3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (21st January)

LINGFIELD 3.30 

A field of 8 and one known front runner in POWER OVER ME 3/1 and its time from Chelmsford makes it rated 71 on my figures and could feasibly lead all the way, Madrinho is also rated 71 but that is using a 2018 figure, I've got 3 runners all rated 72, Knockout Blow would move to top spot on its own with the apprentices 5lb claim but its best form comes in class 6 races, Shamshon gets its rating from 2019 and hasn't been as good time wise in 2020 or this month, I will also be backing DESERT LAND 6/4 who recorded its 72 rating on its run last time out when winning and could follow up here but i will back them both to cover the angles, they are the first two in the betting which doesn't surprise me and with my ratings making it so close my stakes will be kept low. 

Power Over Me 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP 4.10 )

Desert Land 7/4 5th (-1pt)

Total: +2pts

LINGFIELD 4.00 

Not the greatest of races and then add on that its an apprentice jockeys race muddies the waters, i will look to lay (Everkyllachy 7/2) if its a single figure price as it may not stay the distance, Top Boy can find this trip a bit too far if there's a fast early pace and that might happen here but the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in apprentice races, Storm Melody would be top rated if i used its best time from Chelmsford but its only run over this c/d resulted in a low speed figure, Our Man In Havana could go well and is versatile with its racing tactics so maybe worth an each way wager if of value but my money will be riding on DREAMBOAT ANNIE 7/1 who could lead all the way in this race as it is the only natural front running sort in the entrants. 

Dreamboat Annie 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Everkyllachy +1pt

Total: 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Red Pike who is a 10yo seems to be on a downward spiral and has shown nothing worthwhile for awhile now but the 11yo LUCKY LODGE 11/1 is still going strong and has been found a decent chance to get back to winning ways here and at the price its worth an each way flutter, maybe its stablemate Tahmeen 3/1 will lead and set the race up for it and Tathmeen might even do enough from the front to make the frame but isn't an each Way price, I will also be backing PEARL OF QATAR 2/1 in this race, it is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and the jockey booking looks a positive one and comes out top on my figures. 

Pearl Of Qatar 2/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lucky Lodge 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

Another race where I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, El Hombre 4/1 is capable on its day but the trainer is 1-40 with its older horses at this course and the jockey is 0-14 which is enough to put me off its chances especially at the price, North Wind 12/1 might need a longer trip and the jockeys 0-19 record on the stables older horses makes me wonder if this one will be expected to win but it is a biggish price, Shoot To Kill could try to lead from stall 2 but it might be a bit outclassed at this level, I think/hope the early pace will be set by OUTRAGE 4/1 who has on 4 races been placed in 4 races from its 9 runs over this c/d and could possibly lead all the way here but I will also be backing BIRKENHEAD 13/2 who likes to track the leaders and from stall 1 should get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and the jockey does well for the stable.

Outrage 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Birkenhead 12/1 7th (-1pt)

Total: - 2pts

Total on the day: -2pts

4:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips & Lay Bets

CHELMSFORD 4.00 

This 9 runner race can be split into 2 groups 4 lays, (Our Man In Havana + Lyons Lane + Murqaab + Chillon Castle) Swell Song is still a maiden after 11 races but might improve on its 1st run over this c/d, Seneca Castle won over this c/d in 2017 in a slow run affair and its win the last timeout at Wolverhampton looked impressive but the time was relatively slow so would need to improve again to win this race but could go well beings we know it's in good form, I expect it to be the favourite and will not represent value in my eyes, TERRI RULES 7/1 hasnt run over this c/d before but its best time from Lingfield would make it my 2nd top rated behind BERNIE'S BOY 6/1 who also recorded its best time at Lingfield but also has the top speed figure over this c/d for this year but that c/d time is only 1lb higher than MONARCH MAID 12/1 (EW) and this one is the only one known to be a frontrunner in the field so if allowed to dictate could prove hard to beat and has been done as an each-way punt. 

Monarch Maid 14/1 EW 3rd +3.66pts

Bernie's Boy 6/1 4th (-1pt)

Terri Rules 14/1 7th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Our Man In Havana +1pts, Lyons Lane +1pt, Murqaab +1pt, Chillon Castle +1pt)

Total: +5.66pts

CHELMSFORD 5.10

The topweight Who Told Jo Jo has won and finished 3rd on its last 2 runs but it's still a maiden on the AW after 15 attempts, enough to put me off but it could possibly make the frame, I will be laying 4 in this race, (Wiff Waff + Mansfield + Delegate The Lady + Te Amo Te Amo) ive found 2 possible pacesetters and both have some chance of winning the race, POPPY MAY 11/2 is in stall 2 and if reproducing its best time from 2018 would be 2nd top on my figure, DREAMBOAT ANNIE 16/1 also recorded its best time in 2018 and despite being known to lead it does sometimes struggle to stay the trip if theres a fast early pace but if allowed to set its own pace then it would have every chance, Tawaafoq has one got one time to its name in 2018 that would just make it my top rated but that time is looking very much a fluke, one that could win if the leaders fade is DEEDS NOT WORDS 11/2 who recorded its best time earlier this year and the apprentices 5lb claim could swing things in its favour.

Poppy May 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Dreamboat Annie 18/1 7th (-1pt)

Deeds Not Words 12/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Delegate The Lady -20pts, Wiff Waff +1pt, Mansfield +1pt, Te Amo Te Amo +1pt

Total: -20pts 

Total on the day: -14.44pts

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th February)

SOUTHWELL 2.00 

The bottom four in the handicap hasn’t shown anything worthwhile and would normally be lays but two of them are 3yo which can improve without warning and this race will not take much winning, Eesha Says is my 3rd top-rated and the most likely pacesetter in the race so could go well if allowed an easy lead, Amazing Amaya is in 2nd top spot but I will have a small bet on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 2/1 hoping it can break its AW duck at the 4th attempt after finishing 2nd twice in 2 of its 3 previous goes but I have to say I hate backing favourites mainly because they represent poor value.

Sambucca Spirit 15/2 6th 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.40

Only 6 runners where I can lay (Top Boy + Grayboy) both Six Strings and Sandridge Lad need to improve timewise to win this race but I cannot split GLOBAL MELODY 6/1 and AL SUIT ELLE 5/1 as there is only 2lbs between them on my figures and there's nothing in the trainer/jockey stats to point me to one or the other so I will be backing them both. 

Global Melody 14/1 3rd 
Al Suit Elle 5/1 5th 

Lay bets: Top Boy (+1pt) Grayboy (+1pt) 

Total 0

CHELMSFORD 6.15

This looks and is a competitive affair where I can only find (Tone The Bartone) to lay and I will be dutching 3 of the 8 runners, ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 5/2 is the top-rated using just 2019/20 c/d times, SOMETHING LUCKY 5/1 is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to 2nd top overall, *EQUALLY FAST 7/2 hasn't any form at this course but its best time from Lingfield this year would make it top-rated overall, my stakes won't be at full strength in such a tricky race and the prices don't represent much value but I do my work two days in advance so I don't know the prices and let it influence my analysis. 

Roundabout Magic 6/1 6th 
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd 

Lay bets: Tone The Bartone (- 2pts)

*NR 

Total -4pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

There is nothing in this race I can put up as a lay although I am not sure what to expect from the topweight Irene May who hasn't run at this course before but could possibly find this surface plenty fast enough compared to its best speed figure from Wolverhampton, nearly every other horse in the race has some chance of making the frame, Kath's Lustre is my 2nd top-rated taking into account the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, Alicia Darcy is my original 2nd top-rated on a Lingfield time with only one poor run at this c/d to its name, my money will be riding on my top-rated FANTASTIC FLYER 9/1 who is moved even further clear with its apprentice jockey taking 5lbs off its back and has a good win ratio for this stable. 

Fantastic Flyer 9/1 1st 

Total +9pts

CHELMSFORD 7.45 

Div 1 Not too bad for a class 6 affair of the 12 runners I will look to lay (Black Isle Boy + Krazy Paving + *Caso Do Lago + Compton Abbey) Bahamian Heights would be on my list of potential winners on its best time from 2017 which would make it 2nd top-rated but has been well out of form lately, the topweight Broughton Excels has good trainer/jockey stats and is my 4th top-rated so could go well here but no value at 7/4, Spennys Lass is my 3rd top-rated but is on a losing run of 25 which isn't in its favour, I will be having a bet in this race but my stakes will be kept on the low side but I am taking a punt in hoping that DREAMBOAT ANNIE 16/1 attempts to make all the running as it has done before and at the price I have to have a bet on it. 

Dreamboat Annie 20/1 7th 

Lay bets: Krazy Paving (-7pts) Black Isle Boy (+1pt) Compton Abbey (+1pt) 

*NR 

Total -6pts 

CHELMSFORD 8.15  

Div 2 In this 2nd division, I will look to lay (Under Curfew + Jorvik Prince + Ghost Buy + Indian Affair) Englishman who won its last race is my 3rd top-rated and itis on a c/d time from 2019, sitting in 2nd top spot I have got Kyllukey but this ones losing streak has just reached double figures but it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without warning the same can be said about the one I will back in the race, INVISIBLE STORM 6/1 is on a losing run of 15 but its 4th place finish on its last run I am hoping is a sign that its ready to get back to winning ways. 

Invisible Storm 8/1 Unp (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Under Curfew (+1pt) Jorvik Prince (+1pt) Ghost Buy (+1pt) Indian Affair (+1pt)

Total +3pts

Total on Day +1pt 

1:45 Lingfield Winning Racing Tips (10th January)

LINGFIELD 1.45 

Only 5 runners and to be honest a very tricky race to be confident of making a final conclusion, Flowers On Venus, Swiss Pride, and Moon Trouble have all been known to lead before but the bottom-weight has a lot to prove and may need this run for fitness, Swiss Pride would need to improve time-wise to win this race so if MOON TROUBLE 13/8 does get to the front it could prove hard to catch if it can reproduce its best Chelmsford time here on the same surface. 

Moon Trouble 13/8 2nd

LINGFIELD 3.55

Of the 10 entrants in this race I would look to lay 3 of them but the other 7 all have some chance of winning and with 3 known frontrunners it should be a true run race, Perfect Symphony has a good time from Chelmsford to make it 2nd top overall but stall 9 isn't ideal for its chances, Deeds Not Words is 3rd top overall and top-rated on times from 2019 onwards, stall 1 is ideal and a losing streak of 19 is off-putting, so I will have a small bet on DREAMBOAT ANNIE 8/1 who is one of the frontrunners and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

Dreamboat Annie 8/1 3rd 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

With just Fen Breeze is known as a frontrunner it could go ok from stall 6 but would need to improve timewise to hold on, Alicia Darcy on a losing run of 13 is my 3rd top-rated but only 1lb below Knockabout Queen in 2nd top spot, my money will be riding on KLOPP 11/2 who has won or been placed in half of its runs so I'm hoping it can add to its win total here. 

Klopp 11/2 2nd 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 

In this 9 runner race, only Katherine Place my 2nd top-rated on 2019 c/d times is known as a frontrunner but drops to 5th spot overall so it may not be able to do enough to hold on for the win, there is also 2 horses that have only Irish form to work with on the AW form so they could be potential dangers so any stakes will be kept low, five of the runners are on losing runs of at least 10, 4 runners haven't shown much form lately, then one more that might not like the going, so my money will be riding on QAARAAT 9/2 who is top-rated on just 2019 c/d times and joint top overall and stall 2 should be fine.

Qaaraat 9/2 4th 

Related post: Want to know where to find every UK racecourse and social media on one handy website? 

6:05 Newcastle Racing Tips (8th November)

As you may have realised I haven't been posting for the last 2 or 3 days because I've had no internet connection, thanks to Talk Talk, I am now rushing around to try and catch up on results, speed figures etc so tonights blog will be short of the usual depth but all the essentials will be covered. 

NEWCASTLE 6.05

There's not a lot to write about in this race and its not a race to be betting too heavily in, the favourite is Astro Jakk who won at Southwell and being a 3 year old could still improve and it would need to win this race on a different surface,Paddy Power is capable of going well if in the right mood but hasn't shown much since the early part of this year, EPEIUS 10/1 is well weighted on its best form and it is my top rated and the trainer has a decent strike-rate at this course, my 2nd top-rated is MAGICAL SPIRIT 11/2 this 3-year-old is a front running sort and could still be able to improve from its win last time out so I will back them both to cover the angles. 

Magical Spirit 6/1 2nd 
Epeius 16/1 3rd   

NEWCASTLE 7.35 

I would leave this race well alone, those that do have a recorded speed figure are at the lower end of the scale and there's quite a few 3-year-olds and other lightly raced sorts and there's not enough data to form a confident solution 

CHELMSFORD 7.55 

My top 4 ratings in this race are closely rated and they all have good trainer and/or jockey stats so I will go with dutching, DREAMBOAT ANNIE 25/1 and PEARL SPECTRE 8/1 who are both front running types but not ideally drawn in stalls 9 and 10,the latter is my overall top rated but only by 1lb, the 3rd selection is BROUGHTON EXCELS who is 2nd top-rated on this years times and 4th top-rated overall and has the ideal draw in stall one to get a good early prominent position from which to attack late on, another that should be staying on is the 3 year old AQUARIUS 8/1. 

Broughton Excels 6/4 2nd 
Pearl Spectre 12/1 4th
Dreamboat Annie 25/1 6th  
Aquarius 25/1 9th  

NEWCASTLE 8.05

There isn't a lot of known early speed sorts in this race but The Grey Zebedee could take up the pacesetters role but I doubt it can hang on to lead all the way as its outside my top 3 ratings, the early favourite is Jeffrey Harris 5/2, it did win last time out but over 6 furlongs and may get found out for early speed dropped down to 5 furlongs here so I would look to lay it just because it looks poor value in my eyes, I've co-3rd top-rated horses in Mable Lee from a time in 2018, Gleaming Arch and Kibaar, so they could all be battling to make the frame, Extrasolar maybe on the decline with age but a time from 2018 would see it winning cosily here but its recent form has been quite poor, I will be having a small bet on GUARDIA SVIZZERA 9/1 who is, of course, my top rated but its still a maiden on the AW after 11 runs and its 19 races since it last won but the jockey does quite well for this trainer at this course.

Guardia Svizzer 9/1 7th 

4:20 Lingfield Racing Tips (3rd October)

LINGFIELD 4.20 

This class 6 race looks very good for the class and there's 3 known frontrunners in the field so it should be a fast run 5 furlong dash, 2 of the possible pacesetters are ASK THE GURU 14/1 and SANDFRANKSKIPSGO 14/1 who both have times that could win the race but they are also not very consistent but ignore them at your peril as they could bounce back to form without warning and the 3rd possible pacesetter is BROGAN'S BAY 3/1 and this one 2nd top-rated on 2019 times, so it looks like the race will be won from the front and I will have to go with dutching the 3 of them but myabe tilting in favour of the more consistent Brogans Bay. 

Sandfrankskipsgo 25/1 1st 
Ask The Guru 14/1 8th 
Brogan's Bay 3/1 9th

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15

A lot of the 11 runners in this race have been in good form which makes it hard to eliminate many if any and there's not really much data to work with so I will have to concentrate on my top pair of ratings, ARCHIMEDES 15/2 is my 2nd top-rated on its best time from Newcastle recorded this year so could be hard to catch for most of these but I do have LANDING NIGHT 25/1 rated higher but this ones best time was recorded in 2018 but it also has a faster time this year at Newcastle, so I will back them both to cover the angles but maybe slightly in favour of my highest-rated horse. 

Landing Night 10/1 4th 
Archimedes 15/2 8th 

CHELMSFORD 8.00

I can only see one horse who has led before so it might not be a fast run affair but it is my 2nd top-rated so DREAMBOAT ANNIE 50/1 could prove hard to catch for most of these and at the price it as to be an each-way wager, there's only 1lb between Gottardo my 4th top-rated and Sir Hector in 3rd spot, my top rated but only by 1lb is DESERT FOX 4/1 who usually stays on well at the finish, so I will go with backing the 2 horses to cover the angles. 

Dreamboat Annie 50/1 8th 
Desert Fox 4/1 2nd

CHELMSFORD 8.30

This looks a poor race but I guess that's to be expected for a class 7 affair and to be honest I cannot narrow it down to just 1 selection, Such Promise 20/1 is a possible pacesetter but is still a maiden after 11 runs and has only one 3rd place finish in those 11 races, Good Business 20/1 will be running on at the finish and its best time from 2018 would make it my top-rated, Broughton Excels 7/4 won last time out and is 2nd top-rated on 2019 times over this c/d, top-rated on 2019 times is Ar Saiorse 50/1 who can sometimes struggle to stay 6 furlongs if there's a fast early pace so might be ok here, i will probably dutch all 4 of them but my stakes wont be at full strength but there won't be much value when the favourite is so short.