in good form lately so not one I could rely on but might be worth an each way punt, I think Primo will be better when racing over further and might be of value to lay in this race, Rose Bandit who usually races in midfield in the early stages of a race is my 3rd top rated so could run on into the frame, my top rated using both course and distance ratings and the other 2 Tapeta courses is TOPLIGHT 5/1 who usually races in midfield or is held up at the back for a late run and the jockey has a reasonable 15% win ratio for the stable on their older horses. 

Toplight 8/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Primo -4pts

Total -5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 Div I

A ten runner race where the biggest problem is the lack of known front running types so any stakes are automatically lowered, this race might not be run to suit Jackmeister Rudi who might need further to shine, Bayraat is making its handicap debut but will need to improve upon what its shown in its 3 races to date to win this lowly race but never say never, Wee Fat Mac, Griggy, Hilarys Boy and Variety Island are my 5th to 2nd top rated, in order, they are all very closely matched on their speed figures with only 5lbs between them but if CAPTAIN VALLO 8/1 can reproduce its best rating from 2021 at Newcastle it would be winning this race a shade cosily so has to be the one I will be backing. 

Captain Vallo 8/1 1st +8pts

Total +8pts

SOUTHWELL 5.30 Div II

Nine runners in this 2nd division but this times there is some known early paced types with Della Mare is the only one with a rating over today's course and distance so could go well and Big Impact who recorded its best rating at Wolverhampton and is my 2nd top rated on Tapeta rating but not recorded here at Southwell so either or both could make the frame, Gherkin looks better on Polytrack while Tantastic can find this distance too far with a fast early gallop and both could be possible lays in this race. Secret Equity is my 3rd top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere but my money will be riding on STARSONG 9/4, this 3yo won last time out and looks to have been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Starsong 9/4 1st +2.25pts

Total +2.25pts

NEWCASTLE 7.15 Div I

Ten runners in this class 6 sprint, the 3yo One More Dream won last time out in a relatively slow run race and will need to improve time wise but these youngsters can improve dramatically from race to race, if there is a fast early pace Macho Pride might struggle to stay the distance but with only Rockley Point, my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating, known as a front running type this race might not be run at a fast gallop from the off so I'm not sure I can lay anything with confidence, Yaahobby is my 2nd top rated and is another 3yo so it could improve further but I will be backing LADY CELIA 10/1 (EW) in stall 9 who is usually held up for a late run and those drawn middle to high can have an advantage on this course and at the price it has to be an each way punt. 

Lady Celia 10/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 Div II

This 2nd division seems the weaker of the 2 races, there's only Miss Calculation who had led before but that was only on sufferance and may have to do so again here but I don't think this is its favoured surface so may be worth laying along with Kath's Toyboy for the same reasoning. Most of the runners look quite poor and I can only see MY BOY JACK 9/4 as a possible bet, I think it will the favourite to win this race but it hasn't won from 14 runs with 6 of them being on an artificial surface but its rating is quite a few spots above the 2nd placed horses rating and looks well in according to my figures but the lack of a win is a major danger signal.

My Boy Jack 9/4 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Kath's Toyboy -4pts,  Miss Calculation +1pt

Total -4pts 

Total on the day -0.75pts