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Friday, 7 February 2020

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th February)


SOUTHWELL 2.00 

The bottom four in the handicap hasn’t shown anything worthwhile and would normally be lays but two of them are 3yo which can improve without warning and this race will not take much winning, Eesha Says is my 3rd top-rated and the most likely pacesetter in the race so could go well if allowed an easy lead, Amazing Amaya is in 2nd top spot but I will have a small bet on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 2/1 hoping it can break its AW duck at the 4th attempt after finishing 2nd twice in 2 of its 3 previous goes but I have to say I hate backing favourites mainly because they represent poor value.

Sambucca Spirit 15/2 6th 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.40

Only 6 runners where I can lay (Top Boy + Grayboy) both Six Strings and Sandridge Lad need to improve timewise to win this race but I cannot split GLOBAL MELODY 6/1 and AL SUIT ELLE 5/1 as there is only 2lbs between them on my figures and there's nothing in the trainer/jockey stats to point me to one or the other so I will be backing them both. 

Global Melody 14/1 3rd 
Al Suit Elle 5/1 5th 

Lay bets: Top Boy (+1pt) Grayboy (+1pt) 

Total 0

CHELMSFORD 6.15

This looks and is a competitive affair where I can only find (Tone The Bartone) to lay and I will be dutching 3 of the 8 runners, ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 5/2 is the top-rated using just 2019/20 c/d times, SOMETHING LUCKY 5/1 is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to 2nd top overall, *EQUALLY FAST 7/2 hasn't any form at this course but its best time from Lingfield this year would make it top-rated overall, my stakes won't be at full strength in such a tricky race and the prices don't represent much value but I do my work two days in advance so I don't know the prices and let it influence my analysis. 

Roundabout Magic 6/1 6th 
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd 

Lay bets: Tone The Bartone (- 2pts)

*NR 

Total -4pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

There is nothing in this race I can put up as a lay although I am not sure what to expect from the topweight Irene May who hasn't run at this course before but could possibly find this surface plenty fast enough compared to its best speed figure from Wolverhampton, nearly every other horse in the race has some chance of making the frame, Kath's Lustre is my 2nd top-rated taking into account the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, Alicia Darcy is my original 2nd top-rated on a Lingfield time with only one poor run at this c/d to its name, my money will be riding on my top-rated FANTASTIC FLYER 9/1 who is moved even further clear with its apprentice jockey taking 5lbs off its back and has a good win ratio for this stable. 

Fantastic Flyer 9/1 1st 

Total +9pts

CHELMSFORD 7.45 

Div 1 Not too bad for a class 6 affair of the 12 runners I will look to lay (Black Isle Boy + Krazy Paving + *Caso Do Lago + Compton Abbey) Bahamian Heights would be on my list of potential winners on its best time from 2017 which would make it 2nd top-rated but has been well out of form lately, the topweight Broughton Excels has good trainer/jockey stats and is my 4th top-rated so could go well here but no value at 7/4, Spennys Lass is my 3rd top-rated but is on a losing run of 25 which isn't in its favour, I will be having a bet in this race but my stakes will be kept on the low side but I am taking a punt in hoping that DREAMBOAT ANNIE 16/1 attempts to make all the running as it has done before and at the price I have to have a bet on it. 

Dreamboat Annie 20/1 7th 

Lay bets: Krazy Paving (-7pts) Black Isle Boy (+1pt) Compton Abbey (+1pt) 

*NR 

Total -6pts 

CHELMSFORD 8.15  

Div 2 In this 2nd division, I will look to lay (Under Curfew + Jorvik Prince + Ghost Buy + Indian Affair) Englishman who won its last race is my 3rd top-rated and itis on a c/d time from 2019, sitting in 2nd top spot I have got Kyllukey but this ones losing streak has just reached double figures but it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without warning the same can be said about the one I will back in the race, INVISIBLE STORM 6/1 is on a losing run of 15 but its 4th place finish on its last run I am hoping is a sign that its ready to get back to winning ways. 

Invisible Storm 8/1 Unp (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Under Curfew (+1pt) Jorvik Prince (+1pt) Ghost Buy (+1pt) Indian Affair (+1pt)

Total +3pts

Total on Day +1pt