3:42 Ripon Racing Tips (2nd August)

RIPON 3.42 

Just 6 runners in this class race but luckily 2 of them have been known to lead but one of them Macho Pride 9/4 has poor trainer stats and I would look to lay it especially at such a short price, the other is Bossipop 9/1 who seems to be getting a little bit slower each year and its best time this year is quite a bit lacking and I expect it will be an outsider, Fortimour has a decent time from 2020 at this course and distance and could go well, if I took notice of Gale Force Maya’s time from 2019 it would be my top rated but has been nowhere near that since that year but I will be backing PAWS FOR THOUGHT 5/1 who will be staying on strongly at the finish and this race should suits its style of racing. 

Paws For Thought 11/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Macho Price +1pt

Total 0pts 

KEMPTON 4.20 

A class 4 and a pitiful 4 runners and none of them are known as front runners so its hard to analyse, I couldn't lay any of them and I will take a punt on KATH'S LUSTRE 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly so I'm hoping it can cover any moves and prove the stronger at the finish and in my opinion is the value call in this race. 

Kath's Lustre 15/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.07 

I can only see Niagara who has led before but it is still a maiden after 8 runs but does have a time on turf that would make it my 2nd top rated so has to be feared, I cannot find anything of value to put forward as a lay as most will be biggish prices, At Your Service is my 4th top rated using a time from 2019 and hasn't been in good form lately, I will be backing 2 in this race the top weight SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 15/2 is my 3rd top rated and the trainer has been in good form in the last 2 weeks and it will be staying on at the finish, my top rated RAABEH 11/2 would be my sole selection if it wasn't for the trainers 0-18 in the last 2 weeks and the horse is still a maiden after 18 runs and 13 of those runs have been on AW tracks. 

Sambucca Spirit 15/2 6th -1pt 

Raabeh 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Total -2pts

WINDSOR 6.45 

A 16 runner race with 4 that have led before and I think/hope that it can be won from the front, I cannot see anything of value to lay as most horses will be double figure prices, there's a few that could go well looking at snippets of form they have shown, Total Commitment who usually tracks the leaders, Lihou who recorded its best time over this course and distance and will be trying to stay on at the finish, Open Wide has a time from 2020 that could put it in the mix, my 4th top rated is Operate who is one of the likely pacesetters, Tinto is 3rd top but it is using a 2020 time and its not been anywhere near that level so far this year, Treacherous is 2nd top rated and will be staying on at the finish but its best time came from 2020 but I will be backing my top rated A SURE WELCOME 16/1 (EW) who is a possible pacesetter and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and has decent 17% trainer stats and 15% jockey stats which makes me think connections are expecting a big run in this race and if possible it would be a decent each way wager. 

A Sure Welcome 28/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts

WINDSOR 7.45 

I hope all 8 stand their ground so there is 3 places which I want to have an each way bet, I will look to lay Sarah's Hope 8/1 who will be trying to stay on at the finish but on the clock it will probably be too late to win this race, there is 3 known front running types so it should be a true run race especially as they are my top 3 ratings, the 3yo Toptime comes out 3rd best but has to improve a few spots to win this race, Lethal Blast is my top rated on just 2021 times and must have every chance but I will be taking a punt on UNION ROSE 16/1 (EW) who comes out 3rd best on 2021 times but has a time from 2020 at Bath that takes it to the top spot and hopefully if it gets to the front could be hard to catch but I am hoping its a double figure price so I can take a bit of insurance with an each way wager.

Union Rose 33/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bet Sarah's Hope +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -6pts

3:27 Beverley Racing Tips (3rd July)

BEVERLEY 3.27 

A 12 runner race where it is very competitive between my top five ratings, I will look to lay Obee Jo who may prefer some cut in the ground and it was a slow time when it finished 3rd on good to firm last time out and may also prefer a longer distance, East Street Revue seems to be gradually getting a little bit slower each year and is another I will look to lay, Night On Earth hasn't been in form lately and comes out 4th best on my figures, Young Tiger is 2nd top on just 2021 times and 3rd top overall but has poor trainer/jockey stats with their older aged horses, Latin Five is my top rated on 2021 times but drops to 2nd on overall figures but the jockeys 0-6 for the stable is a bit off-putting but I might back it as a covering bet but my main bet will be DARK SHOT who hasn't done a fast time so far this year but its best time from Leicester last year would see it winning a shade cosily but this ones trainer/jockey stats are on the poor side so my stakes will be kept on the low side but the trainers record for the last 2 weeks has been 2 wins from just 9 runners so i have to back it. 

DARK SHOT 7/2 1PW 2nd -1pt  

OBEE JO 4/1 2PL +2pts

EAST STREET REVUE 7/1 2PL +2pts

Total +3pts

CARLISLE 7.20 

Of these 11 runners I can see 3 that like to lead and Denzil's Laughing is one of them but it sets a slower pace when allowed to lead and wont be able to do that here so it becomes a lay in my opinion if a single figure price, another possible pacesetter Shesadabber only comes out 5th top rated on my figures so I doubt it could hold on for the lead but I also doubt it is fast enough to lead with a faster horse in the race, Gunnerside comes out 4th best using a time from this year at Ayr, Afandem has a time that makes it my 3rd top rated but I have a feeling that time might be a one off where it got towed along in a fast run affair so I think it might have been flattered and a shorter price than it ought to be, Debawtry is actually my top rated by 2lb’s but its recent form has been way below that level and the jockeys 0-4 record for the stable also puts me off its chances so I will be putting my money on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 12/1 who is the 3rd front runner in the race and if getting to the front it ought to prove hard to catch and the trainer does have a good 23% win record with their older horses and I like the jockey booking as it is his first ride on this horse. 

SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 12/1 1PEW 5th -2pts 

DENZILS LAUGHING 8/1 2PL +2pt

Total on the day +3pts

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th February)

SOUTHWELL 2.00 

The bottom four in the handicap hasn’t shown anything worthwhile and would normally be lays but two of them are 3yo which can improve without warning and this race will not take much winning, Eesha Says is my 3rd top-rated and the most likely pacesetter in the race so could go well if allowed an easy lead, Amazing Amaya is in 2nd top spot but I will have a small bet on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 2/1 hoping it can break its AW duck at the 4th attempt after finishing 2nd twice in 2 of its 3 previous goes but I have to say I hate backing favourites mainly because they represent poor value.

Sambucca Spirit 15/2 6th 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.40

Only 6 runners where I can lay (Top Boy + Grayboy) both Six Strings and Sandridge Lad need to improve timewise to win this race but I cannot split GLOBAL MELODY 6/1 and AL SUIT ELLE 5/1 as there is only 2lbs between them on my figures and there's nothing in the trainer/jockey stats to point me to one or the other so I will be backing them both. 

Global Melody 14/1 3rd 
Al Suit Elle 5/1 5th 

Lay bets: Top Boy (+1pt) Grayboy (+1pt) 

Total 0

CHELMSFORD 6.15

This looks and is a competitive affair where I can only find (Tone The Bartone) to lay and I will be dutching 3 of the 8 runners, ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 5/2 is the top-rated using just 2019/20 c/d times, SOMETHING LUCKY 5/1 is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to 2nd top overall, *EQUALLY FAST 7/2 hasn't any form at this course but its best time from Lingfield this year would make it top-rated overall, my stakes won't be at full strength in such a tricky race and the prices don't represent much value but I do my work two days in advance so I don't know the prices and let it influence my analysis. 

Roundabout Magic 6/1 6th 
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd 

Lay bets: Tone The Bartone (- 2pts)

*NR 

Total -4pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

There is nothing in this race I can put up as a lay although I am not sure what to expect from the topweight Irene May who hasn't run at this course before but could possibly find this surface plenty fast enough compared to its best speed figure from Wolverhampton, nearly every other horse in the race has some chance of making the frame, Kath's Lustre is my 2nd top-rated taking into account the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, Alicia Darcy is my original 2nd top-rated on a Lingfield time with only one poor run at this c/d to its name, my money will be riding on my top-rated FANTASTIC FLYER 9/1 who is moved even further clear with its apprentice jockey taking 5lbs off its back and has a good win ratio for this stable. 

Fantastic Flyer 9/1 1st 

Total +9pts

CHELMSFORD 7.45 

Div 1 Not too bad for a class 6 affair of the 12 runners I will look to lay (Black Isle Boy + Krazy Paving + *Caso Do Lago + Compton Abbey) Bahamian Heights would be on my list of potential winners on its best time from 2017 which would make it 2nd top-rated but has been well out of form lately, the topweight Broughton Excels has good trainer/jockey stats and is my 4th top-rated so could go well here but no value at 7/4, Spennys Lass is my 3rd top-rated but is on a losing run of 25 which isn't in its favour, I will be having a bet in this race but my stakes will be kept on the low side but I am taking a punt in hoping that DREAMBOAT ANNIE 16/1 attempts to make all the running as it has done before and at the price I have to have a bet on it. 

Dreamboat Annie 20/1 7th 

Lay bets: Krazy Paving (-7pts) Black Isle Boy (+1pt) Compton Abbey (+1pt) 

*NR 

Total -6pts 

CHELMSFORD 8.15  

Div 2 In this 2nd division, I will look to lay (Under Curfew + Jorvik Prince + Ghost Buy + Indian Affair) Englishman who won its last race is my 3rd top-rated and itis on a c/d time from 2019, sitting in 2nd top spot I have got Kyllukey but this ones losing streak has just reached double figures but it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without warning the same can be said about the one I will back in the race, INVISIBLE STORM 6/1 is on a losing run of 15 but its 4th place finish on its last run I am hoping is a sign that its ready to get back to winning ways. 

Invisible Storm 8/1 Unp (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Under Curfew (+1pt) Jorvik Prince (+1pt) Ghost Buy (+1pt) Indian Affair (+1pt)

Total +3pts

Total on Day +1pt